Savings Rate

Elizabeth Warren’s War On The Poor

We should not quarrel with Senator Warren’s stated goal of protecting the least powerful in society, but we should take issue with many of Senator Warren’s proposed strategies to achieve her stated goal - because they don’t work.

Peak Youth

The world will experience "peak youth" in 2020 for the first time in human history, as the number of people aged over 65 is expected to outnumber those under 5 years old.

The Death Of The Virtuous Cycle

Current economic policy is not simply flawed in its logic and application but actually destructive. As should be evident to all by now, these experimental monetary and fiscal policies provide short term economic relief but only serve to exaggerate the problems they claim to solve. The elegant Virtuous Cycle that propelled western economies to prosperity has been quietly dismantled and replaced with an unproductive imitation. This new, Un-Virtuous Cycle euthanizes discipline and prudence in exchange for the immediate gratification of debt-fueled consumption.

US Government "Finds" Americans Had $70 Billion More In Disposable Income

Just one week after the US Department of Commerce quietly slashed historical US capex spending by billions of dollars following a major data revision it was time for another major revision to a series that is nearer and dearer to most Americans' hearts, namely Disposable Personal Income. Here, the US Dept of Commerce just "revised" personal wages high enough to add over $70 billion in disposable income to US pockets over the past 6 months.

Personal Spending Spikes Most Since Aug 2009 As Fuel Costs Surge

Having disappointed in March (just +0.1% MoM), expectations for April's personal spending were sky high at +0.7% MoM, despite expectations of a 0.4% rise in incomes. Analysts were not disappointed as the headline spending print was a 7-year high +1.0% MoM spike driven by a 3.8% MoM surge in Energy spending. With income rising as expected at 0.4% MoM, and thanks to revisions, the savings rate tumbled to its lowest since 2015.

Grant Williams Warns Of Looming 'Wealth Tax', Says "Own Physical Gold, Not ETFs"

"I don't buy gold, I own it. I don't buy gold at $1,100 because I think it's going to go to $1,200. I buy it for what it does, not what the price is, the price is the last consideration for me. It's not just an asset anymore it's the answer to a lot of people's questions.. the most important stage of this is next and that is the resolution between the paper price and the physical asset. I think when we get to that point where people want to own gold, ETF's won't suffice anymore."

Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund's Opinion

So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly. While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.  We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

Everything Changed In 1980 - Why The Fed Is Wrong

Unfortunately, for Mr. Rosengren, since the average American was never allowed to actually deleverage following the financial crisis, and still living well beyond their means, economic growth will remain mired at lower levels as savings continue to be diverted from productive investment into debt service.  The issue, of course, is not just a central theme to the U.S. but to the global economy as well.  After seven years of excessive monetary interventions, global debt levels have yet to be resolved. If the Fed does proceed in hiking rates in the current environment, it will likely be a “policy error” which will be regretted in the not too distant future as debt service costs rise thereby further reducing consumers ability to “consume.”

The Washington Post Accuses Stingy Americans Of Ruining Obama's Recovery

Dear broke American consumers which once made up the world's most vibrant middle class: please stop being such a nuisance and source of confusion to nice Op-Ed columnists at the WaPo, the WSJ and, of course, the Fed and their $4.5 trillion in direct injections into the offshore bank accounts of America's wealthiest 1%, and instead go ahead and splurge all your savings on trinkets, gadgets and gizmos you don't need. Only that way will Obama's recovery be truly complete.

According To Deutsche Bank, The "Worst Kind Of Recession" May Have Already Started

According to Deutsche Bank the worst kind of a recession, an "endogenous one" in which labor demand plunges as "corporations are not just tired of negative profit growth, but also because they are drawing a line in the sand from the perspective of defending margins" may be imminent... or is already here because based on "payroll reports like last week’s suggest it could be around here."

The Central Bank War On Savers - The Big Lie Beneath

The central bank war on savers is rooted in a monumental case of the Big Lie. Here is what a retired worker who managed to save $5,000 per year over a 40 year’s lifetime of toil and sweat in a steel factory now earns in daily interest on a bank CD. To wit, a single cup of cappuccino. Yet the central bankers claim they have absolutely nothing to do with this flaming economic injustice.