Sears

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Frontrunning: August 22





  • Ukraine accuses Russia of invasion after aid convoy crosses border (Reuters)
  • Hunt for Foley’s Killer Spans Old Policing and Tech Tools (BBG)
  • U.S. Probe Examines GM Lawyers (WSJ)
  • Argentina accuses U.S. Judge Griesa of "imperialist" attitude (Reuters)
  • Violence-weary Missouri town sees second night of calm (Reuters)
  • Geneva Banks Break 200-Year Silence to Unveil Earnings (BBG)
  • Richest Jailed Putin Foe Says Ukraine Fears Sparked Prosecution (BBG)
  • Disclosure of Failed Attempt to Rescue James Foley Is Criticized (WSJ)
  • Execution of U.S. journalist reveals the changing business of war coverage (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: August 21





  • FTW: Europe Stocks Rise as Data Signals Need for Stimulus (BBG)
  • More de-escalation: Dozens die in Ukraine in street battles, Donetsk shelling (Reuters)
  • Calm largely holds in Missouri after grand jury opens shooting investigation (Reuters)
  • Attorney General Eric Holder Vows Thorough Probe of Ferguson Shooting (WSJ)
  • World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Slows Emerging Market Investment (BBG)
  • Market Chilly to Argentine Debt Proposal (WSJ)
  • Israeli air strike kills three Hamas commanders in Gaza (Reuters)
  • Retooled Hamas Bloodies Israel With Help From Hezbollah (BBG)
  • Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers (WSJ)
  • Fed Debates Early Rate Increases (WSJ)
 
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Fed Fueled M&A Destroys Capital





The world’s central bankers have given companies the urge to merge. Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity has already reached $2.2 trillion this year according to Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence, up 70% from this time a year ago. The deals are big, with eight acquisitions, each over $5 billion, being announced in just a single week in July. However CEO buying sprees do not create new jobs and new products that make our lives better, but are instead just wasteful malinvestments that destroy capital. The cost of capital is integral to making these assumptions. The lower the assumed interest rate or cost of capital, the higher the price for the acquisition that the models will justify. Once interest rates go up, these valuation models will be blown to pieces.

 
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Canary In A Handbag: Why Coach Hit The Skids





For the last two decades Coach (COH) could do no wrong. Its aspirational handbags flew off the shelves at hefty prices, causing its sales to soar from $1.3 billion to $5.1 billion during the 10-years ending in fiscal 2013. Better still, its EPS soared by 6X, representing a 20% earnings growth rate over the same period. Greatest of all, its share price peaked at nearly $80 in 2012 after having opened the 21st century at $3 per share. Needless to say, the believers and speculators who got on board for the 27X gain in twelve years were fabulously rewarded, as was its founder and largest stockholder, Lew Frankfort, who became a billionaire along the way. So the capitalist dream is still working in America, right? Not exactly.

 
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Feds Bust "One Of The Largest Food Stamp Frauds Ever"





With nicknames like "The Money Wizard" and "Gran Hustle," 88 people have been indicted in what the FBI calls "one of the largest federal food program frauds ever." Grocery stores were created for the express purpose of laundering WIC (Women, Infant & Children) and Food Stamp (EBT) funds from willing benefits-receivers who were given discounted cash for the "food" stamps canvassed from "low income neighborhoods" in Georgia. The government seeks the forfeiture of $20 million in bank accounts and assets, including two luxury vehicles, a 2008 Mercedes Benz and a 2008 Land Rover. Exceptional!

 
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Has The Next Recession Already Begun For America's Middle Class?





Has the next major economic downturn already started? The way that you would answer that question would probably depend on where you live. If you live in New York City, or the suburbs of Washington D.C., or you work for one of the big tech firms in the San Francisco area, you would probably respond to such a question by saying of course not. In those areas, the economy is doing great and prices for high end homes are still booming. But in most of the rest of the nation, evidence continues to mount that the next recession has already begun for the poor and the middle class.

 
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Frontrunning: May 27





  • Vietnam, China trade accusations after Vietnamese fishing boat sinks (Reuters)
  • SEC Set to Spur Exchange Trading (WSJ)
  • Bank of Japan quietly eyes stimulus exit (Reuters)
  • Japan Risks Low Growth Even as Easing Spurs Inflation (BBG)
  • Hello Japan: Bond Market Message to Fed: Your 4% Rate Outlook Is Too High (BBG)
  • Malaysia, UK firm release satellite data on missing MH370 flight (Reuters)
  • Fighting rages in eastern Ukraine city, dozens dead (Reuters)
  • Bad Credit No Problem as Balance-Sheet Bombs Rally 94%  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Asset-Backed Drive Rouses Academic Skeptics (BBG)
  • For-Profit Colleges Face Test From State, Federal Officials (WSJ)
 
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The Retail Death Rattle Grows Louder





The inevitable shuttering of at least 3 billion square feet of retail space is a certainty. The aging demographics of the U.S. population, dire economic situation of both young and old, and sheer lunacy of the retail expansion since 2000, guarantee a future of ghost malls, decaying weed infested empty parking lots, retailer bankruptcies, real estate developer bankruptcies, massive loan losses for the banking industry, and the loss of millions of retail jobs. Since we always look for a silver lining in a black cloud, we predict a bright future for the SPACE AVAILABLE and GOING OUT OF BUSINESS sign making companies.

 
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Frontrunning: May 23





  • The Fed can't print trade? World Trade Flows Fall in First Quarter (WSJ)
  • PBOC’s Zhou Says China May Have Housing Bubble in ‘Some Cities’ (BBG)
  • ECB's Weidmann - Reviving ABS market not task for central bank (Reuters)
  • LOL: Fitch upgrades Greece by a notch to 'B'; outlook stable (Reuters)
  • LOL x2: Spain Sovereign Debt Rating Upgraded by S&P (BBG)
  • China Will Vet Tech Firms After Threatening U.S. Retaliation (BBG)
  • US to claim victory over China in WTO car dispute (BBG)
  • Obama urges Democrats to vote in midterms, attacks Republicans (Reuters)
  • U.S. Military Pushes for More Disclosure on Drone Strikes (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: May 22





  • McDonald’s Workers Arrested at Protest Near Headquarters (BBG)
  • U.S. Sends Troops to Chad to Hunt for Abducted Nigeria Girls (BBG)
  • BofA Scrapping Market-Making Unit Amid Trading Scrutiny (BBG)
  • Biggest attack in years kills 31 in China's troubled Xinjiang (Reuters)
  • Intense Fighting Flares in Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Fed Officials Tussle Over Labor Market Slack (Hilsenrath)
  • Ikea Economics Lure Central Bankers Seeking New Tools (BBG)
  • When Putin ordered up new hospitals, his associates botched the operation (Reuters)
  • Norway’s $33 Billion Man Steps Up Search in Asia Real Estate Bet (BBG)
 
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27 Huge Red Flags For The U.S. Economy





If you believe that the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction, you really need to read this article. As we look toward the second half of 2014, there are economic red flags all over the place.

 
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Frontrunning: May 15





  • More than 20 dead, doctor says, as anti-China riots spread in Vietnam (Reuters)
  • Russia's Gazprom plans Singapore stock exchange listing (Reuters)
  • Inside Europe’s Plan Z (FT)
  • Ukraine slides deeper toward war as Russia warns to vote (BBG)
  • Fast-Food Protests Spread Overseas (NYT)
  • BOJ Beat, Officials Could Upgrade Outlook for Capex (WSJ)
  • Euro-Zone Economy Shows Weaker-Than -Expected Expansion (WSJ)
  • Yahoo to YouTube Ads Spreading Viruses Rile Lawmakers (BBG)
  • New York Times Ousts Jill Abramson as Executive Editor, Names Dean Baquet (BBG)
  • NYT Publisher Said to Always Have Clashed With Abramson (BBG)
  • Google gets take-down requests after European court ruling - source (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: May 14





  • Vietnam mobs set fire to foreign factories in anti-China riots (Reuters)
  • Recession-Baby Millennials Scarred by U.S. Downturn Spurn Stocks (BBG)
  • U.S. Agents Start Hunting for Sanctioned Russians’ ‘Shiny Toys’ (BBG)
  • Russia moves to oust US from International Space Station (FT)
  • China Central Bank Calls for Faster Home Lending in Slump (BBG)
  • Geithner Must Give S&P Documents in U.S. Fraud Suit (BBG)
  • Samsung's 'crown prince' in focus as father hospitalized (Reuters)
  • Yahoo buys mobile 'self-destruct' messaging app Blink only to shut it down (Reuters)
  • Goldman’s Twitter banker joins hedge fund (FT)
  • Keyword being "unexpectedly": Sony Unexpectedly Forecasts Loss Amid PC Restructuring Costs (BBG)
 
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The All-Time-High In The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is A Hoax





The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index is the only stock market index that covers both the second and the third industrial revolution. Calculating share indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and showing this index in a historical graph is a useful way to show which phase the industrial revolution is in. Changes in the DJIA shares basket, changes in the formula and stock splits during the take-off phase and acceleration phase of industrial revolutions are perfect transition-indicators. The similarities of these indicators during the last two revolutions are fascinating, but also a reason for concern. In fact the graph of the DJIA is a classic example of fictional truth, a hoax.

 
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