Sovereign Risk

Tyler Durden's picture

Why Trump Is Right On Trade Agreements





Free trade is a great concept, as are free markets and freedom.  The problem is none of these things exist in practice because they don’t provide sufficient advantages to the ruling class.  The Fed and HFT systems now dominate global markets, western nations systematically overthrow any (freely elected) foreign government that doesn’t bow down to them and free trade agreements are put in place to ensure investors maximize profits no matter what the costs to society.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Which Countries Have The Highest Default Risk: A Global CDS Heatmap





Sweden beats USA and Germany as the least likely to default on its bonds but at the other end of the global sovereign risk spectrum lie two socialist utopias - Venezuela (CDS just shy of 6000bps) and Greece (CDS around 1800bps) are the nations most likely to default.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Sovereign Risk Soars As Systemic Fears Mount





"Whatever it takes" is not enough, it would appear as the fragility and interconnectedness forced upon the European banking/sovereign finance ponzi has rapidly come home to roost for Draghi and his followers. Peripheral bond risk has flipped from "hold your nose" buys to panic sells with Portugal risk exploding 200bps in the last week. As the European banking system's credit risk rises 2012-crisis-like, it seems belief in a bigger bazooka is fading fast.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Sovereign Risk Soars As Bank Contagion Spreads





The ECB's "whatever it takes" ponzi strategy of keeping the dream alive in Europe's financial system has finally been caught as rapid collapse in the banking system is contagiously spreading to peripheral sovereigns once again. Portugal risk spreads are up 120bps in the last 3 weeks and Spain and Italy are soaring over 35 and 50bps respectively as the almost self-dealing nature of banks buying "risk-free" EU bonds and repoing for cash via The ECB comes home to roost...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Bank Bloodbath Crashes Bond, Stock Markets





We're gonna need more "whatever it takes"...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Italy, Greece, Financials Crash As European Stocks, Peripheral Bonds Plunge





Led by a broad-based collapse in financial stocks, European markets extended and accelerated their plunge today. Thanks to the increased systemic linkages enforced by The ECB, peripheral sovereign risk is spiking as their national banking systems crash. Every European nation is now in at least correction since the end of QE3.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Stocks Suffer Worst Start To Year Ever





Led by a 4.3% collapse in Germany's DAX index, European Stocks plunged 2.5% today which is the worst start to a year ever. European credit markets spiked higher in risk. 10Y bund yields tumbled over 6bps and peripheral sovereign risk spreads jumped 10-15bps. Not a good start for Draghi and his pals...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Mid-East Stocks, US Futures Slide As Goldman Warns Of Paris Attacks' Negative Implications For Markets





Following the weakness in the few minutes of after-hours trading on Friday's US session that overlapped with the first headlines from France, we are getting a first glimpse at the posible fallout from the Paris terror attacks. The Middle Eastern stock markets tumbled significantly with Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share index down 3% (biggest drop in 3 months) to its lowest since December 2012, and Dubai's FMG Index plunged 3.7% to its lowest since 2014. Short-run implication for the equity market is likely to be negative according to Goldman, with a notably higher risk premium regarding uncertainties about the medium-term political implications.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Bullion Allowed As Collateral in China





This development is an important one for the gold market and is bullish for gold. It shows, once again, that gold is slowly but surely becoming a cash equivalent and as money again.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

German Economic Council Backs Exit For "Uncooperative" Eurozone Members





The German Council of Economic Experts is out with a new report on euro area crisis management which backs state bankruptcies and euro exits for governments deemed "uncooperative." "A permanently uncooperative member state should not be able to threaten the existence of the euro. In view of this, the Council of Economic Experts recommends that the withdrawal of a member state from the currency union must be possible as an utterly last resort," the council says.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman: The Greek Solution "Exposes The Whole System To Collapse"





"In our view, there are two main factors keeping investors sidelined. One is the residual implementation risks involved in the latest arrangements...  The second, of much broader importance, is the accumulated evidence of the inadequacy of the Euro area's present fiscal governance, which takes up too many resources and exposes the whole system to collapse."

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

The Question Is Not Is Deutsche Bank the Next Lehman, It's "Is Lehman the Face of Banking in the Future





Is Deustche Bank the next Lehman is likely the wrong question to be asking. Is Lehman the template for European banking may be more to the point. Take it from the guy that called the Lehman debacle 5 months before the fact.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A Bubble On Thin Ice





The current asset bubble depends on a number of perceptions that could easily be put to the test by unexpected developments. There is a widespread consensus on a number of issues. This includes the belief that the economy will strengthen, that the emergence of “price inflation” is practically impossible, that “QE” will always guarantee rising asset prices, and that central banks have everything under control. Now we learn that in addition to this, a surprisingly large number of traders has no experience beyond the ZIRP & QE era of recent years. Meanwhile, the market’s underpinnings in terms of liquidity exhibit numerous weaknesses.

 
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