Sovereign Risk

German Default Risk Spikes To Highest Since Brexit As Merkel Lead Plunges To Multi-Year Low

Germany’s Social Democrats narrowed the gap with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc to the closest in more than four years, reinforcing a poll bounce after they chose outsider Martin Schulz to challenge Europe’s longest-serving leader. As Bild reports, the 6-point surge in opposition support was the biggest ever recorded for the party... and may explain why German sovereign risk spiked to its highest since Brexit.

What Happens Next In Italy: Here Is Goldman's Take

While the market overcame its initial scare following yesterday's counter-establishment Italian referendum vote, and European stocks proceeded soar in the overnight session by the most since Trump's presidential victory, what happens next in Italy is largely unknown. What follows are Goldman's snap thoughts on the Italian next steps.

Raoul Pal: Business Cycle Tinder For A Global Banking System Fire

"...after every single two-term presidential election (i.e. when the incumbent changes) and there is a 100% track record of a recession within the next 12 months. It either starts just beforehand or starts afterward, but within 12 months there is a 100% chance of a recession... Even if they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten like crazy... I think the Fed is almost an irrelevance at this point."

The Secret Global Court: Why Corporate Criminals & Corrupt Politicians Desperately Want TPP

Obama needs to ensure he gets well compensated after leaving office for a job well done protecting, defending and further enriching the global oligarch class. This is precisely why he’s so adamant about passing the TPP during the upcoming lame duck session of Congress, when he knows “representatives” who no longer face reelection can be coerced or bribed into voting for this monumental public betrayal. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ins’t really a free trade deal, it’s a way for global oligarchs to consolidate, grow and protect their enormous wealth. The whole thing is absolutely disgusting and epitomizes all that is wrong and unethical about the world today.

Is Portugal The Next "Shoe To Drop" In Europe?

Portugal 10-year yields imply that investors are starting to get a little worried about an October ratings decision that could make Portugal the EU's next big bailout candidate.

European Bank Stress Test Preview: What To Expect And How To Trade It

While the main event in today's European bank stress test was leaked moments ago, when Monte Paschi board member Turicchi said that the bank has finalized a bank consortium for a critical capital hike, suggesting that contrary to last minute jitters the bank has found the needed number of willing banks to provide €5 billion in fresh capital it needs resulting in the bank's 3rd bailout in the past 2 years - this one courtesy of the private sector - there may still be some surprises.

Citi Is Stunned How Quickly The "Extraordinary Political Backdrop" Is Deteriorating

"These developments point to a marked increase in political risks in systemically-significant countries. At the start of the year, we flagged many of these as  well as introducing our thesis that rising Geopolitical Risks, accompanied by rising "Vox Populi" risks such as Brexit and changing US politics, were at risk of converging in new and powerful ways. Even so, we did not anticipate quite how many would transpire, let alone within such a compressed timeframe."

Here Is Why One Credit Rating Agency Believes Russia Is Safer Than The US

If posed with the question who has the better credit rating, the United States or Russia, most people would presumably pick the United States. However, that is not the case for Dagong Global Credit Rating Co, one of the three biggest credit rating companies in China. Here's why...

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.

Deutsche Bank's Shocking ECB Rant: Warns Of Social Unrest And Another Great Depression

"In the 1920s the Reichsbank thought it could have 2,000 printing presses running day and night to finance government spending without creating inflation. Around the same time the Federal Reserve allowed more than a third of US deposits to be destroyed via bank failures, in the belief that banking crises where self-correcting. The Great Depression followed.... Today the behaviour of the European Central Bank suggests that it too has gone awry."