• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Steve Liesman

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Fed Back-Pedals Hawkishness, Hints At Policy Error: "Monitoring Global Developments", Admits "Growth Slowed Last Year"





Treading a fine line between losing all credibility and exposing their total devotion to the stock market, it appears The Fed is maintaining its delusion that everything will be fine as they unwind the largest and most experimental monetary policy of all time, and yet for the first time we get proof that the Fed admits it made an error by hiking into a slowing economy: "labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.

 
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Newsflash From The December 'Jobs' Report - The US Economy Is Dead In The Water





Here’s a newsflash that CNBC didn’t mention. According to the BLS, the US economy generated a miniscule 11,000 jobs in the month of December.

 
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Larry Lindsey Crushes Steve Liesman's Dreams, "The Foolish Fed's Bubble Policy Always Ends Badly"





"The idea of lettting an asset bubble run is literally one of the most foolish things a central bank can do... they always end badly;"

 
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Japan To Unleash Inflation... By Fabricating Data





What do you do when you're a government statistician and the economic data doesn't say what you want it to say? Why you "adjust" it of course.

 
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Is The Fed About To Become "Weather Dependent?" Goldman Says El Nino To Boost Winter Growth





There's been no shortage of discussion about the weather among economists this year as "snow in the winter" took the blame for a bevy of bad data in H1 while summer is Citi's new scapgoat for any weakness in August and September payrolls. Meanwhile, unseasonably mild temps took the fall for poor October retail sales and now, going into the winter, it's all about El Nino.

 
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Why Most Investors Will Never Go Back To Stocks Again, In One Chart





... for many equities are simply, as SocGen puts it, "too scary."

 
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'Lipstick'-ing The GDP Pig Amid An Epochal Global Deflationary Swoon





The talking heads were busy this week powdering the GDP pig. By averaging up the “disappointing” 1.5% gain for Q3 with the previous quarter they were able to pronounce that the economy is moving forward at an “encouraging” 2% clip. And once we get through this quarter’s big negative inventory adjustment, they insisted, we will be off to the ‘escape velocity’ races. Again. No we won’t! The global economy is in an epochal deflationary swoon and the US economy has already hit stall speed. It is only a matter of months before this long-in-the-tooth 75-month old business expansion will rollover into outright liquidation of excess inventories and hoarded labor. That is otherwise known as a recession.

 
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Bernanke: The Courage To Print - Reading Between The Lies





The Fed needs to extricate itself from manipulating the financial markets. It needs to end backstopping market liquidity. It must never again print Trillions of new “money” out of thin air. Because so long as the marketplace perceives that the markets are "too big to fail", there will be speculative excess, major securities markets mispricings and Bubble fragilities. No one – average investor or sophisticated financial operator – has a clue as to the degree Fed policies have distorted asset prices.

 
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Citi Discovers The Culprit For Poor Jobs Data...





The shark jumping continues as Citi says its analysts "have found serious residual seasonality in payroll reports for the period from August through October"...

 
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Chinese Propaganda Full Retard: Burst Stock Bubble Declared A Good Thing





Having blamed the entire financial crisis on one reporter (despite the implicit government encourage of people to "invest in stocks"), detained "malicious sellers" (which killed the entire futures market), and now cracking down on overly-aggressive stock-pumping by "sinister stock squads," we thought we had seen it all from China. Until now... CHINA OFFICIAL: LUCKY THAT STOCK BUBBLE BURST BEFORE TOO LATE...

 
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The US Economy Is Not Awesome And It's Not Decoupled





When the bubble vision stock peddlers get desperate, they talk decoupling. So by the end of yesterday’s bloodbath you would have thought China was on another planet, and that “commodities” were some trinket-like collectibles gathered by people who don’t wear long pants, drink coca cola or jabber on their cell phones. On these fine shores, of course, its all awesome from sea to shinning sea. So don’t be troubled. Buy the dip.

 
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The Song Remains The Same





We love reading quotes from Hussman in 2000 and 2007. The air is getting pretty thin up here. A stock market driven by Google, Apple, Netflix and a few other tech darlings with no earnings does not make a market. Time is running out for the bulls. The same morons on CNBC ridiculed and scorned his facts then and they scorn and ridicule him now. Do we trust Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman or John Hussman? Guess.

 
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Personal Spending Surges Most Since August 2009 As Savings Rate Tumbles





After 6 straight months of decline in annual spending growth, May saw YoY spending pop 3.6% (the most since Dec 2014). After an unchanged April, May expectations for spending were a 0.7% jump but the data blew that away, printing a 0.9% MoM jump - the biggest since August 2009 and biggest beat since Jan 2013. Personal Income only grew at 0.5% (still the highest MoM jump since March 2014) driving the savings rate down to 5.1% - the lowest since December. Before Steve Liesman and his buddies get too excited - spending was driven mainly by a 4.72% surge in spending on Energy goods & services - not exactly what the discretionary buying consumer-oriented society that is required to keep the dream alive was looking for. Spending Ex-Energy is the lowest since March 2011. Finally we note non-durable spending topped durables and this exuberant GDP-boosting spendfest (un-save-fest) provides more ammo for an earlier Fed rate hike.

 
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