Third Point

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Frontrunning: February 27





  • Central Banks With Negative Rates Spur Question of How Low to Go (BBG)
  • DHS to keep running: Congress edges toward domestic security funding patch (Reuters)
  • Setbacks for Tsipras Stir Discord in Greek Ruling Party (BBG)
  • Greece’s Challenge: Appeasing Its Creditors and Its Population (WSJ)
  • Buffett, a cheerleader for America, takes his checkbook abroad (Reuters)
  • Oil’s Big Swings Are the New Normal: Market has rarely been more volatile (WSJ)
  • Ukraine Left Behind as Russian Stock Gains Are Unmatched (BBG)
  • Brent rises to $61, set for first monthly gain since July (Reuters)
 
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Dan Loeb Is Scared Of "The Haunted House Market"





2015 has been marked by increasing volatility, prompting Third Point's Dan Loeb to characterize this as a “haunted house market” where a new scary event lurks around each corner. Out of this year’s 25 trading days, 22 have had intra-day moves in the market of more than 1%..."Avoiding dramatic downside in individual names and sizeable losses during inevitable sell-offs will be key to succeeding in this market and navigating successfully through the haunted hallways of 2015."

 
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The Best And Worst Hedge Funds Of January 2015





It is no secret that January was a bad month for bulls: it was in fact the worst start to the year in years, especially following that surprising last day selloff, which took the YTD drop as of January 30 to an unheard of, at least under global central-planning, -3.1%. It wasn't just the broader market: some of the more marquee hedge funds names also found it a tough time to navigate the transition of global easing away from the Fed to the ECB even as other central banks like the SNB lost all credibility, such as Fortress, Third Point, Perry, Maverick, Brevan Howard and various others, all of which had negative returns for the majority of the month based on HSBC data. But it wasn't all bad news: in fact, as the table below shows, the January outperformers generated higher relative returns than the worst funds of the month,

 
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Frontrunning: November 24





  • Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
  • PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
  • Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
  • UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
  • US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
  • Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
  • Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
  • How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
  • The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: November 17





  • Scuttled deals worth $580 billion put hedge funds on back foot (Reuters)
  • Mounting Pressure on OPEC Spurs More Wagers on Oil Rally (BBG)
  • It's not just US real estate: Chinese Students at U.S. Universities Jump 75% in Three Years (BBG)
  • Frankfurt Open for Yuan Clearing as Liquidity Rises (BBG)
  • Obama defends healthcare law after adviser criticism (Reuters)
  • Michael Hasenstab Bets Big in Controversial Places (WSJ)
  • Facebook seeks foothold in your office (FT)
  • Russia Seen as Greatest Threat in Poll as Oil Erodes Putin Power (BBG)
  • Falling Oil Prices Test OPEC Unity (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: November 14





  • "The hate us for our..." Americans’ Cellphones Targeted in Secret U.S. Spy Program (WSJ)
  • Ukraine and Russia take center stage as leaders gather for G20 (Reuters)
  • Moscow and Kiev trade accusations; U.S. warns Russia against escalation (Reuters)
  • Heartland Central Banker Calls Asset Bubbles Top Concern (BBG)
  • U.S. Said to Give Banks December Deadline in FX Probe (BBG)
  • Series of Failures Enabled White House Breach, Report Finds (WSJ)
  • Yen plumbs seven-year trough on likely Japan sales tax delay (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Chase Bankers Said to Lead Moscow Departure (BBG)
 
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"Irish Eyes Are Smiling" But Should They Be?





As Europe gets hungrier and hungrier for a feel-good story, as Brussels longs more and more for a poster child for its 'crisis management' efforts of 2008-2013, as Dublin politicians get closer and closer to facing the crisis-hit electorate, the sunshine being lavished by politicians and the media onto Ireland's economy is likely to get only brighter. It might not feel much warmer, though, on the ground. Nor will it stave off the onset of winter.

 
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Frontrunning: November 7





  • The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase's Worst Nightmare (Matt Taibbi)
  • Explains the midterm results: Optimism precedes job data (Reuters)
  • EU Dream Ebbs Amid Weak Growth, Putin's Jets, 25 Years After Wall Came Down (BBG)
  • SEC Probing Trading Activity at Apple Supplier GT Advanced (WSJ)
  • Boehner touts bills to repeal Obamacare, build Keystone (Reuters)
  • China Gold Buying Means Price Floor to Standard Chartered (BBG)
  • High-Speed Ad Traders Profit by Arbitraging Your Eyeballs (BBG)
  • Central Banks Can’t Be ‘Only Game in Town’ Boosting Economies (BBG) - less talking, more getting to work
 
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The Complete Robin Hood Conference Summary





From Tepper's "Short The Euro," call (which he hopes does better than his "bond bull is over" call) to Icahn's "HY credit is in a bubble... and I am short" warning, The 2-day Robin Hood conference in NYC had something for everyone. Paul Tudor Jones thinks US equities will outperform the rest of the world this year but "the piper will be paid one day," and Larry Fink says "equities are health" after last week's correction... and Whitney Tilson is short Lumber Liquidators (trade accordingly).

 
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Gold, Global Growth, & The Schism In The High Church Of Bernanke





The meaning of events and market signals differ hugely from country to country, tribe to tribe, generation to generation. Ferguson does not mean the same thing as Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not mean the same thing as Tahrir Square or even Tiananmen Square. Monetary policy does not mean the same thing in Beijing as monetary policy means in Washington, which in turn does not mean the same thing as monetary policy in Paris or Rome. But we have an innate tendency to act as if these signals DO mean the same thing, and we can totally wrong-foot our investments as a result. The biggest thing happening in the world today is the growing divergence between US monetary policy and everyone else’s monetary policy with three HUGE implications: one for investment strategy selection, one for global growth, and one for … (gulp!) gold.

 
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Asset Forfeiture – How To Steal Americans' Hard Earned Cash With Zero Repercussions





While the epidemic of law enforcement theft is problematic throughout the country (see these egregious examples from Tennessee and Michigan), it appears Texas has a particularly keen love affair with the practice. Not only did last year’s story take place in Texas, today’s highlighted episode also takes place in the Lone Star State. This time in a town of 150 people called Estelline, which earns more than 89% of its gross revenues from traffic fines and forfeitures. In other words, from theft.

 
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Frontrunning: July 7





  • Bond Anxiety in $1.6 Trillion Repo Market as Failures Soar (BBG), as reported first by Zero Hedge
  • As Food Prices Rise, Fed Keeps a Watchful Eye (WSJ)
  • Yellen’s Economy Echoes Arthur Burns More Than Greenspan (BBG)
  • Draghi’s $1.4 Trillion Shot: Silver Bullet or Misfire? (BBG)
  • Israel's Netanyahu phones father of murdered Palestinian teen (Reuters)
  • Ukraine says forces will press forward after taking rebel stronghold (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs Brings Forward Rate Forecast as Treasuries Drop (BBG)... you mean rise?
  • Super typhoon takes aim at Japan (Reuters)
  • Kidnapped Nigerian girls 'escape from Boko Haram abductors' (Independent)
  • Merkel says U.S. spying allegations are serious (Reuters)
 
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Austrian Economics Vs Clueless Trolls





"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win." Mahatma Gandhi

"It is no crime to be ignorant of economics... but it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance." - Murray Rothbard

 
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Frontrunning: May 16





  • Bank of England sees 'no housing bubble' (Independent)
  • ‘If the euro falls, Europe falls’ (FT)
  • India's pro-business Modi storms to historic election win (Reuters)
  • Global Growth Worries Climb (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin Foundation hit by resignations over new director (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Goes All In After the Flop (WSJ)
  • SAC's Steinberg loses bid for insider trading acquittal (Reuters)
  • Beats Satan: Republicans Paint Reid as Bogeyman in 2014 Senate Races (BBG)
  • Tech Firms, Small Startups Object to Paying for Internet 'Fast Lanes' (WSJ) - but they just provide liquidity
  • U.S. Warns Russia of Sanctions as Ukraine Troops Advance (BBG)
  • Major U.S. hedge funds sold 'momentum' Internet names in first-quarter (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: May 9





  • Omnicom, Publicis call off proposed $35 billion merger (Reuters)
  • Apple in talks for $3.2bn Beats deal (FT)
  • Alibaba IPO Grew Out of ’80s Chaos and Guy From Goldman (BBG)
  • Nigeria's president at WEF pledges to free kidnapped girls (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Joins Wells Fargo in Rolling Out Jumbo Offerings (BBG)
  • It's 1999 all over again: Young Bankers Fed Up With 90-Hour Weeks Move to Startups (BBG)
  • ECB stimulus talk knocks euro, peripheral yields (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Currency Crown Lost to Citigroup on Volatility (BBG)
  • London Taxis Plan 10,000-Car Protest Against Uber App Use (BBG)
  • Pfizer Holders Could Face Tax Hit in a Deal for AstraZeneca (WSJ)
 
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