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13 Economic Tales To Take You Into 2013

Earlier today, in what can only be summarized as an epic meltdown, NJ governor Chris Christie proceeded with an even more epic rant against House speaker John Boehner, in narrow terms, and House Republicans in broader, for killing the $60 billion Sandy Assistance bill, whose funding would have offset one full year of the just legislated tax hikes on the rich which would add $62 billion annually to the Treasury (or alternatively would have been unfundable for the next 2 months while the US struggles to pay its mandatory bills courtesy of having breached the debt ceiling). Alternatively, all Americans could just agree to accept less welfare and entitlement benefits to show their solidarity for New Jersey and fund the recovery of the Tristate area by a "shared sacrifice" instead of going the default route and demanding even more deficit spending - something that would naturally saddle the next generation with even more pain, not the current, far more entitled one - but in this country that is an absolutely ludicrous proposition. Below is a clip of the entire Christie performance which is a must see for sheer indignation entertainment value alone.

Even if the US economy really takes off in 2013, don`t look for oil and gasoline demand to overtake supply in the equation.

It seems between photos of the family Zuckerberg brunching Christmas Day and the revolt against the rules change, Instagram has been slapped with an exodus of users. As NY Post reports, Instagram, which peaked at 16.4mm users the week it rolled out the policy change, had fallen to 12.4mm users as of yesterday - a massive 25% plunge. The terms of service change which enabled the selling of user's photos 'without any compensation' seems to have perturbed more than a few tweens (including Justin Bieber and one of the Kardashians). How quickly the worm turns as these 'fad' sites come and go; from its busiest 24 hours over Thansgiving to a 25% plunge by Christmas - and all this as Twitter steps up its competition. We are sure that Facebook was priced for this decline though and will monetize the mobile exodus.

Enjoy your job in North Dakota while you can as in four years, those shale oil projects are no longer sustainable.

The U.S. federal deficit is now exceeding $1 trillion dollars every year —up from $161 billion in 2007, the last year before the financial crisis. Spending is up some $1 trillion, as outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements have increased by an amount equal to the entire 2013 military budget – a budget which may again surpass the combined military expenditure of every other nation in the world. U.S. unfunded liabilities are now estimated at between $50 trillion and $100 trillion and by the end of the decade (in less than just 7 years), runaway entitlement spending will require shutting down the military or crippling many other vital domestic spending programs to head off massive deficits that will likely lead to a dollar crisis and significant inflation. No matter what deal is eventually agreed, whether before or after the new year, it will at best nibble at the edges of the trillion dollar annual deficits that are being piled up. While all the focus has been on the so called U.S. ‘fiscal cliff’, amnesia has taken hold and many market participants have forgotten about the far from resolved Eurozone debt crisis – not to mention looming debt crisis in the UK and Japan.

Did you hear me yesterday...or do I need to say it again.  Buy the dip in US Treasuries..it is the only way.

As previously discussed on the govttrader blog, the US Treasury selloff from the 1st half of December has come and gone.  Its time for the next trade.

With various "gun control" proposals flying fast and furious (precisely the reactionary kneejerk reaction Ron Paul warned would happen), some of which as brilliant as RFIDing every gun in existence, supposedly including the tens of millions of illegal and unregistered ones, it is perhaps appropriate to see how another authoritarian government - China - deals with its own equivalent of the touchy Second Amendment, its "First", or the right to free speech in a society which for decades has had none, and where the internet makes free speech regulation impossible (very much any gun control in a nation in which there is one gun for every person is impossible). China's solution, according to Reuters, the requirement of a real name registration for internet access for every person, "extending a policy already in force with microblogs in a bid to curb what officials call rumors and vulgarity...A law being discussed this week would mean people would have to present their government-issued identity cards when signing contracts for fixed line and mobile internet access, state-run newspapers said."

• Global Currency Tensions Rise (WSJ) - in other words, when everyone eases to infinity, nobody eases
• EU to give Spain, France more time to cut deficit (Reuters) - But not because their economies are not "recovering" fast enough, oh no.
• As we expected, Grupo Bimbo considering a bid for Hostess' snack cakes and bread brands (NY Post)
• Time for bus-control: Eleven children killed in latest Chinese bus crash (Reuters)
• Greece Should Write Off Billions of Overdue Taxes, Report Says (BBG) - not all taxes in perpetuity?
• India clamps down on gang-rape protests, PM appeals for calm (Reuters)
• But Meredith Whitney said... Push for Cheaper Credit Hits Wall (WSJ)
• For Greece, last major austerity package, says eurozone official (Kathimerini)...  "unless there is another one"
• Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks (BBG) ... and two flash crashes... and $15 trillion in artificial central bank props
• Goldman Sachs Takes Long View Over Payouts (FT)
• Cliff Would Strike Low Incomes Hard (WSJ)
• Afghan policewoman kills US police adviser (AP)
• For Sale in Japan: Electronics Assets (WSJ)

It’s cold out, I’m just trying to turn up the heat......

Presenting Dave Collum's now ubiquitous and all-encompassing annual review of markets and much, much more. From Baptists, Bankers, and Bootleggers to Capitalism, Corporate Debt, Government Corruption, and the Constitution, Dave provides a one-stop-shop summary of everything relevant this year (and how it will affect next year and beyond).

First gun sales soared, then Wal-Mart ran out of guns, then parents, stunned by the popular response in the aftermath of the Newtown mass murder which saw the White House threaten to curb the Second Amendment and lead to an even more unprecedented scramble for guns and ammo, and seeing nothing but confusion (but lots of bickering meant to extract nothing but political brownie points) out of the government instead of any hope of actual protection, decided it was time for some vigilante protection. The end result: sales of bulletproof backpacks have soared, with sales exploding as much as 500% since Friday. And since the white line from a defensive to an offensive posture is very thin, it is likely only a matter of time before we get the first media report of a 6 year old armed with a 44 caliber during recess.

2 days ago US Treasury 10yr yields were 10bps cheap vs stocks.  Well, not anymore.  US Treasuries now have both technical and cyclical forces on their side for the next 1-2 weeks.  Let us explain how...