Twitter

While the H7N9 birdflu epidemic is still raging in China, with 4 news deaths bringing the total confirmed death toll to 31 (and who knows how many unconfirmed) on 129 infections leading to a mortality rate that is simply staggering, even if the mordibity rate is largely a function of Chinese data censorship, Europe and the middle east may be set for a viral breakout of their own. First is the case of Saudi Arabia where two more people have died from novel coronavirus, a new strain of the virus similar to the one that caused SARS, in an outbreak in al-Ahsa region of Saudi Arabia, the deputy health minister for public health said on Sunday. What is more troubling is that with the lack of accurate newsflow out of Saudi Arabia, come unforeseen consequences, such as the eventual spread of the virus from its localized region to a new area, such as Europe or in this case France, to start. Reuters report that a "second diagnosis of the new SARS-like coronavirus has been confirmed in France, the Health Ministry said on Sunday, in what appeared to be a case of human-to-human transmission. The new infection was found in a 50-year-old man who had shared a hospital room with France's only other known sufferer, the ministry said in a statement."

The Bernanke Chicago speech became little more than a side show Friday. He did say the Fed was keeping a watchful eye on yield risk-taking given ZIRP. He’s a little late to that observation methinks.

The blue line in the chart below? That's the total holdings of Government (cash and derivative) securities of PIMCO's flagship $293 billion Total Return Fund. At a net exposure of 40% of total fund AUM, or roughly $117, PIMCO has not been more bullish on Treasury and Agency securities since July 2010, when Gross was selling into the QE2 Jackson Hole preannouncement panic. If also is the first time since the summer of 2010 that the fund holds substantially more government-related securities than MBS. Why is this notable? Because moments ago, Gross used his now favorite public service distribution medium, twitter, to announced that "The secular 30-yr bull market in bonds likely ended 4/29/2013." Uhm. No.

The main story overnight is without doubt the dramatic plunge in the Yen, which following the breach and trigger of USDJPY 100 stops has been a straight diagonal line to the upper right (or lower for the Yen across all currency crosses) and at last check was approaching 101.50, in turn sending the USD higher in virtually all jurisdictions. However it is not so much the Yen weakness that was surprising - a nation hell bent on doubling its monetary base in two years will do that - but the accelerating response in neighboring countries all of which are seeing Japan as the biggest economic threat suddenly and all are scrambling to respond. Sure enough, midway through the evening session, Sri Lanka cut its reverse repo and repurchase rate to 9% and 7% respectively, promptly followed by Vietnam cutting its own refinancing rate from 8% to 7%, then moving to Thailand where the finance chief Kittiratt called for a rate cut exceeding 25 bps, and more jawboning from South Korea suggesting even more rate cuts from the export-driven country are set to come as it loses trade competitiveness to Japan. Asian financial crisis 2.0 any minute now?

Earlier it was Bank of America reporting a perfect trading quarter, with profitability on 60 out of 60 trading days, and now it is JPMorgan's turn. Moments ago, Jamie Dimon's firm filed a 10Q in which, among other things, it announced than in the quarter ended March 31, it was profitable on 63 out of 63 trading days and had one day in which it gained more than $200 million, or said simply another case of trading perfection unmatched anywhere in the known universe except perhaps by sellers of newsletters on Twitter. It was not immediately clear why JPM got a freebie of three extra profitable trading days in the quarter compared to BofA, although we suspect Jamie Dimon's presidential cufflinks may have something to do with it. What is clear is that the probability of one firm trading without error for an entire quarter, let alone two (and soon more as other banks file their 10-Qs) is slim to quite slim. Although not nearly as slim as whoever the hot chick is on Dancing with the Stars this season, which we are confident is the only thing the bulk of the population cares about. For everyone else, there's E(rror free)-trade.

After the "humiliating" performance in Q4 2012, when Bank of America had a whopping 2 trading loss days out of 61, in has managed to redeem itself in the first quarter of 2012, when not only did it record seven trading days when it generated revenue of over $100 million daily, but more importantly it had zero days (of 60 total) with any net trading losses: a track record that can only be matched by any daytrader on Twitter. After all, what is better than trading when there is no risk of loss.

While there have been no new military attacks on Syria since Sunday morning, something more peculiar happened in the past few hours, when according to Akamai and various other Internet traffic trackers, Syria has literally gone "dark", or, as Umbrella Security Labs describes it, as if "Syria has largely disappeared from the Internet."

If you thought that Baupost's Seth Klarman would be the next to join twitter, #timestamp his minute-holding trades, ignore the money-losing ones, trumpet his winners, always make money, scream at all those who don't agree with his "strategy", and otherwise become what is known these days as a (momentum) investor, we have some bad news: it's not happening. Here's why.

Physical demand for coins and bars internationally continues and is the strongest since the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse on September 15, 2008, and the consequent global financial crisis.

Government mints, refiners and bullion dealers internationally are reporting demand as high as in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis.

• U.S. Bulks Up to Combat Iran (WSJ)
• Taking sides in Syria is hard choice for Israel (Reuters)
• Gold Traders Most Bearish in Three Years After Drop (BBG)
• It's a Hard Job Predicting Payrolls Number  (WSJ)
• EU economies to breach deficit limits as economic picture darkens (FT)
• IBM Says U.S. Justice Investigating Bribery Allegations (BBG)
• At Texas fertilizer plant, a history of theft, tampering (Reuters)
• SAC Sets Plan to Dock Pay in Cases of Wrongdoing (WSJ) - "in case of"?
• EU to propose duties on Chinese solar panels (Reuters)
• Billionaire Kaiser Exploiting Charity Loophole With Boats (BBG)
• SEC Zeroing In on 'Prime' Funds (WSJ)
• Apple Avoids $9.2 Billion in Taxes With Debt Deal (BBG)
• China April official services PMI at 54.5 vs 55.6 in March (Reuters)

What once used to be a field in which men of towering intellect tried to establish, discuss and lay down the tenets of what was widely considered an entirely new science as recently as the late 19th century, has become a field in which a great many rather mediocre intellectuals are mainly serving the interests of the State. Nassim Taleb recently too to task a number of the so-called mainstream economists - assessing and analyzing the flaws of modern policy-making and central economic planning as well as the fractionally reserved banking system. We wish him success in tackling the handmaidens of statism and their pseudo-scientific output. Anyone criticizing the producers of fig leaves for interventionism deserves our support. Of course, if an economist rejects interventionism and supports the establishment of an unhampered free market, then there is obviously no role for him as an 'economic planner' and 'adviser to policymakers' (except for advising them to stay the hell out of the economy and stop meddling with it). 

Healthy female participation rates in the labor force and in leadership are a reflection of inclusiveness in countries and companies; and as Goldman Sachs recently noted, inclusive institutions lead to more innovation, more enduring competitive advantages and a more efficient use of available resources (capital, physical and people). The idea that empowering women employees and entrepreneurs contributes to a virtuous cycle as higher female disposable income trickles down to increased spending on education and healthcare, is not lost on Warren Buffett who writes at length in his latest Op-ed of the possibilities for America should the other 50% of America become productive, "women should never forget that it is common for powerful and seemingly self-assured males to have more than a bit of the Wizard of Oz in them. Pull the curtain aside, and you'll often discover they are not supermen after all." And with the oracular Omahan now on Twitter, can we expect more bitesize insights - perhaps the anti-Bill-Gross tweet.

There continues to be difficulty in securing physical bullion in large volumes, particularly in the small coin and bar market and particularly in the silver market. 

“… current policies come with a cost even as they act to magically float asset prices higher…, a bond and equity investor can choose to play with historically high risk to principal or quit the game and earn nothing."  Bill Gross, PIMCO

In a remarkably candid interview, the President and Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc, Terrence Duffy,  told Bloomberg TV that today gold buyers "don’t want certificates ... They want the real product".  

"What’s interesting about gold, when we had that big break two weeks ago we saw all the gold stocks trade down significantly, we saw all the gold products trade down significantly, but one thing that did not trade down, was gold coins, tangible real  gold.  That’s going to show you, people don’t want certificates, they don’t want anything else.  They want the real product."