This past week saw the initial public offering of the single most anticipated IPO of 2013 - Twitter. If you tweeted about it then you are not alone as the news dominated the media headlines and the market. With Twitter already sporting a 11x price-to-sales ratio, and no earnings, what could possibly go wrong? However, it is that growing complacency among investors that should be the most concerning as the general sentiment has become that nothing can stop the markets as long as the Fed is in the game. This week's issue of things to ponder over the weekend provides some thoughts in this regard...
Dismissing for one moment the fact that TWTR for all intent and purpose is now trading red for ($43 handle) for most if not all 'retail' investors unallocated at the IPO, Aswath Damodaran, valuation guru from NYU has taken his spreadsheet of doom to the analysts' forecasts for the dot-com-mania poster boy. As the following chart shows, the 140-character platform will have to generate $32 billion in 2023 to be worth $45 per share - that is a 50-fold increase in revenues over the next decade to justify it's IPO-busting current price. "Twitter is a good company, with the potential to be a great one," he said, but as Bloomber reports, he adds, "but not a good investment," as based on his calculations, TWTR is worth $18 (31% less than its IPO price). It seems the market is getting that...
- Fed Anxiety Rises as QE Raises Risk of Loss With Political Cost (BBG)
- Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday (WSJ)
- Israel rejects mooted interim Iran nuclear deal, Kerry heads to talks (Reuters)
- JPMorgan Banker Backed $200 Million Madoff Loan in 2008 (BBG)
- Unleashing the food nazis - FDA Says Trans Fats Aren't Safe in Food (WSJ)
- Draghi Aggression Shows Pledges Backed by Rate Surprise (BBG)
- S&P Cuts France's Credit Rating by One Notch to Double-A (WSJ)
- S&P criticises France’s high tax rates for stifling growth (FT)
- Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably Cooled Amid Government Shutdown (BBG)
Did you know that 40 percent of all American workers make less than $20,000 a year before taxes? And 65 percent of all American workers make less than $40,000 a year before taxes. If you work on Wall Street, or have a cushy job with the federal government, or work for a big tech firm out on the west coast, life is probably pretty good for you right now. But the truth is that most Americans are not living the high life. In fact, most Americans are just trying to figure out how to survive from month to month. If we truly did have a free market capitalist system, the entire country would be a land of opportunity and things would be getting better for everybody. Unfortunately, that is not the case at all. The following are 21 facts about "wealthy America" and "poor America" that are hard to believe...
On Thursday, November 7, 2013, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) halted trading in all OTC Equity Securities pursuant to FINRA Rule 6440(a)(3). FINRA determined to impose a temporary halt because of a lack of current quotation information. Therefore, FINRA has determined that halting quoting and trading in all OTC Equity Securities is appropriate to protect investors and ensure a fair and orderly marketplace. The trading and quotation halt began on Thursday, November 7, 2013, at 11:25:00 a.m. E.T. FINRA will notify the market when trading may resume.
There is no news as a catalyst here but bonds, FX, commodity, and stock markets are smashing around as Twitter break below its open price. JPY is rushing higher against the USD (as is EUR which has retraced Fib 61.8% of its losses from Draghi). Treasury yields are collapsing. Nasdaq and all the other US equity indices are dumping as momo names suffer the most.
Nope, no bubble here... Having traded up to $50 (over 33x Price-to-Sales), it seems hitting every analyst profit target (aside from Topeka's Anthony) within one hour of its release was enough for most... The 'profit-taking" has started and now TWTR is trading back below its break price... But do not worry - everyone can rest assured as Cramer just said "we're out of the woods here." Of course, as everyone knows, it's not where you start, it's where you finish that counts...
+75% at the open... (and is now up to $47.23)... HFT activity is extreme
* * * Update: range now $45.000-$46.0000
It just gets better and better: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 42.0000-46.0000
As a reminder, at $44/share, Twitter's valuation rises to $31 billion!
This is what client-facing desks are seeing at various banks across Wall Street right now. One example below:
PLEASE DO NOT ENTER ANY MARKET ORDERS FOR TWTR UNTIL AFTER THE STOCK STARTS TRADING. THESE ORDERS ARE CAUSING A LARGE NUMBER OF REJECTS WHICH MAY DELAY ENTRY OF YOUR ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR CO-OPERATION
Translation: slow down damn it, there will be more than enough shares sold to satsify all demand. Why is there a scramble? Because of this: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 40.0000-44.0000
One momo company that will almost certainly miss out on all of today's Twitter/ECB induced BTFATH-euphoria, is Tesla which is down 3% premarket at last check for one simple reason: the one shown on the photo below. This is the third reported car fire in the past month. So much for that "best safety rating of any car ever tested" - perhaps it really is time to inquire just what the NHTSA kickbacks were in order to go with that "objective" determination?
- Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
- Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
- Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
- European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
- Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
- Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
- China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
- Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
- Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
- NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)
When it comes to US equities today, the picture below summarizes it all... the only question is whether the NYSE breaks to celebrate the year's overhyped social media IPO.Aside from the non-event that is the going public of a company that will likely not generate profits for years, if ever, the overnight market has been quiet with all major stock indices in Asia trading modestly lower on the back of a modestly stronger dollar, although the main currency to watch will be the Euro (German Industrial production of -0.9% today was a miss of 0.0% expectations and down from 1.6% previously), when the ECB releases its monthly statement at 7:45 am Eastern when it is largely expected to do nothing but may hint at more easing in the future. On the US docket we have the weekly initial claims (expected at 335k) which now that they are again in a rising phase, have been the latest data item to be ignored in the Bizarro market, as well as the latest Q3 GDP estimate, pegged by consensus at 2.0%.
The “authorities” can shut down website after website, but the tide of new technology and the human spirit itself cannot and will not be overcome. This is the hard lesson that statists and collectivists will be learning the hard way in the years to come, as decentralization and freedom stage a gigantic, peaceful revolution. A revolution that is already in full swing and gaining tremendous momentum with each passing day.
It took only a little over a month for Silk Road 2.0 to launch on the “dark web,” and there are already close to 500 illegal drug listings.