"what you realize is that the lessons of ’08 will actually result in a much quicker process, a process that I would describe as a “black hole” if and when there is the next financial crisis.... Nobody in America has actually seen, or most people probably can’t even contemplate, what an actual loss of confidence may look like. What I’m trying to struggle with as a money manager, who really seriously doesn’t like to lose money, is how to protect our capital and how to think about the next crisis."
UBS and Nomura have suggested that gold could rise next week as the Federal Reserve may announce further easing at the FOMC meeting – on Tuesday (11/12/12) and Wednesday (12/12/12). Nomura said it is worth considering whether the FOMC will announce further easing to replace so called ‘Operation Twist’. The research house noted that gold remains at the same level as during the October meeting, which suggests gold has not yet priced in any move by the FOMC – creating an opportunity for gold bullion buyers. Regardless of whether the FOMC actually eases at this point – Nomura thinks there is a non-negligible probability – gold is likely to rise. Therefore, Nomura expects gold to rise and prices in this probability as the December meeting approaches, just as gold rose when the September meeting was approaching.
Gold fell $3.10 or 0.18% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,693.60/oz. Silver climbed to $33.24 then slid to $32.51, but finished after an afternoon rally with a loss of 0.33%.
Gold inched down on Thursday, near the monthly low reached in the prior session under pressure from a stronger greenback as players await the European Central Bank rate decision at 1245 GMT and US Initial Jobless Claims at 1330 GMT.
Physical buying of gold bullion has increased on the dip, particularly in Asia, and many are seeing these levels as a floor for prices.
- MSM discovers window dressing: Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees (WSJ)
- White House Unyielding on Debt Limit (WSJ)
- Obama, Boehner talk; Geithner prepared to go off "cliff" (Reuters)
- Republicans urged to resist tax rises (FT)
- China looms large over Japanese poll (FT)
- As predicted here two months ago, Greek Bond Buyback Leads S&P to Cut to Selective Default (BBG)
- Japan opposition LDP set to win solid election majority – polls (BBG), but...
- Japan Opposition LDP’s Main Ally Cautions Abe on BOJ Pressure (BBG)
- U.S. and Europe Tackle Russia Trade (WSJ)
- King Seen Maintaining QE as Osborne Extends Fiscal Squeeze (BBG)
- Syria pound fall suggests currency crisis (FT)
- Irish budget seeks extra €3.5bn (FT)
- U.K. Extends Cuts Due to Poor Outlook (WSJ)
- ECB Seen Refraining From Rate Cuts as Yields Sink on Bond Plan (BBG)
The Bank of Korea increased gold reserves 20% last month to diversify investments, boosting holdings for the fourth time since June 2011 and underscoring increased demand by central banks according to Bloomberg. The bank added 14 metric tons in November, bringing the total to 84.4 tons, the bank said in a statement today. By value, holdings increased about $780 million to $3.76 billion, equivalent to 1.2% of total reserves, the bank said. “Gold is a physical, safe asset,” the Bank of Korea said in the statement. The precious metal “is a way of diversification, which helps reduce investment risk in terms of foreign-exchange reserves management,” it said. The Bank of Korea bought 16 tons in July, 15 tons in November 2011 a further 25 tons over a one-month period from June to July last year.
Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the its rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.0 percent, as panic set in that the resources boom is fading quicker than anticipated. Note that rates have not been this low since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This strategic move was done in effort to rekindle the demand in some of the country’s weaker sectors in hopes that they would offset the rapid decline in the mining sector.
Warren Buffett’s General Re-New England Asset Management has warned that until central bank monetary policies around the world change “there will be a tendency to higher gold prices.” General Re-New England Asset Management, a unit of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said gold may advance as businesses temper spending and central- bank stimulus measures fall short. Gold’s climb last year to more than $1,900 an ounce was fuelled by the expectation that government spending cuts in Europe would reduce demand for goods and services, GR-NEAM Chief Investment Officer John Gilbert wrote in a newsletter posted on the unit’s website today, as reported by Bloomberg. “There is growing evidence that the rising price of gold is a statement about the discouraging prospects for returns on productive investments,” Gilbert said. “We hope that this analysis is wrong. We fear that it is not.”
It will be interesting to say the least. President Obama will be taking control of the social media madness, via his #My2K hashtag, at 2pmET to discuss the fiscal cliff and answer questions - following Sunday's rather more un-compromising appearance. We are sure the ZeroHedge readership have many questions for him. We wonder if @JohnBoehner will ask any? Of course, nothing can compare to the @MarkCuban vs @RealDonaldTrump cagematch - though we can only hope. We also look forward to hearing from @FakeJohnBoehner and @NotJohnBoehner.
If we had to summarize the global effort to reflate various debt and asset bubbles to "restart growth," we might say the Status Quo is pursuing opportunities of the past. However, as is becoming all too clear, pursuing opportunities of the past only speeds the dissolution of any Status Quo that depends on spent models of growth.
November sales of U.S. American Eagle gold coins are on track to be the best in 14 years as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. fiscal cliff and the election of President Obama led to safe haven buying. Buyers timing the market also increased coin sales by buying during sharp price movements that occurred in the beginning and end of November, coin dealers noted. Bullion dealers in the U.S. report an influx of high net worth individuals that are buying gold coins in volume and taking physical possession of their bullion. Month to date 131,000 ounces of American Eagles sold, that tripled last year's November sales and is the strongest November since 1998, data from the U.S. Mint's website shows. In October, the U.S. Mint sold 59,000 vs 50,000 ounces the previous year, while November marked its 2nd successive monthly rise. Coin banks have come in to buy the stock as the mint usually ends 2012 coin production in early December so it can begin minting the 2013 coins.
The University of Texas Football Program is not getting a positive return on their investment in the head coach.
Right now the world produces more Oil than it consumes each day, and it has for the past 16 months, this trend will only get worse in 2013.
This memo on the official whitehouse.gov website was released the other day and as Mike Krieger notes, it deserves wider discussion. It implies that the Obama Administration may be very worried about the truth getting out about all of their crimes, potentially via leaks from high places. Read it for yourself, but the language is pretty clear.
As ever, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly why gold and all precious metals fell in price. Interestingly, oil fell by even more - NYMEX crude was down by 1% and was down by more than 1.7% at one stage. The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, said Wednesday's plunge in gold was not the consequence of a "fat finger" or a human error. The trading wasn’t even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex, said CME. One thing that we can say for certain was that there was massive, concentrated selling as the New York stock markets opened with some 35,000 lots sold which is equivalent to 3.5 million ounces and saw the price fall from $1,735/oz to $1,711/oz between 0825 and 0830 EST. One sell order alone was believed to be 24 tonnes or 770,000 troy ounces. Incredibly there was 35% daily volume in just 60 seconds. The selling, like all peculiar, counter intuitive, sharp sell offs in recent months, was COMEX driven with COMEX contracts slammed leading to further stop loss selling. The selling may have been by speculative players on the COMEX. It may have been algo or computer trading driven or tech selling – although this is less likely. Informed commentators questioned the nature of the selling as a large institutional COMEX trading entity would normally gradually sell a position of this size in order to maximise profit.
Currency wars are set to intensify as the US Senate is considering new sanctions against Iran that would prevent Iran getting paid for its natural resource exports in gold bullion. The new sanctions aimed at reducing global trade with Iran in the energy, shipping and precious metals sectors may soon be considered by the U.S. Senate as part of an annual defense policy bill, senators and aides said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. The sanctions would end "Turkey's game of gold for natural gas," Reuters reported a senior Senate aide as saying, referring to reports that Turkey has been paying for natural gas with gold due to sanctions rules. The legislation "would bring economic sanctions on Iran near de facto trade embargo levels with the hope of speeding up the date by which Iran's economy will collapse," the aide said. Last week Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan has revealed a critical detail about a widely discussed Turkey-Iran gold trade boom, disclosing that the Islamic republic was exporting gas to Turkey in exchange for payment in gold bullion. It is also reported that Iranians are buying Turkish gold with the Turkish Lira, which is deposited into their bank accounts in exchange for Turkey’s natural gas purchases, the deputy prime minister said at midnight Nov. 22 during a parliamentary session. Iran cannot transfer monetary payments to Iran in U.S. dollars due to U.S sanctions against the country’s alleged nuclear weapons program. Iran has been forced to shun the international financial system and the petrodollar as means of payment and turn to the international gold market to ensure it gets paid for its natural resources in order to prevent absolute economic collapse.