Unemployment Claims

The Savings Rate Conundrum

"With the average American still living well beyond their means, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired at lower levels as savings continue to be diverted from productive investment into debt service."

Goldman Turns Less Confident On June, September Rate Hikes

"the risk to our near-term funds rate view is now slightly greater, largely because the range of plausible outcomes has widened. We have shaved our subjective odds of a June rate hike to 80%, from 90% earlier, and have also become a bit less confident in a September hike" - Goldman

The Best 'Unknown' Indicator

Even though investors have given up on the Trump reflation trade, this model has not. In fact, it has pushed up to new highs...

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.

Goldman Says Weak Payrolls "Just Enough For September Hike", Raises Odds From 40% To 55%

Growth in nonfarm payrolls was weaker than consensus estimates at +151k, but above the pace Fed officials typically consider sufficient to hold the unemployment rate steady over time—the so called “breakeven rate”. We therefore see this report as just enough for a large majority of officials to support a September rate increase. We have therefore raised our subjective odds of a hike this month to 55% from 40%.

"Something Is Not Right"

Overall, the “mixed signals” backdrop that has been in evidence for quite some time continues to prevail. And yet, we can see that a number of data points remain quite weak or are deteriorating further (particularly RGPDI). Strong payrolls data are not a reliable indicator of future economic growth – and considering that money supply growth remains at more than 8% y/y, current economic data look actually exceptionally poor (normally more pronounced boom conditions would be expected). Any slowdown in credit growth will quickly sink the good ship US economy.

Atlanta Fed Sees Dramatic Surge In Economy, Pegs Q3 GDP At 3.8%

Dear Janet, you have a problem! With jobs surging, stocks at record highs, volatility near record lows, China stable, and Brexit behind us, today's shocking upgrade of the US economy by The Atlanta Fed (to +3.8% growth) leaves The Fed with little to no excuse for hiking rates at least once if not twice this year...

Goldman Now Sees A Two-Thirds Chance Of A Rate Hike In 2016

US employment growth rebounded sharply in June, according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius, and as a result, the bank confirms their expectation of about a two-thirds chance that the FOMC will raise rates this year, most likely in December... notably different from market expectations.

Global Stocks Plunge After Bank Of Japan "Shock"

Less than one week after the BOJ floated a trial balloon using Bloomberg, that it would reduce the rate it charged some banks which set off the biggest USDJPY rally since October 2014, we are back where we started following last night's "completely unexpected" (for everyone else: we wrote "What If The BOJ Disappoints Tonight: How To Trade It" hours before said "shock") shocking announcement out of the BOJ which did absolutely... nothing. "It’s a total shock,” Nader Naeimi, Sydney- based head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors told Bloomberg. "From currencies to equities to everything -- you can see the reaction in the markets. I can’t believe this. It’s very disappointing."

Why "It’s Hard Being A Bear"

It is always hard to buck the crowd, to be a bear when the market is up this much, this fast. Stocks are rallying and being underweight gets harder to maintain every day. The bulls are out there yapping about how this was just another correction, another dip to buy and that we better get back in, yada, yada, yada. What makes being bearish so hard is the noise of the perpetually bullish street, the lure of easy money in a market you know is overvalued but keeps going higher. Like JM Keynes "I change my mind when the facts change." Despite the rally, the facts – at least for now – still favor the bears.