Vladimir Putin

"Will there be war in Ukraine? I am afraid so. After all, the extremists who seized power in Kiev want to see a bloodbath. Only fear for their own lives might stop them from inciting such a conflict... Russia will not annex Crimea. It has enough territory already.

At the same time, however, it will also not stand by passively while Russophobic and neo-Nazi gangs hold the people of Crimea, Kharkiv and Donetsk at their mercy."

It would appear the Norwegian Nobel Institute is starting to lose it. Just a few years after President Obama won the Peace Prize (while mired in overseas wars), the director of the prestigious entity announced today that Russian President Vladimir Putin, accused of invading Ukraine - suspiciously un-peaceful action - has been nominated for the Peace Prize. Putin joins NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and Pakistani schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai as a nominee for the award to be announced in October.

Below is the photo that reveals why US and EU bankers despise Russian President Putin so much

When Hillary Clinton compared Russia's incursion into Ukraine to the early days of Nazi Germany's expansion, she joined an illustrious band who have compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler since the 2008 Georgia crisis.

Catherine the Great “accomplished many things under difficult circumstances”--Angela Merkel

There are days when it seems that the Nobel Peace Prize should just go home and put their feet up, ask the home-help to make them a cuppa and to bath them and then they can be put to bed and tucked in

Many observers have focused on the relative paucity of the West's diplomatic and military options in Ukraine. Others focus on Russia's sources of leverage: cutting off natural gas to western Ukraine and Europe and/or dumping its reserves of U.S. dollars. All those focusing on the West's lack of leverage are forgetting that the Empire retains multiple way of striking back. For example, bringing the costs of misadventure home to Russia's politically influential 1/10th of 1%.

It’s history in the making, sitting on the sidelines, watching the scuffle happen and roll before your very eyes. But, it’s not worth a great deal when you know what the end of the match is going to be. 

Following warnings from US and European nations over economic (and travel) sanctions against Russia, the upper house of Russia's parliament has struck back. As RIA reports, Russia is mulling measures allowing property and assets of European and US companies to be confiscated in the event of sanctions being adopted. Layers are studying the costitutionality of the 'confiscation' but cite Europe's standards (i.e. Cyprus) as precedent. This is further to the threat to "dump US goverment bonds" issued earlier in the week.

About an hour ago, the head of Russia's top natural gas producer Gazprom said on Wednesday that Ukraine had informed the company it could not pay for February gas deliveries in full, further adding to tensions between Moscow and Kiev. Alexei Miller said Ukraine's total debt to Gazprom for gas deliveries was nearing $2 billion. "Our Ukrainian colleagues informed us that they would not be able to pay in full for February gas deliveries," he told Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• High Stakes Limit Bid to Cow Putin (WSJ)
• Russia says can't control Crimea troops ahead of U.S. talks (Reuters)
• Crimea Crisis Haunted by Ghosts of Bungled World War I Diplomacy (BBG)
• Putin’s Ukraine Gambit Hurts Economy as Allies Lose Billions  (BBG)
• Germany Says It Provided Equipment and Training to Ukraine's Riot Police (WSJ)
• China signals focus on reforms and leaner, cleaner growth (Reuters)
• China Shares in Hong Kong Decline Amid Default Concern (BBG)
• Beijing Signals New Worry on Growth (WSJ)

As newswires reported the comments from Putin’s senior aide Glazyev, the USD Index fell marginally to session lows and broke below 80.00 before recovering. If diplomacy does not prevail, then trade wars and currency wars will ensue with attendant consequences for the already vulnerable financial system and global economy.

• No need to use military force in Ukraine for now: Putin (Reuters)
• Russia Orders Drill Troops Back to Bases (WSJ)
• Ukraine premier agrees to reforms for aid package (FT)
• Japan Base Wages Rise for First Time in Nearly Two Years (WSJ)
• Only the algos are trading: Citigroup Joins JPMorgan in Seeing Trading-Revenue Drop  (BBG)
• Vietnam sends blogger to prison for critical posts (AP)
• At White House, Israel's Netanyahu pushes back against Obama diplomacy (Reuters)
• Obama to offer new tax breaks for workers in election year budget pitch (Reuters)
• China Banks Show Too-Connected-to-Fail Link to Shadow Loans (BBG)
• Ex-BOK Deputy Lee Named to Head South Korea Central Bank (BBG)
• No mortgage origination problem in the UK: Mortgage approvals climb to six year high (Telegraph)

Since Ukraine is the only wildcard variable in the news these past few days, it was to be expected that following i) the end of the large Russian military drill begun two weeks ago and ii) a press conference by Putin in which he toned down the war rhetoric, even if he did not actually say anything indicating Russia will difuse the tension, futures have soared and have retraced all their losses from yesterday. And not only in the US - European equity indices gapped higher at the open this morning in reaction to reports that Russian President Putin has ordered troops engaged in military exercises to return to their bases. Consequent broad based reduction in risk premia built up over the past few sessions meant that in spite of looming risk events (ECB, BoE policy meetings and NFP release this Friday), Bund also failed to close the opening gap lower. At the same time, USD/JPY and EUR/CHF benefited as the recent flight to quality sentiment was reversed, with energy and precious metal prices also coming off overnight highs.

Futures are soaring and are just shy of their record high first following news that the Russian military drill has ended, even if Russian troops stationed in the Crimea remain, but more importantly driven by a just completed press conference by Vladimir Putin in his residence outside of Moscow, in which the Russian leader appears to have softened his stance on Crimean aggression, saying he does not consider adding Crimea to its territory. What the market is focusing on is the repeat of Putin's stance that he will not be sending troops to the Crimea yet (even though they are there already), and that he suddenly appears concerned about the impact on markets and the fallout from sanctions.