Warren Buffett

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

Donald Trump Has An Enormous And Very Dangerous Wall Street Blind Spot

A very large percentage of the American public (including myself), remain irate at the complete lack of any justice served with regard to finance criminals in the aftermath of the economic collapse of 2008/09. When it comes to greedy, unethical behavior in the wake of that tragic period, Steve Mnuchin is in a class of his own. To appoint such a toxic financial oligarch to Treasury Secretary is a serious slap in the face to all American citizens.

The Rich Got Richer In 2016 - $237 Billion Richer!

While Warren Buffett did best of all the billionaires in 2016, he was far from alone. As Bloomberg reports, thanks to the Trump rally, the rich got a lot richer in 2016 - $237 billion richer to be exact - but the biggest fortunes on the planet whipsawed through $4.8 trillion of daily net worth gyrations in 2016.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

The Traditional "2 & 20" Fee Structure Is Taking A Hit As Hedge Funds Continue To Underperform

Warren Buffett after showing that the S&P outperformed hedge funds by 40 points from 2008 - 2015:  "[Losing by 40 points] may sound like a terrible result for the hedge funds, but it’s not a terrible result for the hedge fund managers.  If you have a couple percentage points sliced off every year, that is a lot of money ... It’s a compensation scheme that is unbelievable to me and that’s one reason I made this bet.”

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Frontrunning: December 16

  • The narrative continues this time from Reuters: Putin turned election hacks in Trump's favor: officials (Reuters)
  • Russian Special Forces Key to Aleppo Victory (WSJ)
  • Dollar Hits Speed Bump in Fed-Driven Rally; Bonds Stem Declines (BBG)
  • Battered euro and yen recover after dollar surge (Reuters)
  • Wall Street's 2017 Forecasts Are Doomed If Trump Doesn't Follow Through On Campaign Promises (BBG)

Buffett Wins Again: Berkshire To Get $29 Billion Boost Under Trump Tax Plan

Something curious happened as Trump was "draining the swamp" - the man who by some accounts owns the swamp, Hillary Clinton's billionaire backer Warren Buffett, may be about to get an "unexpected" windfall thanks to Trump's tax-rate cut policies which would boost the book value of Berkshire by as much as $29 billion.

Schwarzman, Dimon, Fink Will Advise Trump How To Create Jobs

Donald Trump today announced that he is establishing the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum. The Forum will be called upon to meet with the President "frequently to share their specific experience and knowledge as the President implements his plan to bring back jobs and Make America Great Again. The Forum will be chaired by Stephen Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of Blackstone." Its members also include Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.