Warren Buffett

Trader Tells 'New' Volatility-Sellers: "Come On In, The Water's Warm"

"My message to all those new quant fund vol sellers, come on in! The water’s warm. Glad to have your new supply keeping implieds low. Don’t worry, I am sure the returns of the next 8 years of commodity volatility selling will be just as good as the last 8 years of equity index volatility selling… Yeah, when didn’t chasing the previous decade’s best return strategy not work?"

How Dumb Is The Fed?

"Nothing comes from nothing. Fake money produces fake prosperity. Take away the fake money… and the fake prosperity goes “poof,” too. Which is why the Fed will never, voluntarily, stop manipulating prices. It can’t let the markets return to “normal” price discovery. Because the markets are likely to discover prices a lot lower than Dow 20,000."

Valuations & Returns - "No, This Time Is Not Different"

No. “This time is not different,” and in the end, many investors will once again be reminded of this simple fact: “The price you pay today for any investment determines the value you will receive tomorrow.” Unfortunately, those reminders tend to come in the most brutal of manners.

Frontrunning: July 12

  • Yellen to Address Interest Rates, Balance Sheet (WSJ)
  • Stocks Rebound as Dollar Dips on Trump Revelations (BBG)
  • Trump Jr.'s Russia emails could trigger probe under election law (Reuters)
  • Trump Jr. Emails Fan the Flames of Russia Probe (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Credibility Dealt Blow by His Son’s Emails (BBG)

All Eyes On Yellen As Dollar Slumps On Trump Revelations, Stocks Rebound

The dollar was broadly weaker after dovish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard amid reverberations from reports of Donald Trump Jr.’s contact with a Russian lawyer; European equities rebounded with oil while S&P futures were 0.2% higher at 2,428 as traders eagerly await Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy while the Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates later.

Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning

There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy... Oil and retail.

As The S&P 500 Becomes One Giant ETF, BofA Has Four Major Warnings

As ETFs control increasingly more of the S&P 500, and now account for more than a third of overall stock ownership, Bank of America warns to expect higher single-stock volatility, valuation distortions and liquidity concerns in the coming years, and issues the following four warnings to traders and investors...

Work Is For Idiots

Until the Fed’s mischief is stopped, and Federal Reserve Notes are replaced with honest money, no IMF policy recommendation, philanthropic commitment, or silly minimum wage increase, will do a lick for rewarding hard work with equitable pay.  All efforts otherwise are merely noise.