Warren Buffett

Mind The Non-GAAP: Real S&P Earnings Are The Lowest Since 2010

If using I/B/E/S GAAP earnings, which exclude the barrage of pro-forma write offs, addbacks, "non-recurring items" and countless other "misleading numbers that can deceive investors", what one gets is a true shocker: instead of 118 in LTM EPS for the S&P 500 (shown in red in the chart below) the true, Warren Buffett-approved number (shown in blue in the chart bellow) is a paltry 91.5! This is also the lowest S&P500 GAAP earnings per share since 2010.

"We Need Shed No Tears For The Capitalists" - Key Highlights From Buffett's 2015 Annual Letter

Earlier today Berkshire Hathaway released its 2015 annual report, which among other things includes Buffett's traditional annual observations and insights. Buffett brushes past last year’s disappointing stock performance, muses on the future of America while taking a swipe at Donald Trump, dwells on Berkshire’s ties to Brazilian PE firm 3G, talks about Berkshire’s big 2015 deal, defends manufactured-housing unit Clayton Homes, bashes inequality and capitalists (just not the crony kind), and concludes with a summary of the biggest risks facing America.

Why The Keynesian Market Wreckers Are Now Coming For Your Ben Franklins

Larry Summers is a pretentious Keynesian fool, but we refer to him as the Great Thinker’s Vicar on Earth for a reason. To wit, every time the latest experiment in Keynesian intervention fails - as 84 months of ZIRP and massive QE clearly have - he can be counted on to trot out a new angle on why still another interventionist experiment or state sponsored financial fraud is just the ticket. Right now he is leading the charge for the greatest stroke of foolishness yet conceived.

Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning

"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."

"Bloodbath" In Black Gold - Buffett's Phillips 66 Dumps Oil In Cushing, Crashes Crude Spreads To 5 Year Lows

The canary in the coalmine of an increasingly desperate energy industry just croaked. With "unusual timing" and at "distressed prices," Reuters reports that Phillips 66 - the major US refiner owned by Warren Buffett - dumped crude oil for immediate delivery into Cushing storage tonight. This sparked heavy selling of the front-month WTI contract (to a $26 handle) and crashed the 1st-2nd month spread to 5 year lows.

Weekend Reading: The Awakening

"More monetary stimulus, wherever it is in the world, isn’t the answer for a global economy still trying to find a new growth path. Pay attention to bonds and ignore the sirens of the stock market."

Why You Should Question "Buy-And-Hold" Advice

Retail investors generally buy an off-the-shelf portfolio allocation model that is heavily weighted in equities under the illusion that over a long enough period of time they will somehow make money. Unfortunately, history has been a brutal teacher about the value of risk management.

Jim Bianco: "The Markets Are Telling Us There's A Severe Issue Out There"

"There is some truth to the phrase that the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions... but that is a much better track record than the consensus of economists. Every time the financial markets get volatile and messy like this it deserves attention because the markets are trying to tell us that there is a severe issue out there."

Does Buffett See A Bottom In Oil Prices?

Warren Buffett has been consistently wrong on oil, but many experts are calling a bottom on oil prices now that the investor extraordinaire has upped his ante in Phillips 66, betting that he can’t be wrong three times in a row.

Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears

The Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week when first nothing the rumor, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.