Wells Fargo

• Hillary Clinton Accepts Blame for Benghazi (WSJ)
• In Reversal, Cash Leaks Out of China (WSJ)
• Spain Considers EU Credit Line (WSJ)
• China criticizes new EU sanctions on Iran, calls for talks (Reuters)
• Portugal sees third year of recession in 2013 budget (Reuters)
• Greek PM says confident Athens will secure aid tranche (Reuters)
• Fears over US mortgages dominance (FT)
• Fed officials offer divergent views on inflation risks (Reuters)
• China Credit Card Romney Assails Gives Way to Japan (Bloomberg)
• Fed's Williams: Fed Actions Will Improve Growth (WSJ)
• Rothschild Quits Bumi to Fight Bakries’ $1.2 Billion Offer (Bloomberg)

"The consensus view was that QE3 was going to send the stock market to the moon. Yet the peak level on the S&P 500 was 1,465 on September 14th, the day after the FOMC meeting. The consensus view was that the lagging hedge funds were going to be forced to play some major catch-up and take the stock market to the moon too. Surveys show that the hedge funds have already made this adjustment...Q3 EPS estimates are still coming down and now stand at -3% YoY from -2% at the start of October....this is the first time the Fed embarked on a nonconventional easing initiative with the market overbought and with profits and earning expectations on a discernible downtrend. Not only that, but the fact the pace of U.S. economic activity is still running below a 2% annual rate, which is less than half of what is normal at this stage of the business cycle with the massive amount of government stimulus, is truly remarkable. Keep an eye on the debt ceiling being re-tested — the cap is $16.394 trillion and we are now at $16.119 trillion. This is likely to make the headlines again before year-end — the rating agencies may not be taking off much time for a Christmas break."

After starting the overnight trading at its lows, the EURUSD has once again seen the now traditional overnight levitation, this time with absolutely no economic news, in the process raising equity futures across the Atlantic, even as unfounded Chinese optimism for more liquidity has waned leading to the SHCOMP closing down 0.3%. Perhaps the most notable event in the quiet trading session so far has been the surge in 10 year Greek debt whose yield has tumbled to post-restructuring lows, driven by more and more hedge funds piling in to piggyback on Dan Loeb's recent public GGB purchase announcement (strength into which he has long since sold), and hopes that Greece will somehow see an Official Sector Initiative (OSI) to make recovery prospects for Private Investors more attractive: a capital impairment the ECB has said would happen only over its dead body. But in the new normal, facts and rules are for chumps, and only exist to be broken. More on this amusing stupidity here. Amusingly, this comes just as Greece’s Staikouras says the economy’s downward spiral is not over yet. But, again, who cares about fundamentals.

• OECD: Japan Public Debt in 'Uncharted Territory' (WSJ)
• Germany holds firm on Greece as IMF pressure mounts (Reuters)
• Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity (FT) - it would be great if someone actually implemented austerity...
• Merkel hints at tax cuts for growth boost (FT)
• Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment (BBG)
• Romney Narrows Gap With Obama in Swing State Polling (BBG)
• Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year (WSJ)
• Softbank Founder Has 300-Year Plan in Wooing Sprint Nextel (BBG)
• Singapore Forgoes Currency Stimulus on Inflation Risk (Bloomberg) - as does China day after day
• Sharp Jabs Dominate Combative Vice-Presidential Debate (WSJ)
• Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Rift After Noda Call (Bloomberg)

Reports that the housing sector is recovering has generated more than a little irrational exuberance among investors regarding financials. 

A month ago, when RealtyTrac posted their latest US foreclosure numbers for the month of August, we presented what we called was the "Foreclosure Stuffing" thesis, explaining the explicit subsidy by the banks for the housing market, whereby the entire foreclosure process has now ground to a halt, and in doing so removing millions in inventory flow from the distressed end market, forcing limited buyers to chase what supply there is, and in the process boosting prices of existing inventory higher. In other words a traditional inventory removal-based subsidy. It is therefore not surprising that today RealtyTrac reported the latest foreclosure data, and lo and behold, just as we expected, the great foreclosure collapse has taken another leg lower, with the total number of foreclosures for the month of September sliding to 180.4K, a decrease of 7 percent from the previous month and down 16 percent from September 2011, and the lowest in five years!

• Global easing deluge resumes: Bank of Korea Slashes Policy Rate (WSJ)
• And Brazil: Brazil cuts Selic rate to new record low of 7.25 pct (Reuters)
• With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss (NYT) Just don't hold your breath
• IMF snub reveals China’s political priorities (FT)
• Add a dash of trade wars: Revised Duties Imposed by U.S. on Chinese Solar Equipment (Bloomberg)
• IMF calls for action as euro zone crisis festers (Reuters)
• Dubai Losing Billions as Insecure Expats Send Money Abroad (BBG)
• Softbank in Advanced Talks to Acquire Sprint Nextel (WSJ)
• Lagarde calls for brake on austerity (FT)
• EU lambasts Turkey over freedoms (FT)
• Race Tightens in Two States (WSJ)

Slap one out of 1000 bankers on the wrist and make millions of muppets happy???

• U.S. Military Is Sent to Jordan to Help With Crisis in Syria (NYT)
• IMF Weighing New Loans for Europe (WSJ)
• Romney Targets Obama Voters (WSJ)
• China’s Central Banker Won’t Attend IMF Meeting Amid Island Spat (Bloomberg)
• Japan Calls China PBOC Chief Skipping IMF Meeting ‘Regrettable’ (Bloomberg)
• German media bristles at hostile Greek reception for Merkel (Reuters)
• The End Might Be Near for Opel (Spiegel)
• IMF sounds alarm on Japanese banks (FT)
• Cash Tap Stays Dry for EU Banks (WSJ)
• Goldman in Push On Volcker Limits (WSJ)
• IMF Vinals: Further Policy Efforts Needed to Gain Lasting Stability (WSJ)
• King signals inflation not primary focus (FT)

Couldn't happen to a nicer crony capitalist's favorite stock:

• U.S. FILES CIVIL MORTGAGE FRAUD SUIT AGAINST WELLS FARGO
• U.S. CLAIMS WELLS FARGO FALSELY CERTIFIED FHA LOANS
• GOVERNMENT SEEKS DAMAGES AND PENALTIES FOR RECKLESS LOANS
• FHA FORCED TO PAY `HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS' FOR DEFAULTED LOANS

Well, Charlie: "Suck it in" (even more than just the recent epic collapse of BYD of course). As for Wells, sorry Warren, but just like gold, you can't really fondle that stock certificate, held by DTCC in proxy, either.

• Rajoy’s Deepening Budget Black Hole Outpaces Spain’s Cuts (Bloomberg)
• ECB May Need to Cut Rates Given Deflation Risk, IMF Says (Bloomberg)
• Global Recession Risk Rises (WSJ)
• Romney Leads Obama in Pew Likely Voter Poll After Debate (Bloomberg)
• IMF Sees Global Risk in China-Japan Spat (WSJ)
• Republicans shift tone on taxing the rich (FT)
• Romney casts Obama's foreign policy as weak, dangerous (Reuters)
• Europe Salutes Greek Budget-Cutting Will, Raising Aid Prospects (Bloomberg)
• U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved (Bloomberg)
• IMF Says Most Advanced Nations Making Progress Reducing Deficits (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone launches €500bn rescue fund (FT)

Usually on semi-US holidays such as today, when bonds are closed but equities left to the whims of vacuum tubes, equities do their mysterious ramp and never look back. So far today, however, this has failed to happen with futures at lows, driven by a noticeably weak EURUSD, which has traded down nearly 100 pips from the Friday late day ramp close, currently at 1.2940. It is unclear what has spooked the Euro so far, although all signs point to, as they did 2 months ago, the Spanish lack of willingness to throw in the towel and demand a bailout, thus easing conditions for everyone else if not for Spain PM Rajoy. Today's main event will be European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg to discuss the recent Spanish economic transformation efforts as well as an attempt to accelerate banking cooperation and implement a banking regulator - something which is needed for the ESM to monetize bank debt, and something which Germany has been firmly against from day one. Additionally, a day ahead of Merkel's visit to German (where she will be protected by 6-7,000 cops), the ministers are likely to make a positive statement on Greece’s progress toward austerity targets, according to European viceroy Olli Rehn said. In other overnight news, German Industrial Production saw a -0.5% decline, which was modestly better than the -0.6% expected. Over in Asia, China reopened from its 1 week Golden Week hibernation with the SHCOMP down -0.56% to 20.76.42 following a small bounce in the China HSBC Services PMI to 54.3 from 52 in August, and with average house prices rising for a 4th month in a row, and even more repo operations by the PBOC, the result is that the market's ungrounded hopium for an immediate PBOC liquidity injection was taken away pushing regional markets lower.

• Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
• EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
• Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
• Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
• Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
• Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
• BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
• Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
• Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
• Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
• Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)

• Romney dominates presidential debate (FT)
• What Romney’s Debate Victory Means (Bloomberg)
• Obama Lead Shrinks in Two Battlegrounds (WSJ)
• "Everything will fall apart unless the Spanish conditions are extremely tough" German policy-maker (Telegraph)
• Draghi Stares at Spain as Brinkmanship Keeps ECB Waiting (Bloomberg)
• RBS facing loss after Spanish property firm collapse (Telegraph)
• Burdened by Old Mortgages, Banks Are Slow to Lend Now (WSJ)
• The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan Chase (NYT)
• European Banks Told to Hold On to $258 Billion of Fresh Capital (Bloomberg)
• Europe Weighs More Sanctions as Iran’s Currency Plummets (Bloomberg)

Four years ago today, the Troubled Asset Relief Program was signed into law. We thought it timely to take stock of different asset price levels with respect to that magnificent day in the history of our country as well as how a broad cross-section of global asset markets have performed relative to their pre-crisis peaks. Of the major US banks, Wells Fargo has done the best (-2.3%) while BofA and Citi are worst (down ~80%). As Goldman notes, two features stand out when we look at the broad markets: asset markets that have outperformed and are closer to pre-crisis peaks are either ‘defensive’ in some way, or have benefited inadvertently from the ‘Great Easing’ in response to the crisis. From precious metals and Swedish and Canadian house prices at the top to European bank stocks and US Growth at the bottom; 'hard assets' and 'defensives' combined with central bank yield compression has, as we would expect, dominated performance.