Wells Fargo

• Welcome to the recovery:
  • Euro zone warning hits stocks, currency as oil plumbs depths (Reuters)
  • Japan GDP Worse Than Initially Reported (WSJ)
  • China trade data well below expectations (BBC)
  • German industrial production frustrates forecasts (FT)
• Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks as Dollar Gains (BBG)
• California police, protesters clash again after 'chokehold' death (Reuters)
• Ruble’s Rout Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps (BBG), not to be confused with "Yen's Rout Is Tale Of Keynesian Success, Prosperity"
• Uber banned from operating in Indian capital after driver rape (Reuters)

Many people have noted that the more insidious or corrupt a law or agency, the more positive sounding its name. The most egregious example during my lifetime, was naming legislation that stripped Americans of most of their civil liberties the “Patriot” Act. In a similar vein, which red-blooded American could ever be opposed to something called the Small Business Administration (SBA). As such, the SBA is the perfect vehicle for cronyism, corruption and corporate welfare, which indeed appears to be its primary reason for existence.

• DAX’s ‘Brilliant’ Run Sends Red Flag as German Index Tops Record (BBG)
• U.S. military warned of possible Islamic State attacks at home: report (Reuters)
• Russia Faces First Recession Since 2009 as Banks Add to Oil Pain (BBG)
• Dodgy Home Appraisals Are Making a Comeback (WSJ)
• U.S. Corporate Bond Sales Pass $1.5 Trillion for Annual Record (BBG)
• Basic Costs Squeeze Families (WSJ)
• China Orders Stricter Checks on Local Debt as Sales Surge (BBG)
• Draghi Powerless on ECB Path Toward QE Without Reforms (BBG)

With a third of S&P 500 capital expenditure due from the imploding energy sector (and with over 20% of the high-yield market dominated by these names), paying attention to any inflection point in the US oil-producers is critical as they have been gung-ho "unequivocally good" expanders even as oil prices fell. However, as Reuters reports, new data suggests that the much-anticipated slowdown in shale country may have finally arrived - permits for new wells dropped 15% across 12 major shale formations last month, as one analysts warns, "the first domino is the price, which causes other dominos to fall."

• Moody’s Downgrades Japan’s Credit Rating (WSJ)
• China Factory Gauge Drops as Shutdowns Add to Slowdown (BBG)
• Euro zone factory growth stalls in November as new orders sink (Reuters)
• Espírito Santo Faces Money-Laundering Investigations (WSJ)
• Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Iran (BBG)
• Hong Kong warns protesters not to return after clashes close government HQ (Reuters)
• Bond Secrets Decoded 9,539 Miles From Wall Street in Lot (BBG)
• Ruble Rally Turns to Rout as Fortunes Tied to Sinking Oil (BBG)
• Loans Made in Blink as Banks, Funds Vie for LendingClub Clients (BBG)

We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as we write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.

While the US takes the day off after another near-record low volume surge to a new all time high in the S&P500, a level which is now just 125 points away from Goldman's year end target for 2016, the rest of the world will be patiently awaiting to see if oil's next step, as a result of today's OPEC meeting will be to $60 or to $100. For now at least the answer is the former (see more here from the WSJ), with Brent recently touching a fresh 4 year low in the mid-$75s, as WTI doesn't fare much better and was down 2% at last check to $72.20 after touching a low of $71.89. It appears the prepared remarks by the OPEC president to the 166th conference have not eased fears that despite all the rhetoric OPEC will be unable to get all sides on the same story, even though the speech notes "ample supply, moderate demand and warns that "if falling price trend continues, “long-term sustainability of capacity expansion plans and investment projects may be put at risk."

• National Guard, police curb Ferguson unrest as protests swell across U.S. (Reuters)
• Ferguson Reaction Across U.S. Shows Complex Racial Split (BBG)
• Democratic senator Schumer: Democrats Screwed Up By Passing Obamacare In 2010 (TPM)
• Veto threat derails Reid tax deal (Hill)
• Justice Department Investigating Possible HSBC Leak to Hedge Fund (WSJ)
• Merkel hits diplomatic dead-end with Putin (Reuters), and yet...
• Merkel Said to Reject Ukraine NATO Bid as Rousing Tension (BBG)
• HSBC, Goldman Rigged Metals’ Prices for Years, Suit Says (BBG)

• Ferguson in Flames (Reuters)
• Ferguson Cop Told Grand Jury He Feared for His Life (BBG)
• Sharpton: Grand Jury Announcement ‘An Absolute Blow’ (Daily Caller)
• Gunshots echo as violence returns to Ferguson, protests across U.S. (Reuters)
• BoJ members warned on costs of more easing (FT)
• Hagel Exit Shows Obama Has Taken Power Away From Pentagon (BBG)
• Ukraine leader, under pressure from West, pledges new government soon (Reuters)
• Eurozone Stagnation Poses Major Risk to Global Growth, OECD Warns (WSJ)
• ECB’s Coeure Says Officials Won’t Rush as They Debate All Assets (BBG)

• Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
• PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
• Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
• UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
• US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
• Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
• Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
• How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
• The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)

• Banks Had Unfair Advantage From Commodity Units (Bloomberg)
• Report Notes Deals Between Goldman, Deutsche and Others Drove Up Aluminum Prices (WSJ)
• Goldman, Morgan Stanley Commodity Heyday Gone as Units Faulted (BBG) - because when you can no longer manipulate, you move on...
• Lenders Shift to Help Struggling Student Borrowers (WSJ)
• Immigrants face major hurdles in signing up to new Obama plan (Reuters)
• Distressed Debt in China? Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet, Buyers Say (BBG)
• Banking culture breeds dishonesty, scientific study finds (Reuters)
• Amazon Robots Get Ready for Christmas (WSJ)

• Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
• West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
• Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
• Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
• Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
• Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
• Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
• Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)

• Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls Snap Election (WSJ) - as repeatedly priced in...
• Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market (BBG)
• Not Greece again: Greek Bailout Review Stalls as Troika Demands Final Steps (BBG)
• Iran uses China bank to transfer funds to Quds-linked companies (Reuters)
• Porn Mags With Free Madrid Theater Tickets in Tax Protest (BBG)
• Hong Kong, China stocks ease on profit-taking after stock connect launch (Reuters) - Hang Seng down 500 points in past 2 days
• Halliburton Mega-Deal Sealed by CEOs Over Coke and Coffee (BBG)
• Wall Street to Reap $316 Million From Day of Mega Deals (BBG)
• Mass murderer Charles Manson gets marriage license, state says (Reuters)

This may not quite be the blow-off top in the merger bubble as companies rush to frontrun the ECB and buy whatever still isn't nailed, but it is getting close. Because while earlier today Baker Hughes announced it would accept the Halliburton offer to buy it unchallenged in a $35 billion transaction leading many to wonder just how much lower the price of oil is still set to drop, moments ago the Allergan "White Knight" swooped from up on high, and as had also been leaked in recent weeks, Actavis agreed to buy the botox- maker which Ackman and Valeant had been so eagerly chasing for months in order to let the roll-up pharma pad its non-GAAP books with another 2-3 years of pro forma "synergies" add backs.  This means that between Halliburton and Actavis, today we have had the first $100 billion "Merger Monday" in over a decade.

• Scuttled deals worth $580 billion put hedge funds on back foot (Reuters)
• Mounting Pressure on OPEC Spurs More Wagers on Oil Rally (BBG)
• It's not just US real estate: Chinese Students at U.S. Universities Jump 75% in Three Years (BBG)
• Frankfurt Open for Yuan Clearing as Liquidity Rises (BBG)
• Obama defends healthcare law after adviser criticism (Reuters)
• Michael Hasenstab Bets Big in Controversial Places (WSJ)
• Facebook seeks foothold in your office (FT)
• Russia Seen as Greatest Threat in Poll as Oil Erodes Putin Power (BBG)
• Falling Oil Prices Test OPEC Unity (WSJ)