Wells Fargo

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Frontrunning: July 2





  • Egypt on the edge after Mursi rebuffs army ultimatum (Reuters)
  • Inside China's Bank-Rate Missteps (WSJ)
  • Obama Urges Morsi to Respond to Protesters' Concerns (WSJ)
  • How Fed’s 7% Jobless Avoids Deterring Bondholders Is Mystery (BBG)
  • Obama Joins With Political Foe Bush at End of Africa Trip (BBG)
  • China may introduce deposit insurance by year-end (China Daily)
  • China’s Slowdown Could Slam Hong Kong (BBG)
  • Government 'to ask Rothschild to advise on RBS split' (Telegraph)
  • Martin Feldstein: The Fed Should Start to 'Taper' Now (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 1





  • Pretty much as expected from George W. Bush: Edward Snowden ‘damaged’ security (Politico)
  • Gotta love the Keynesian-Monetarist religion: True 'Bullievers' Are Still Sweet on Japan (WSJ)
  • Canadian Takes Reins at Bank of England (WSJ)
  • Egypt streets quiet, political standoff goes on (Reuters)
  • Private Banks Leave Switzerland as End of Secrecy Hurts (BBG)
  • How Next Debt-Ceiling Fight Could Play Out (WSJ)
  • Easy Money Is Still Central (WSJ)
  • Lew Says China Needs Market Policies and Stop Spying (BBG) - China replies with the same
  • Ireland Preparing Plan to Tap Euro-Area Rescue Fund, Noonan Says (BBG)
  • Poll shows strong shift to Australian PM Rudd, new ministry named (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: June 26





  • Scalpel in Hand, Chinese Premier Li Stirs Reform Hopes (Reuters)
  • Obama Sets Conditions for Keystone Pipeline Go-Ahead (FT)
  • World’s Most Indebted Households Face Rate Pain (BBG)
  • SAC Probers Weighing 'Willful Blindness' Tack (WSJ)
  • Draghi Says ECB Ready to Act, Calls for Investment Over Tax (BBG)
  • U.S. Tops China for Foreign Investment (WSJ)
  • Basel Presses Ahead With Plans to Limit Bank Borrowing (FT)
  • Gillard Ousted as Australia PM by Rival Rudd (FT)
  • Japan Economic Strength Will Show in Stocks, Nishimura Says (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 25





  • Here come the rolling blackouts: Obama takes on power plant emissions as part of climate plan (Reuters)
  • Walking Back Bernanke Wished on Too Much Information (BBG)
  • As previewed last week: Bridgewater "All Weather" is Mostly Cloudy, down 8% YTD (Reuters)
  • U.S. Said to Explore Possible China Role in Snowden Leaks (BBG)
  • Coeure Says No Doubt ECB Loose Monetary Policy Exit Distant (Bloomberg)... so a "recovery", but not at all
  • U.S. steps up pressure on Russia as Snowden stays free (Reuters)
  • Texas' Next Big Oil Rush: New Pipelines Ferrying Landlocked Crude Expected to Boost Gulf Coast Refiners (WSJ)
  • Singapore Offsets Bankers as Vacancies Fall (BBG)
  • Asian Stocks Fall as China Sinks Deeper Into Bear Market (BBG), European Stocks Rally With Bonds as Metals Advance (BBG)
  • Qatar emir hands power to son, no word on prime minister (Reuters)
 
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The Dark Side Of Soaring Rates: A Housing Market That Lost 16% Of Its Value In Under Two Months





A week ago, we provided a simple, irrefutable analysis of "What The Recent Surge In Rates Means For Your Home Purchasing Power" in which we demonstrated how the average home affordability goes down (due to the declining marginal purchasing power in a rising rate environment) as interest rates (for mortgages and all rate-sensitive products) go up. What this means is that all else equal, absent a massive increase in disposable income (especially when the opposite is happening to disposable income), the average home affordability plunges as rates go up. So here is the benchmark price-rate curve updated for a reality, in which the national average 30 Year fixed has exploded from 3.40% on May 1 to a whopping (for the New Normal) 4.875% as of today for Wells Fargo customers. The matching affordability collapse: from $450K to $378K, or a stunning 16% equilibrium price drop in under two months!

 
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Meet The Man In Charge Of America's Secret Cyber Army (In Which "Bonesaw" Makes A Mockery Of PRISM)





Meet General Keith Alexander, "a man few even in Washington would likely recognize", which is troubling because Alexander is now quite possibly the most powerful person in the world, whom nobody talks about. Which is just the way he likes it. ... And also meet Bonesaw: "Bonesaw is the ability to map, basically every device connected to the Internet and what hardware and software it is."

 
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Fact Or Fiction: Financial Sector Thinks It’s About Ready To Ruin World Again





Claiming that enough time had surely passed since they last caused a global economic meltdown, top executives from the U.S. financial sector told reporters Monday that they are just about ready to completely destroy the world again. Representatives from all major banking and investment institutions cited recent increases in consumer spending, rebounding home prices, and a stabilizing unemployment rate as confirmation that the time had once again come to inflict another round of catastrophic financial losses on individuals and businesses worldwide.  “It’s been about five or six years since we last crippled every major market on the planet, so it seems like the time is right for us to get back out there and start ruining the lives of billions of people again,” said Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. “We gave it some time and let everyone get a little comfortable, and now we’re looking to get back on the old horse, shatter some consumer confidence, and flat-out kill any optimism for a stable global economy for years to come.”

 
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Frontrunning: June 21





  • Turmoil Exposes Global Risks (WSJ)
  • China Money Rates Retreat After PBOC Said to Inject Cash (BBG)
  • Fed Seen by Economists Trimming QE in September, 2014 End (BBG)
  • Booz Allen, the World's Most Profitable Spy Organization (BBG)
  • Abe’s Arrows of Growth Dulled by Japan’s Three Principles (BBG)
  • China steps back from severe cash crunch (FT)
  • Smog at Hazardous as Singapore, Jakarta Spar Over Fires (BBG)
  • U.S. Weighs Doubling Leverage Standard for Biggest Banks (BBG)
 
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What The Recent Surge In Rates Means For Your Home Purchasing Power





In one month, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has jumped by over 60 basis points. What does this mean for net purchasing power? Well, as the chart below shows, assuming a $2000/month budget to be spent on amortizing a mortgage (or otherwise spent for rent), it means that suddenly instead of being able to afford a $425K house, the average consumer can buy a $395K house . This means that, all else equal, housing just sustained a 7% drop in the average equlibrium price based on what buyers can afford. But assuming the current selloff in rates continues, things are going to get much worse: we may be seeing 5%, 5.5% even 6% and higher mortgages in the immediate future. It also means that a buyer who could previously afford a $506K house with a $2,000 monthly budget at an interest rate of 2.5% will be able to afford only $316K if and when the average 30 Year fixed hits 6.5%: a 40% drop in affordability based on just a 4% increase in interest rates!

 
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Frontrunning: June 20





  • Bonds Tumble With Stocks as Gold Drops in Rout on Fed (BBG)
  • Bernanke Sees Beginning of End for Fed’s Record Easing (BBG)
  • Gold Tumbles to 2 1/2 Year-Low After Fed as Silver Plummets (BBG)
  • PBoC dashes hopes of China liquidity boost (FT)
  • U.S. Icons Now Made of Chinese Steel (WSJ)
  • Emerging Markets Crack as $3.9 Trillion Funds Unwind (BBG)
  • Everyone joins the fun: India sets up elaborate system to tap phone calls, e-mail (Reuters)
  • China Manufacturing Shrinks Faster in Threat to Europe (BBG)
  • More on how Syria's Al-qaeda, and now US, supported "rebels", aka Qatar mercenaries, operate (Reuters)
  • Echoes of Mao in China cash crunch (FT) - how dare a central bank not pander to every bank demand?
  • French watchdog tells Google to change privacy policy (Reuters)
 
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Guest Post: Who Are The Real Traitors?





Over the course of decades we have allowed ourselves to be corrupted by the love of material possessions, the lure of a debt based faux wealth, the money for nothing entitlement promises of dishonorable politicians, the evil of currency debasement, the effectiveness of mass media propaganda, and the belief that we could sacrifice freedom and liberty for promises of safety and security made by a cabal of powerful rich men. Power has been concentrated into the hands of the few, who operate in secrecy and despise the people. They don’t want transparency or open debate. Freedom of speech is nothing but a thorn in their side. They believe they are smarter than the serfs and have no morality when it comes to committing illegal acts and disregarding the Constitution. They are not acting in the public interest. Their abuse of power and looting of the national wealth have put us on a path towards a bloody revolution. This is not a time for conformity, obedience or submission. It’s time to stand up and expose the evil doers. It’s time to rally around those who care about this country. Who are the real traitors? You know the answer.

 
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Frontrunning: June 18





  • Obama Says Bernanke Fed Term Lasting ‘Longer Than He Wanted’ (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel Critical Of Japan's Credit Policy In Meeting With Abe (Nikkei)
  • China Wrestles With Banks' Pleas for Cash (WSJ)
  • Biggest protests in 20 years sweep Brazil (Brazil)
  • Pena Nieto Confident 75-Year Pemex Oil Monopoly to End This Year (Bloomberg)
  • G8 leaders seek common ground on tax (FT)
  • Putin faces isolation over Syria as G8 ratchets up pressure (Reuters)
  • Former Trader Is Charged in U.K. Libor Probe (WSJ) - yup: it was all one 33 year old trader's fault
  • Draghi Says ECB Has ‘Open Mind’ on Non-Standard Measures (BBG)
  • Loeb Raises His Sony Stake, Drive for Entertainment IPO (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: June 17





  • Obama prepares for chilly talks with Putin over Syria (Reuters)
  • G8 opens amid dispute on Syria arms (FT)
  • Economists Blame Fed for Higher Bond Yields (WSJ) - wait... what? Isn't the "stronger economy" to blame?
  • What a novel concept - In the Czech Republic, a spying scandal has forced the PM to resign (BBG)
  • Rigged-Benchmark Probes Proliferate From Singapore to UK (BBG)
  • Economists Wary as Fed's Next Forecast Looms  (Hilsenleak)
  • Banks Balk at New Rules for Small Loans (WSJ)
  • Sporadic clashes in Turkey as Erdogan asserts authority (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: June 14





  • As Goldman's money-printing tentacle Carney arrives, everyone else leaves: Tucker to Leave BOE (WSJ)
  • So much for pent up demand: Refinancings Plunge as Bond Yields Rise (WSJ)
  • Singapore Censures 20 Banks for Attempts to Rig Benchmark Rates (BBG)
  • Behind the Big Profits: A Research Tax Break (WSJ)
  • While working for spies, Snowden was secretly prolific online (Reuters)
  • Turkey to Await Ruling on Park as Erdogan Meets Protesters (BBG)
  • Iran votes for new president, Khamenei slams U.S. doubts (Reuters)
  • NSA revelations, modified wheat cast a pall on U.S. trade talks with Europe (WaPo)
  • Euro zone inflation subdued as employment keeps falling (Reuters)
 
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