Wells Fargo

U.S. GDP Rose 1.4% In Final Estimate Of Q4 Growth As Corporate Profits Plunged

While the final revision to Q4 2015 GDP was so irrelevant it was released on a holiday when every US-based market is closed, even the futures, it is nonetheless notable that according to the BEA in the final quarter of 2015 US GDP grew 1.4%, up from the 1.0% previously reported, and higher than the 1.0% consensus estimate matching the highest Q4 GDP forecast. The final Q4 GDP print was still well below the 2.0% annualized GDP growth reported in Q3.

Soon After We Sounded The Alarm, Canada's Regulator Warns Local Banks Are Underreserved To Energy Losses

Two months after we first suggested that Canadian lenders are woefully underreserved to future oil and gas loan losses, we are happy to announce that Canada's regulator has heard our warning, and as the WSJ reported, "Canada’s banking regulator is urging the country’s major banks to review their accounting practices to ensure they have sufficient reserves as the commodity-price collapse takes a toll on the economy."

Energy Wars Of Attrition - The Irony Of Oil Abundance

In the end, the oil attrition wars may lead us not into a future of North American triumphalism, nor even to a more modest Saudi version of the same, but into a strange new world in which an unlimited capacity to produce oil meets an increasingly crippled capitalist system without the capacity to absorb it. Think of it this way: in the conflagration of the take-no-prisoners war the Saudis let loose, a centuries-old world based on oil may be ending in both a glut and a hollowing out on an increasingly overheated planet. A war of attrition indeed.

3 Things: Recession Odds, Middle-Class Jobs, & Market Drops

"...it is not wise to dismiss recession risk." Despite the ongoing “hopes” of the always bullish media, the recent rally has not changed the slope, or scope, of current market dynamics. The current “bear market” is not over just yet.

"We Need Shed No Tears For The Capitalists" - Key Highlights From Buffett's 2015 Annual Letter

Earlier today Berkshire Hathaway released its 2015 annual report, which among other things includes Buffett's traditional annual observations and insights. Buffett brushes past last year’s disappointing stock performance, muses on the future of America while taking a swipe at Donald Trump, dwells on Berkshire’s ties to Brazilian PE firm 3G, talks about Berkshire’s big 2015 deal, defends manufactured-housing unit Clayton Homes, bashes inequality and capitalists (just not the crony kind), and concludes with a summary of the biggest risks facing America.

Donald Trump Is Right: Here Are 100 Reasons Why We Need To Audit The Federal Reserve

When a leading nominee for President gets something exactly right, we should applaud them for it.  In this case, Donald Trump’s call to audit the Federal Reserve is dead on correct.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but the Federal Reserve has far more power over the economy than anyone else does – including Barack Obama.  The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve is not even part of the federal government.  It is an independent private central bank that was designed by very powerful Wall Street interests a little over 100 years ago.  It is at the heart of the debt-based financial system which is eating away at America like cancer, and it has no direct accountability to the American people whatsoever.

Valeant Crashes To 3-Year Lows After-Hours On News May Restate Earnings

It's been an ugly few days for Valeant. Following Wells Fargo downgrade and Jim Chanos warnings over PBMs broadly based on Deutsche Bank's analysis, Dow Jones reports after-hours that Valeant is set to restate earnings after an internal review. The stock is down 10% after-hours, down 18% on the day and back at levels not seen since early 2013...

Valeant 'Dead-Cat-Bounce' Dies On Double-Downgrade, Chanos Concerns

Just when you thought it was saffe to pile back into the hedge fund hotel that is Valeant Pharma, the stock prices collapses 18% in 2 days back to 3-month lows. Following a Wells Fargo downgrade on Friday to underperform (due to concerns over the firm's ability to pay back its debt), Deutsche Bank piled on implicitly today with a downgrade for Express Scripts in light of Anthem's over-paying arguments which Jim Chanos claims will weigh on the entire PBM space.

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

The OPEX game is back in full swing and brought back hope amongst signs of bullish capitulation everywhere.... but there is plenty of bad (and even ugly) to consider.

The 4 Key Themes From Q4 Conference Calls

  • Theme 1: US economy appears insulated from global weakness
  • Theme 2: Strong domestic consumer demand persists
  • Theme 3: Managements remain devoted to share repurchases
  • Theme 4: Outlook for China is positive despite recent turmoil

It Was Never About Oil, Part 2: It Was Always Leverage & Volatility

Unfortunately, we remain stuck in the cleanup phase so long as economists and their ability to direct policy continue to suggest the Great Recession was anything other than systemic revelation along these lines; a permanent rift between what was and what can be. It is and was never about oil; only now that oil projects volatility into the dying days of eurodollar leverage.

Either Banks Are Cheap... Or The Market's Gonna Crash

Simply put, either large cap Financials are cheap, or the entire U.S. equity market is still overpriced. Their precipitous decline year to date means markets fear they are both the transmission mechanism for a global slowdown/recession to come and a primary victim of that event.