William Dudley

"Last September Yellen Decided To Stay On Hold; Three Years Ago Bernanke Chose Not To Taper QE3"

Will she, or won't she? That is the question everyone wants answered regarding whether Yellen will hike rates in two weeks time. To be sure, historical precedented is not on the side of the hawks: as Bloomberg's Daniel Kruger reminds us, "Last September in ambiguous circumstances Yellen opted to stay on hold. Three years ago in September Ben Bernanke chose not to taper QE3 bond purchases."

"Will Yellen Shock Today?"

Well, we made it. It’s finally Janet Yellen day. Has a speech by a Fed Chair ever been anticipated, dissected and stressed over to this extent? It’s partially down to the fact that she has largely, even unprecedentedly, made herself unavailable for public comment. Sending her minions out to confuse us. But more distressingly, they have put themselves in a situation where a measly 25 basis points looms like a life-changing event. 

Goldman "Explains" Why Yellen Lost Credibility: "In Our View, The Fed Has Been Unlucky"

"The May 18 minutes surprised virtually everyone by guiding strongly toward a rate hike in June or July, and Chair Yellen reinforced this message in her remarks at Harvard University on May 27. But the weak May employment report released on June 3 and increased concern about the UK referendum again triggered a sharp pivot, putting on hold the notion of further hikes. These dramatic shifts have frustrated many market participants. In our view, the Fed has been unlucky."

Global Stocks Drop, US Futures Down As Dollar Rebound Halts Longest Oil Rally In Years

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.

S&P Futures Unchanged As Europe Rises; Dollar Slide Sends Oil Above $47

In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47

European Stocks Drop, Futures Flat As Rising Dollar Pressures Oil, EMs: All Eyes On The Fed Minutes

European stocks are down led by tech, chemicals, alongside EM stocks which retreated from near a one-year high and oil fell for the first time in a week after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials revived bets on U.S. interest rate rises this year, and pushed the dollar higher from 7 week lows ahead of today's Fed Minutes. S&P 500 futures were little changed following yesterday's drop from record highs

Key Events In The Peak Vacation Season Week

With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Frontrunning: August 1

  • Global stocks hit highest in a year but banks take shine off Europe (Reuters)
  • Fed’s Dudley Warns It Is Premature to Rule Out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year (WSJ)
  • Fed’s Kaplan Says September ‘On the Table’ If Data Support (BBG)
  • Europe's stress tests fail to ease investors' bank sector worries (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Attacks on Khan Family Roil Race But May Not Alter It (BBG)

Euro Stocks Reverse Early Gains Dragged Lower By Slumping Banks; US Futures Flat; Crude Slides

Following last Friday's shocking weak US GDP print, Asian stocks jumped to an 11 month high on reduced prospects of a near-term rate hike, while the region also digested mostly encouraging in conflicting Chinese PMI data. European bank stocks initially rose following the release of the 2016 stress test then declined, tempering gains in global equity indexes, amid investor skepticism over the usefulness of stress-test results and weaker oil prices.

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

Gundlach Feels Like We Are Back In December, Says "Stocks Are Dead Money" After A Short Squeeze

Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that the rally in U.S. stocks, which began on Monday, feels like a short squeeze and characterized U.S. stocks as "dead money." He added that  "all that matters is Yellen. She is still there. I feel like we are back in December again, where everyone thinks that there is a super secret that some Fed officials have this knowledge that the economy is really good."

"The Fed Is About To Make A Massive Mistake" Saxobank's Jakobsen Warns

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO of Saxo Bank, says the US Federal Reserve is on the verge of making a mistake about its projected rate hikes. The Fed has given itself the option of hiking interest rates at its June meeting; but Jakobsen says he is sceptical about the proposals, arguing that the Fed is taking the recent improvement in US economic data as an uptick in overall momentum. Jakobsen says the economy is still performing significantly below its potential, but thinks the Fed wants to hike interest rates now so it can lower them at a later date.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites "Risk Off"

After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.

Key US Macro Events In The Coming Week

After last week's key event, the retail sales number, which the market discounted as being too unrealistic (and overly seasonally adjusted) after printing at a 13 month high and attempting to refute the reality observed by countless retailers, this week has a quiet start today with no data of note due out of Europe and just Empire manufacturing (which moments ago missed badly) and the NAHB housing market index of note in the US session this morning.