Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s - the Baby Boom generation - are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift which according to the WSJ "reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations." While aggregate debt of Gen-Xers has admirably declined by 12% in the past 12 years, the aggregate debt of the average Baby Boomer has soared by an unprecedented 169%!
Instead of allocating capital to expensive tail risk bets on direct asset class collapse (in equities, credit, and commodities), it appears, just as we detailed previously, the 'smartest money in the room' is "betting" indirectly on a stock market crash through eurodollar options.
There has been an economic coup d’état in America and most of the world. We are now ruled by about 200 unelected central bankers, monetary apparatchiks and their minions and megaphones on Wall Street and other financial centers. Unlike Senator Joseph McCarthy, we actually do have a list of their names. They need to be exposed, denounced, ridiculed, rebuked and removed.
"Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, ‘hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe',... the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels."
Who said it? - "If it were positive to take interest rates into negative territory I would be voting for that."
After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.
Futures Jump After Bill Dudley Hints At Fed "Policy Error", Warns Of "Significant Consequences" From Strong DollarSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2016 09:37 -0500
"A weakening of the global economy accompanied by further appreciation in an already strong dollar could also have "significant consequences." I read that as saying we're acknowledging that things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of the economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward."
- Bill Dudley
Rand Paul’s signature “Audit the Fed” legislation failed to garner the 60 votes needed in the Senate to move the measure forward. Of course, this is merely the latest in a never-ending series of banker victories, and a truly devastating blow against liberty, free markets, transparency and any hope for government by the people and for the people. Ensuring that light is never shined on the Fed’s shady, corrupt and unaccountable bailout activities has always been a key goal of the American oligarchy, and they succeeded once again.
“I think this interest rate hike is too late. This economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up. I think there’s a high probability that we’re looking at a recession in the next twelve months."
With economic growth currently running at THE LOWEST average growth rate in American history, the time frame between the first rate and next recession will not be long. For investors, there is little “reward” in the current environment for taking on excess exposure to risk assets. The deteriorating junk bond market, declining profitability and weak economic underpinnings suggest that the clock has already begun ticking. The only question is how much time is left.
"The reason for our recession concern is not so much because of what the Fed is about to do – likely embark on a slow hiking cycle beginning in December – but because it did not start the tightening much sooner."
Having noted the plunge in consumer spending expectations to record lows last month, The Fed faces an even bigger problem this month. Despite the apparent wage growth in Friday's magical BLS data, The New York Fed admits "public expectations of future income took a big hit," as the index suffered its biggest one-month decline on record. But the news gets even worse, as 3-year-ahead inflation expectations plunged to record lows (confirming the record low inflation expectations from UMich's) and entirely discounting Stan Fischer's inflation excuses last week. Fianlly, as stocks have stagnated this year as wealth creator for The Fed, consumer expectations of housing price gains have tumbled to series lows. It appears a desperate-to-hike-rates fed is cornered by, as UMIch previously noted, "a disinflationary mindset is taking hold."
- Dollar at three-month high as payrolls paralysis sets in (Reuters)
- 5 Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report (WSJ)
- China to Lift Ban on IPOs (WSJ)
- ArcelorMittal Is Latest Victim of China's Steel-Export Glut (BBG)
- 'Hope to see you again': China warship to U.S. destroyer after South China Sea patrol (Reuters)
- Giants Tighten Grip on Internet Economy (WSJ)
- Questions Surround Valeant CEO Pearson (WSJ)
For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.
Perhaps it was the public shaming of Iceland's diametrically opposite approach to 'dealing' with its bankers, or perhaps Janet Yellen needs a distraction from her own 'Fed Leak' problems, or finally perhaps Carmen Segarra's 2013 whistleblowing over the cozy relationship between Goldman and The New York Fed was just too conspicuous to brush under the carpet. Despite Bill Dudley's insistence that The New York Fed is not a subsidiary of Goldman, The NY Times reports, federal prosecutors are preparing to announce a criminal case this week against a former Goldman banker suspected of taking confidential documents from a source inside the government.