The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook report, in which it now sees the global economy accelerating in broad-based expansion this year, even as it cites shifts to protectionism as a threat, and cuts its outlook to 2018 global trade.
European stocks slide s traders return from a 4-day Easter holidays, Asian equities likewise drop pressured by the ongoing rout in iron ore, while U.S. stock-index futures point to a lower open. British markets were roiled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek an early election on June 8. The FTSE 100 droped 1.3%, on the news, hitting the lowest since Feb. 24
As the world's elite gather in Davos to decide for the minions what the world should look like, The IMF has taken a far dimmer view of global (and by that we mean Trumpian) economic growth than markets appear to be. In addition to slashing Brazilian, Mexican, and Saudi Arabian economic growth forecasts, Lagarde's lackeys are taking a cautious stance toward the policies of U.S. President-electDonald Trump, who takes office this week, assuming only a modest boost to the U.S. economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) committed a blunder when it issued a forecast for Venezuela’s end-of-year annual inflation rate. An inflation forecast in a country that is toying with hyperinflation is a mug’s game.
"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time." = Albert Edwards
If the IMF doesn’t disclose its method for calculating inflation in Venezuela and doesn’t have any access to the country, why do the FT’s reporters continue to report a flawed IMF forecast? Because the FT reporters bow to authority unquestioningly. In this case, the IMF.
"Mr Trump may be heading for defeat but the prevalence of low trust, identity politics and demographic divides across the developed world suggests that he will not be the last non-mainstream candidate to come close to power. Moreover, a Clinton presidency is highly likely to be marked by near-continuous investigations as well as the risk of impeachment." - Citi
Recent reportage in the Wall Street Journal by Matt Wirz, Carolyn Cui, and Anatoly Kurmanaev states that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 500 percent. The authors fail to indicate the source for that 500 percent figure.
"I am doubtful that the price of oil can rise very high, for very long. Our oil price problem is part of a much larger problem. Once we understand the reason for our low-price problem–diminishing returns and the economy’s tie to the use of energy - it is clear that there is no way out of the problem over the longer term."
The end of growth exposes the stupidity and ignorance of all but (and even that’s a maybe) a precious few (of our) ‘leaders’. We are transcending into an entirely different stage of our lives, our economies, our societies. Growth is gone, it went out the window long ago only to be replaced with debt. And that’s going to take a lot of getting used to. But there’s nothing that says we couldn’t see it coming.
Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.
Having observed consensus economic growth expectations for the US tumble month after month, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF decided to once again play catch down from its over-optimistic +2.2% outlook in July to just 1.6% now which still remains above consensus expectations of just 1.5% growth in 2016, pouring cold water on Obama's strategy to paint the economy as growing strongly.