World Economic Outlook

Can The Price Of Oil Hold Above $50 Per Barrel?

"I am doubtful that the price of oil can rise very high, for very long. Our oil price problem is part of a much larger problem. Once we understand the reason for our low-price problem–diminishing returns and the economy’s tie to the use of energy - it is clear that there is no way out of the problem over the longer term."

Globalization Is Done

The end of growth exposes the stupidity and ignorance of all but (and even that’s a maybe) a precious few (of our) ‘leaders’. We are transcending into an entirely different stage of our lives, our economies, our societies. Growth is gone, it went out the window long ago only to be replaced with debt. And that’s going to take a lot of getting used to. But there’s nothing that says we couldn’t see it coming.

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde Should Resign Immediately

Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.

IMF Slashes US GDP Growth Outlook: Now Sees US Growing Only 1.6% In 2016

Having observed consensus economic growth expectations for the US tumble month after month, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF decided to once again play catch down from its over-optimistic +2.2% outlook in July to just 1.6% now  which still remains above consensus expectations of just 1.5% growth in 2016, pouring cold water on Obama's strategy to paint the economy as growing strongly.

Lagarde Flip-Flops Again On Brexit, Warns Of "Disastrous" Trump-Style Protectionism

Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty. After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform. Today Largarde is certain of disastrous consequences if another large county turns protectionist. In doing so, she pointed her finger at Donald Trump.

IMF Warns Brexit "Uncertainty" Means "Even Lower Growth" For UK, EU

“Brexit has created significant uncertainty and we believe this is likely to dampen growth in the near term, particularly in the U.K. but with repercussions also for Europe and the global economy. Prolonged periods of uncertainty and associated declines in consumer and business confidence would mean even lower growth”

IMF Urges Obama To "Tackle Poverty" As It Tells Yellen To Overshoot Inflation Target

In its latest staff statement on the annual analysis of the U.S. economy, the IMF again demonstrated why economists have become the butt of financial jokes, when in the same report it first urged the Fed to "overshoot" its 2% inflation target, clearly unaware of the dramatic shift in sentiment that unorthofox monetary policy no longer works to stimulate inflation, and in fact quite the opposite, while at the same time it cut its US GDP forecast yet again, from 2.4% to 2.2%, and concluded that, drumroll, there is "an urgent need to tackle poverty."

Steve H. Hanke's picture

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam.

Frontrunning: April 13

  • China trade surprise gives stocks a lift (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan profit hurt by drop in investment banking revenue (Reuters)
  • About 40,000 Verizon workers launch strike (Reuters)
  • Regulators Set to Reject Some Big Banks’ ‘Living Wills’ (WSJ)
  • More Startups Are Getting Lower Valuations Than Joining the Billion-Dollar Club (BBG)
  • Closures and court cases leave Turkey's media increasingly muzzled (Reuters)

IMF Again Cuts Global Growth Forecast As It Warns Of "Secular Stagnation"

Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower.

"There Is A Lot Of Fear In The Market" - Stocks, Futures Slide After Yen Soars

Two days after stocks slid in a coordinated risk-off session, and one day after a DOE estimate of US oil inventories sent US stocks surging while the failed Allergan-Pfizer deal unleashed torrential hopes of a biotech M&A spree leading to the single best day for the sector in 5 years, sentiment has again shifted, this time due to a violent surge in the Yen as the market keeps testing the resolve of the Japanese central bank to keep its currency weak, and so far finding it to be nonexistent.

Our Economic Growth System Is Reaching Its Limits In A Strange Way

Growth now is slowing because of all of the entropy issues involved. People in China cannot stand any more pollution. Too many laborers in developed countries are being marginalized by globalization and by competition with ever more intelligent machines that can replace much of the function of humans. None of this would be a problem, except that we have a huge amount of debt that needs to be repaid with interest, and we need commodity prices to rise high enough to encourage production. If these problems are not fixed, the whole system will collapse, even though there seems to be a surplus of energy products.