YTD Performance

As Breakevens Plummet, The Narrative Has Reset

Interest rates are again being allowed to move per market forces--at least in the US—and as rates volatility suppression became the calling card of the QE era, interest rates as the ‘vol trigger’ mechanism within modern market structure / asset management is slowly being reset.

To RBC, This Is The Single Largest Risk To The Market Right Now

The US Dollar is the “grand unifying theory asset” for nearly any and all “profile” global macro or thematic equities trades in the marketplace right now, as it represents investors being long this “new” version of “economic growth.”  As such, performance is significantly tied to the direction in the US Dollar.

Explaining Today's Market Action (Hint: Blame Risk Parity)

"The punchline is that the passive / smart beta / risk-parity / risk-control systematic universe often times ARE the entities in the market causing counter-intuitive trading behavior, such as today’s price-action."

"Get Ya Popcorn Ready" RBC Says: "Markets Are Paralyzed With Uncertainty" As "Spook Story" Arrives

"So here we go: BoJ ready to commit to go deeper negative rates and experiment with their curve, the Fed is seemingly locked-and-loaded on a hike as global growth rolls over, a deluge of supply into a suddenly wobbly rates backdrop, and a loaded-coil of synthetically low volatility across asset classes…as cross-asset correlations trickle back near multi-year/crisis extremes."

Chipotle Soars After Bill Ackman Reveals 9.9% Stake, Goes Activist

Many thought that having been squeezed between the terrible performance of his Valeant long and his Herbalife short, that Bill Ackman would quietly fade into the sunset. No such luck, and as he revealed moments ago in a 13D filing, the Pershing Square founder has just gone activist on Chipotle, revealing a 9.9% stake, announcing he is "intend to engage in discussions" with management and the board.

One Year Later, This Is What Would Prompt Another "Risk-Parity" Blow Up

Last week’s sharp sell-off in JGBs following the BoJ’s decision not to cut rates, renewed investor fears of forced selling by risk parity funds. This was accentuated as it took place roughly one year after last August's notable risk-parity sharp, market-moving deleveraging. So under what conditions could a similar risk-parity blow up take place again? Here is the answer.

"What The Hell Just Happened" - To Gartman "Yesterday Was Our Worst Day Of The Year Thus Far"

"Having been 150 Dow points higher and then only moments later to have traded down to where the Dow was suddenly 150 lower, the market finished effectively unchanged, with the Bulls and the Bears left scratching their heads and wondering aloud, “What the hell just happened?”... Yesterday was our worst day of the year thus far, as that which we were long of fell and that which we were short of closed unchanged."

S&P Futures Jump As Rebound In Commodities Helps Defense Of Key Support Trendline

With China's Plunge Protection Team having intervened and set a positive spin on another poor session, traders put declines in Asia behind them as European markets rose along with U.S. index futures and commodities. European shares advanced for the first time in three days on speculation the region’s central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus on Thursday. A gauge of raw materials rebounded from its biggest selloff in a month, buoyed by gains in oil and copper. Furthermore, the previously noted selloff in Japanese government bonds - one which triggered circuit breakers and which some speculated may have been precipitated by the BOJ itself - dragged Treasuries and German bunds lower, gold fell a second day and the euro dropped versus most of its major peers.

JPMorgan Head Quant Explains Why Most Hedge Funds Have Been Slammed In 2016

"YTD performance of equity long-short Hedge Funds was likely dragged down by their net long equity exposure and heavy exposure to popular growth and momentum stocks. As a result, the HFRXEH index performed in line with passive investors (S&P 500). The momentum selloff in the first week of February negatively impacted equity quants who are on average overweight  momentum/low volatility factors"

Why Stocks Have So Far Ignored The Carnage In Credit: Goldman's Five Reasons

Despite the decline in stock valuations, US equities have performed far better than credit, causing investors to ask us, “What does the credit market see that the equity market does not?” Credit markets are reacting to a real deterioration in corporate balance sheets that the equity market has yet to digest. High yield (HY) credit spreads have widened dramatically since June and are currently in territory typical of recessionary environments. In contrast, the S&P 500 is just 6% below its all time high of 2131 reached in May of this year. Here are five observations...