Two wars are set to break out over the Border Adjustment Tax: one is domestic and involves exporter vs importer alliances, and will soon shift into the Senate. The second war is one which would break out after the BAT is passed, and it would hammer America's biggest trading partners
In a much anticipated speech, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto warned that "Mexico is obliged to take steps to defend itself given the new vision in U.S.," reaffirming Mexico "as a nation open to the world on trade." The peso is leaking lower as he speaks, erasing post-inauguration gains.
The dollar pulled back from close to 14-year highs on Tuesday, US and euro zone government bond yields fell and the price of copper tumbled as traders cashed in gains from a rally fueled by Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. Was that it for the Trump "reflation rally."
"Best to trade long USD against the USD-bloc, our favorite being long USDCAD. Also EURUSD and GBPUSD to weaken - USDJPY might be a bit mixed until Friday. The market is likely to continue bias long-USD into NFP (which is still a week away), but given the trend in jobless claims, its hard not to have "some" positive expectations for next Friday."
A Venezuelan woman died on Monday after being shot in the face when looters raided state food warehouses in the latest unrest in Venezuela. When security forces chased some of the crowd after they broke in, "they jumped down a bank to protect themselves, and a policeman who was pursuing them shot her. They shot her in the face."
As Venezuela drowns in debt and takes its state-run oil company, PDVSA, down with it, Reuters is reporting that BP has over 2 million barrels of oil stuck at a terminal in the Caribbean over unpaid bills.
At this juncture, the only thing we can say is that we hope the lawyers for all of the advertising partners who just spent a total of $1 billion with NBC's executive vice president of advertising sales Seth Winter took a good look at the fine print before signing on the dotted line and cutting the checks.
"There is a concern that this competitive devaluations channel (the first link) may have broken down (to a large extent) because of the collapse in global trade. Global growth today is generating much less trade growth than in the past (chart below). As a result, currency adjustment is not enough to spur growth significantly because global trade is increasingly less important to the overall makeup of GDP. This raises the possibility that the currency war is largely futile."
"Within equities which sectors are most vulnerable? We aggregate publically available holdings data to see how overweight these SWFs funds are positioned in terms of sectors and regions relative to the composition of the MSCI AC World index. With the caveat that these publicly available data represent only a portion of their public equity holdings, we find that SWFs are most overweight Financials and Consumer Discretionary, and most underweight Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Technology."