"Within equities which sectors are most vulnerable? We aggregate publically available holdings data to see how overweight these SWFs funds are positioned in terms of sectors and regions relative to the composition of the MSCI AC World index. With the caveat that these publicly available data represent only a portion of their public equity holdings, we find that SWFs are most overweight Financials and Consumer Discretionary, and most underweight Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Technology."
"Assuming selling in accordance to the average allocation of FX Reserve Managers and SWF across asset classes, we estimate that the sales of bonds by oil producing countries will increase from -$45bn in 2015 to -$110bn in 2016 and that the sales of public equities will increase from -$10bn in 2015 to -$75bn in 2016."
Another Bank Throws In The Towel: "After 6 Years Of Outperformance" Citi Cuts US Stocks To UnderweightSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 10:35 -0500
Yesterday JPM, which despite calling for a 2,200 year end price target, paradoxically warned that the regime of "buying dips" is over, and that "we take the view that equities are unlikely to perform well on a 12-24 month horizon" adding that "the regime of buying the dips might be over and selling any rallies might be the new one." So don't buy dips yet somehow the S&P will rise 150 points? Fair enough. Today, it is Citigroup's turn to try to somehow predict both a 12% "gain for global equities in 2016" even as it tells clients to start selling US stocks because "fading EPS momentum and rising Fed funds mean that, after 6 consecutive years of outperformance, we cut the US to Underweight."
After The BOJ And ECB, Will Yellen Disappoint Next? SocGen Warns There Is "Risk The Market Will Be Wrong-Footed"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015 11:42 -0500
According to ScGen, the Fed is widely expected to start tightening policy on Wednesday and adds that "after the BoJ and ECB, we see a risk that the market will be wrong-footed for a third time, and that extreme positions built ahead of tightening will be reversed.... In particular, we are short US small cap equities vs large via being short Russell 2000 vs S&P 500.... As the Fed tightens and the market enters into a lower-liquidity environment (and higher-volatility regime), we think the premium on small caps is no longer justified."
“We have come with our honor to recognize these adverse results, to accept them and tell Venezuela that the constitution and democracy have triumphed, We accept the results just as they have been announced by the electoral body.”
"The liquidity picture for EM corporates in 2017 looks less appealing, due to a 38% yoy increase in USD bond maturities (to USD122bn) and lingering uncertainty on commodity prices (an important component of the corporate sectors’ cash flow) and FX (a headwind for domestic-oriented players). A further depletion in cash buffers and reduced appetite for certain portions of the EM corporate universe may lead to increased refinancing stress in 2017."
If we assume that China’s hard landing can and will get hard-er-er, it’s worth asking which assets and currencies have priced in a further deceleration in the world’s engine of global growth and trade. Barclays has more on what’s expensive and what’s cheap vis-a-vis persistent deterioration in the Chinese growth story.
"There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank": Argentina's New President Confronts Liquidity CrisisSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 14:51 -0500
On Monday, Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, beat out Cristina Kirchner’s handpicked successor Daniel Scioli for Argentina’s presidency in what amounted to a referendum on 12 years of Peronist rule. Now, Macri faces a trio of daunting tasks: i) restore central bank liquidity, ii) implement a new FX regime, and iii) tackle the ballooning budget deficit. The most most pressing concern: the central bank is literally out of dollars.
"Today is a historic day. It’s the changing of an era. We can live in an Argentina without poverty, where we can all aspire to have our own homes with running water and a sewage system."
"The question is whether this is going to be something like the rebirth of Argentina or another failed dream that people get excited about, but then they can’t overcome the challenges.”
By now, everyone knows Brazil is stuck in a stagflationary nightmare that's made immeasurably worse by the country's seemingly intractable political crisis. But what about the rest of Latin America? Goldman takes a close look at the regional outlook for the next four years and finds a decidedly unfavorable growth-inflation mix.
The torrid October, with its historic S&P500 point rally, is finally in the history books, and at least for a select group of hedge funds such as Glenview, Pershing Square and Greenlight and certainly their L.P.s, a very scary Halloween couldn't come fast enough, leading to losses between 15% and 20%. How did everyone else fare? Below, courtesy of Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, is a summary of what worked in October (and YTD), and what didn't.
Bullish Fund Flows Return With A Vengeance: Largest Equity Inflow In 6 Weeks; Money Put Into Bonds, CommoditiesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2015 07:04 -0500
The bullish fund flows are back. This is how Bank of America summarizes the latest EPFR capital flow sentiment: "Loving Wall Street: $15bn equity inflows + $5bn HY/IG inflows + 6 straight weeks of commodity inflows = investors are "risk-on."
It's no secret that Brazil was long expected to be the epicenter of any future EM crisis just as it was, in many ways, the picture of EM success during better times. That said, even we’ve been surprised with the pace at which the situation has deteriorated and in the wake of the S&P downgrade the market is now left to ponder just how much worse things can get. According to Goldman the list of obstacles is laughably long.
"When central bankers start talking like FX strategists, it can signal something important"...