New York Fed

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Brace Yourself For The Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning

"...debt is simply everywhere, at least to the extent we can see and measure it. Corporate and sovereign debt, of both the developed world and emerging market varieties, are at record levels. China’s debts certainly add to that record but who really knows to what extent? It’s the ultimate black box of leverage on Planet Earth... You cannot NOT worry about the Fed in this world...The simple truth is ending reinvestment would bring the bond market to its knees.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

Dutch Central Bank To Move Its Gold From Amsterdam To A Former Military Air Base

The Dutch central bank announced it would move the country’s gold reserves from Amsterdam to a former military airbase located on land owned by the defence ministry near Zeist. The security measures necessary to guard the gold are a problem for both staff and visitors, the bank said in a statement on Thursday.

What Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Told The New York Fed

  • this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
  • the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
  • the risks are asymmetric to the downside
  • the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism.

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.

The U.S. Economy: Bad Moon Rising

As for the incredible realm, one explanation is that the Fed is scared stiff it has nothing left in its toolbox to combat the next recession. Few major downturns have begun with the fed funds rate so perilously close to zero. The ultimate Catch 22 is that the flatness of the yield curve makes any fantasy of a Fed rate hike all too real for a dead breed the world once knew as ‘bond market vigilantes.’ It’s altogether possible that one more hike would be all it takes to invert the yield curve. The rest, as history has never failed to repeat, would be just that – history.