New York Fed

The U.S. Economy: Bad Moon Rising

As for the incredible realm, one explanation is that the Fed is scared stiff it has nothing left in its toolbox to combat the next recession. Few major downturns have begun with the fed funds rate so perilously close to zero. The ultimate Catch 22 is that the flatness of the yield curve makes any fantasy of a Fed rate hike all too real for a dead breed the world once knew as ‘bond market vigilantes.’ It’s altogether possible that one more hike would be all it takes to invert the yield curve. The rest, as history has never failed to repeat, would be just that – history.

"Will Yellen Shock Today?"

Well, we made it. It’s finally Janet Yellen day. Has a speech by a Fed Chair ever been anticipated, dissected and stressed over to this extent? It’s partially down to the fact that she has largely, even unprecedentedly, made herself unavailable for public comment. Sending her minions out to confuse us. But more distressingly, they have put themselves in a situation where a measly 25 basis points looms like a life-changing event. 

8 Of 12 Regional Feds Voted To Hike Discount Rate In July, One Shy Of The 9 Last November

This means that as of a month ago, two thirds of all regional Feds were urging Yellen to hike the discount rate; they were the following: Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Richmond, San Francisco and St. Louis. Those who voted to keep discount rate at 1% cited argument that outlook and below-target inflation supported keeping current accommodation in place; banks were Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, and especially the New York. Clearly they dominated the discussion.

Global Stocks Drop, US Futures Down As Dollar Rebound Halts Longest Oil Rally In Years

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.

S&P Futures Unchanged As Europe Rises; Dollar Slide Sends Oil Above $47

In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47

Key Events In The Peak Vacation Season Week

With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

After last week's central bank and GDP fireworks, we have another busy week on deck culminating with Friday's jobs report, the 100% priced in BOE rate cut, as well as a possible easing by the RBA.Here is the full breakdown.

Great Numbers! Curious Timing?

Pretend you’re running a corrupt government and something big and scary happens in another part of the world. Brexit, for instance. You’re quite naturally worried about the impact on your local economy and political system. What do you do? Well, one obvious thing would be to call the statisticians who compile your economic reports and tell them to fudge the next batch of numbers.

Lessons From The Worst Banking Crisis In History

A very reliable rule of thumb to keep in mind during (and before) a banking crisis: don’t trust anyone in the establishment, especially a politician. It’s good advice these days.. Europe’s banks and its governments are caught like two drunken sailors holding each other up.

 

Here We Go Again - Stockman Warns Of August 2007 Redux

Nearly everywhere on the planet the giant financial bubbles created by the central banks during the last two decades are fracturing. The latest examples are the crashing bank stocks in Italy and elsewhere in Europe and the sudden trading suspensions by four UK commercial property funds. If this is beginning to sound like August 2007 that’s because it is. And the denials from the casino operators are coming in just as thick and fast.

Yellen Credibility Watch Day 2: "Humphrey Hawkins" Hearings Live Feed

Yesterday she hinted "sell stocks" and "vote remain," before admitting The Fed's forecasting skills were worse than Punxatawney Phil. While today's prepared remarks will be the same, we wonder what the politicians on The House Financial Services Committee will have learned ahead of today's Q&A - most notably will the topic of gender, race equality be dragged up once again because of its crucial import to those campaigning in the forthcoming elections. Following Bank of Japan's Kuroda's overnight capitulation that "monetary policy doesn't always turn out as expected,"  we wonder if Yellen will be forced to admit the same.