New York Fed

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Empire Fed Rebounds But Employment Indicators Tumble, Optimism Declines

Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity was essentially flat in November, with the general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory for the first time in four months, rising eight points to 1.5 above the expected -2.5. However, in a troubling sign, both employment indicators declined notably, while inventory levels hit a 4 year low, as optimism about the future posted a modest decline.

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Brace Yourself For The Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning

"...debt is simply everywhere, at least to the extent we can see and measure it. Corporate and sovereign debt, of both the developed world and emerging market varieties, are at record levels. China’s debts certainly add to that record but who really knows to what extent? It’s the ultimate black box of leverage on Planet Earth... You cannot NOT worry about the Fed in this world...The simple truth is ending reinvestment would bring the bond market to its knees.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

Dutch Central Bank To Move Its Gold From Amsterdam To A Former Military Air Base

The Dutch central bank announced it would move the country’s gold reserves from Amsterdam to a former military airbase located on land owned by the defence ministry near Zeist. The security measures necessary to guard the gold are a problem for both staff and visitors, the bank said in a statement on Thursday.