New York Fed

Cheat Or Chump? - You Are Not An Investor

"You are not an investor. One can only be an investor in functioning markets. There have been no functioning markets since at least 2008, and probably much longer. That’s when central banks started purchasing financial assets, for real, which means that is also the point when price discovery died. And without price discovery no market can function."

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

Breslow: "The Pain Trades Are Giving Traders Headaches"

The Fed has been hiking. Their speeches have been consistently optimistic on the traction that’s been achieved toward reaching their mandate. And more, rather than less, portraying a board on the same page. Yet the pain trade keeps traders reacting much more to any perceived dovishness.

Are Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?

Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.