New York Fed

Yellen Credibility Watch Day 2: "Humphrey Hawkins" Hearings Live Feed

Yesterday she hinted "sell stocks" and "vote remain," before admitting The Fed's forecasting skills were worse than Punxatawney Phil. While today's prepared remarks will be the same, we wonder what the politicians on The House Financial Services Committee will have learned ahead of today's Q&A - most notably will the topic of gender, race equality be dragged up once again because of its crucial import to those campaigning in the forthcoming elections. Following Bank of Japan's Kuroda's overnight capitulation that "monetary policy doesn't always turn out as expected,"  we wonder if Yellen will be forced to admit the same.

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

Today's NFP report will be under intense scrutiny as it is the final jobs report before the June rate decision by the FOMC. The market has increased the probability of a hike at the June meeting significantly in recent weeks and a strong labour market will be critical to allow the Fed to proceed with a June or July "normalization."

Just Three Things

Historically speaking, it is unlikely that with reported earnings early in the reversion process that we will see a sharp recovery in the second half of the year as currently expected by the majority of mainstream analysts. As long as the Fed remains accommodative, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy will continue to stretch to extremes. The end result of which has never “been different this time.”

Why This Friday's Payrolls Report Could See A Big Miss

When the main economic event this week hits this Friday at 8:30 am EDT, when the BLS releases the May payrolls report, Wall Street consensus wil be expecting a 160,000 print, a number which will have a big impact on market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the June or July FOMC meeting. However, consensus may be disappointed for one reason: the Verizon strike could chop off as much as 35,000 workers from the headline payrolls print.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites "Risk Off"

After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.

Key US Macro Events In The Coming Week

After last week's key event, the retail sales number, which the market discounted as being too unrealistic (and overly seasonally adjusted) after printing at a 13 month high and attempting to refute the reality observed by countless retailers, this week has a quiet start today with no data of note due out of Europe and just Empire manufacturing (which moments ago missed badly) and the NAHB housing market index of note in the US session this morning.

Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up"

"My fear is that central banks are now taking this too far through negative interest rates in particular and that they’re going to literally destroy their own banking systems. If they’re actually successful in generating higher inflation, then they’re going to destroy their own bond markets... our government officials, and I will include the Federal Reserve in that, have failed the American people."

Goldman Warns Central Banks May Unleash "Financial Turbulence, Rate Shock" As It Cuts Yield Forecasts

"On the policy front, all three major central banks can create financial turbulence if not careful in managing investors expectations. The Fed is tightening with very few hikes priced - a historical anomaly - increasing the odds of a 'rate shock'. The ECB and the BoJ are distorting the price of duration (and in Europe, sovereign credit) through their asset purchase programs. Any unanticipated shift in their behaviour could have magnified effects on asset prices."