New York Fed

U.S. Prepping Case Linking North Korea To $81MM New York Fed Bank Heist

As tensions between the U.S and North Korea continue to escalate, with the most recent provacation coming from Kim Jong Un just last night, the Wall Street Journal has just reported that Federal prosecutors are building potential cases that would accuse North Korea of directing the theft of $81 million from Bangladesh’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

Stocks Mixed As Treasuries Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2012, Dollar Pops Ahead Of ADP

Asian markets dropped following disappointing China trade and Japan GDP data, while European stocks rebounded for the first time in five sessions led by miners and banks. US futures were little changed with a strong dollar pressuring oil below $53; sterling slid for the eighth day out of nine before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. Treasuries are headed for their longest losing streak since 2012 ahead of a 10Y U.S. debt auction, and today's ADP private payrolls report.

Can Yellen Keep The Boom Going?

Yellen, like notorious previous Fed chiefs including Strong, Martin, and Greenspan, can now claim success in having prolonged and strengthened an asset price inflation which otherwise may well have been about to enter its severe end phase. If history is any guide, the result of that success is to be feared.

Jim Bianco Warns "Inflation Is Going To Be A Game Changer"

"Inflation will soon become a main concern for investors... this will change the basic relationship between stocks and bonds and could set up the financial markets for severe turmoil, like in the late 1990s when the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management sent shock waves around the globe."

US Household Debt Rose To $12.6 Trillion In 2016: Biggest Jump In A Decade

Total US household debt jumped in Q4 driven by increases in credit card debt, auto and student loans, and a Q4 surge in mortgage originations, and as of December 31, 2016, stood at $12.58 trillion. For the full year, total household debt rose by $460 billion, the biggest annual increase in a decade.

Payrolls Preview: Expect An Upside Surprise (Thanks To The Weather)

Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.

Key Events In The Coming "Big Week" For The US

Markets will again zero in on the U.S. this week, and not just because of Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve meeting and nonfarm payrolls may set a clear direction for dollar and yields for the next few months. Other key releases include ISM, ADP, housing data, personal income & spending, vehicle sales and core PCE.

Will The Fed Start Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Here Is Goldman's Answer

"We would be very surprised to see a discussion of asset sales under Chair Yellen’s leadership, but a shift to more active management of the maturity of new Treasury purchases could be an option; shortening the duration of new purchases would quicken portfolio runoff once it begins." - Goldman Sachs