New York Fed

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

The Case Against Fed Reform

Instead of a Fed reform, we need Fed competition: eliminate legal tender laws, remove the burdensome taxes placed on gold, Bitcoin and other potential currencies, and give Americans a true alternative to Federal Reserve notes for those who want it.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

Bundesbank Repatriates Gold From New York, Paris "Faster Than Planned"

In 2016 the Bundesbank repatriated more of its gold than planned, as it moved toward relocating half of the world's second-largest reserve at home. "We brought back significantly more gold to Germany in 2016 again than initially planned. By now, almost half of the gold reserves are in Germany," Buba president Jens Weidmann said.

Fed Revises Reverse Repo Terms: This Is How It Will Implement The Rate Hike

As expected, in addition to raising the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps, the Fed similarly noted that it would revise the mechanics behind its reverse repo operations, raising the rate it charges on reverse repos by 25 bps to 0.5%, the actual means by which the Fed will hike rates for most market participants. Here is the statement that the Fed released regarding the change in overnight reverse repos.

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Empire Fed Rebounds But Employment Indicators Tumble, Optimism Declines

Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity was essentially flat in November, with the general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory for the first time in four months, rising eight points to 1.5 above the expected -2.5. However, in a troubling sign, both employment indicators declined notably, while inventory levels hit a 4 year low, as optimism about the future posted a modest decline.

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.