New York Fed

Are Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?

Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.

Morgan Stanley Finds A "Stunning Divergence" In The Economic Data

"The divergence is stunning. Upside surprises appear to be completely driven by the soft data... we would not necessarily expect 'hard data' surprise indices to start racing higher if the factors behind the 2Q growth rebound remain narrowly confined to a few sectors as we expect..."

Six Graphs That Reveal Big Problems For Student And Auto Loans

A trillion dollars of housing debt has been replaced by a trillion dollars (or more) of student and auto loan debt. Delinquency rates are increasing for student and auto loans, while other loan types have seen a decrease in delinquency. Finally, the value of both the university education and the automobiles people are buying don’t seem to justify the amount being borrowed and spent.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

U.S. Prepping Case Linking North Korea To $81MM New York Fed Bank Heist

As tensions between the U.S and North Korea continue to escalate, with the most recent provacation coming from Kim Jong Un just last night, the Wall Street Journal has just reported that Federal prosecutors are building potential cases that would accuse North Korea of directing the theft of $81 million from Bangladesh’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last year.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

Stocks Mixed As Treasuries Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2012, Dollar Pops Ahead Of ADP

Asian markets dropped following disappointing China trade and Japan GDP data, while European stocks rebounded for the first time in five sessions led by miners and banks. US futures were little changed with a strong dollar pressuring oil below $53; sterling slid for the eighth day out of nine before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. Treasuries are headed for their longest losing streak since 2012 ahead of a 10Y U.S. debt auction, and today's ADP private payrolls report.

Can Yellen Keep The Boom Going?

Yellen, like notorious previous Fed chiefs including Strong, Martin, and Greenspan, can now claim success in having prolonged and strengthened an asset price inflation which otherwise may well have been about to enter its severe end phase. If history is any guide, the result of that success is to be feared.

Jim Bianco Warns "Inflation Is Going To Be A Game Changer"

"Inflation will soon become a main concern for investors... this will change the basic relationship between stocks and bonds and could set up the financial markets for severe turmoil, like in the late 1990s when the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management sent shock waves around the globe."