New York Fed

Visualizing "Conundrum 2.0": This Is What The Fed Is Missing

As the latest FOMC minutes demonstrated, the current period of especially loose financial conditions - despite a projected 3 rate hikes in 2017 - is confusing the Fed. Deutsche Bank has called this "Conundrum 2.0", and explains what is going on in the following chart...

June Payrolls Preview: With The Fed On Autopilot, You Can Skip This One

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, then another debacle in May, the June payrolls report due at 8:30am will be... very much irrelevant, because as Citi pointed out earlier, the Fed is now data-indepdendent and will keep hiking until financial conditions finally tighten (read: stocks drop). For what it's worth, here are the consensus expectations for tomorrow's report.

Key Events In The Coming Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, Fed Minutes, ISM, G-20

The key economic releases this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Fed Vice Chair Fischer on Thursday. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

How The Fed Helps The US Spy On Foreign Governments

It's widely known that the Federal Reserve has been tasked by Congress with a "dual mandate" to maintain maintain stable consumer-goods prices, low unemployment and - oh yeah - buoyant equity prices.  However, as Reuters revealed on Monday, the central bank has another legally binding obligation that might upset some of its clients: Helping US intelligence agencies spy on foreign governments.

Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: Brexit, Housing And Lots Of Fed Speakers

In an otherwise relatively quiet week in which the only upcoming US data is housing, current account and jobless claims, UK politics will again draw attention, one year (on Friday) after the Brexit referendum and as noted earlier, Brexit negotiations begin on Monday, despite lingering political uncertainty in the UK. Also no less than 9 FOMC members are scheduled to speak this week.

Global Stocks Jump, Dow Futs At New All Time Highs As Brexit Talks Begin

S&P futures rose 0.3% in subdued trading with Dow Jones futs once again in record territory as European stocks jump 0.6% following Sunday's landslide victory for Macron's party in the French parliamentary elections and as Brexit negotiations are set to officially roll out on Monday.

New York Fed Soars To Highest Since Sept 2014, Philly Fed Also Beats

In a much needed confirmation that Janet Yellen did not make a policy mistake by hiking rates yesterday, moments ago both the Empire State and Philly Feds smashed expectations, with the first printing at the highest level since September 2014 of 19.8, above the expected 4, and well above May's -1 contraction print, while the Philly Fed posted at 27.6, also beating consensus estimates of 24, if a drop from last month's 38.8.

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this week's FOMC meeting particularly interesting. First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?

What Trump Told Yellen In The Oval Office (Next To Gary Cohn)

Weeks after his inauguration, President Trump held court with Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in the Oval Office. Seated behind the office’s Resolute desk, he told her she was doing a good job, the WSJ reports, and adds that  "the president told Ms. Yellen he considered her, like himself, a “low-interest-rate” person."

Key Events In The Coming Week: Thursday Turmoil Trifecta

This week will be all about rhe "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" when the UK general election will be highlight of a busy week together with the ECB monetary policy meeting, while rounding off events in the US will be James Comey's first public testimony since he was fired by Donald Trump in which he is expected to testify that Trump pressured him to end the Russian probe into Mike Flynn.