Auto Sales

US Household Debt Rose To $12.6 Trillion In 2016: Biggest Jump In A Decade

Total US household debt jumped in Q4 driven by increases in credit card debt, auto and student loans, and a Q4 surge in mortgage originations, and as of December 31, 2016, stood at $12.58 trillion. For the full year, total household debt rose by $460 billion, the biggest annual increase in a decade.

Key Events In The Coming Humphrey-Hawkish Week

The key economic releases this week are CPI, retail sales, and industrial production on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday (Humphrey-Hawkins).

It's Time To Start Worrying About China Again

The central bank on Friday increased the interest rates on reverse repo by 10bp - the last time the PBOC raised OMO rates was more than two years ago in 2014. The PBOC also increased SLF rates, in what some have dubbed "the Most Important Unnoticed Global Event."

US Auto Industry In Crisis Amid "Inventory Bubble"

Despite record U.S. auto sales last year, the number of vehicles on car-dealer lots remains near record highs, and, as J.D.Power analyst Thomas King warned this week, 2016 ended with an inventory "bubble" that will require less production or more incentives to clear.

Cadillac Launches First Ever "Vehicle Subscription" Service

With record low interest rates, stretched out financing terms and an insatiable wall street demand for subprime auto securitizations all teaming up to drive record-high auto sales, Cadillac seems to think there is little room for incremental upside in their traditional auto sales/leasing business so they've decided to pursue an alternative business strategy whereby they just sell cars to themselves instead. 

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump

The main economic release this week is US retail sales, ECB minutes and a series of Chinese economic releases. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a webcast address by Chair Yellen on Thursday. However, the highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win.

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."