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6 Regional Feds Voted To Hike The Discount Rate In Early June, Up From 4 In April

Back in April, when the world was still reeling from the China devaluation inflicted market slump, the Fed's discount rate minutes for the months of March/April showed that 4 regional Feds wanted a 25 bps rate hike, up from just two  - the Richmond Fed and Kansas City - in the Feb/March meeting. Moments ago the Fed released its latest May/June Discount Rate Minutes which revealed that both the (Jim Bullard's) St. Louis and Boston Feds joined four other regional Feds, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco, in seeking a quarter point increase in Fed discount rate to 1.25 percent prior to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting.

Saudi Strategy Working: OPEC Captures Largest Market Share Since 1975

OPEC has captured its largest share of the oil market since 1975, which could be seen as a vindication of the cartel’s strategy over the past two years. But it also creates vulnerabilities for the U.S. and others, who are once again increasingly dependent on the Middle East for oil.

JPMorgan Says Recession Odds Rise To New Cycle Highs

After edging down to 34% on June 16, JPM's preferred macroeconomic indicator of the probability that a recession begins within 12 months has moved back up and now sits at 37%, the highest it has been in the current economic cycle.

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

"Our Monetary Humpty-Dumpty Is Heading For A Great Fall" - Teetering On The Eccles Building Wall

So for the third time this century, a business cycle contraction will come without warning from the Fed. Once again the Kool-Aid drinking perma-bulls, day traders and robo-machines will be bloodied as they stampede for the exit ramps. But it is the main street homegamers, who have been lured back into the casino for the third time this century, that will suffer devastating losses yet another time. Indeed, if there were even a modicum of honesty left in the Eccles Building it would be warning about the weakening trends in the US economy, not cheerleading about fleeting and superficial signs of improvement.

"Off The Rails" - What Slumping Rail Traffic Tells Us About The U.S. Economy

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads (“AAR”) can provide a reasonable snapshot of US economic performance almost in real time by looking at diverse categories of transported goods and commodities. It can also highlight important changes in trends and areas of weakness, or red flags. So let’s see what these indicators are telling us midway through 2016.

Frontrunning: June 30

  • Brexiters at war as Johnson pulls bid to be PM (FT)
  • Soros Says Brexit Has ‘Unleashed’ a Financial-Markets Crisis (BBG)
  • World stocks poised for worst month since January (Reuters)
  • China to tolerate weaker yuan, wary of trade partners' reaction (Reuters)
  • China central bank criticizes media for publishing 'inaccurate information' on yuan rate (Reuters)

Business Inventories/Sales Ratio Hovers At Recessionary Highs Despite 'Adjusted' Car Sales Surge

Despite the biggest MoM jump in business sales since February 2014 (up 0.9% MoM driven by a 3.2% surge in auto sales), the crucial inventory-to-sales ratio remains stubbornly high in recession territory. Year-over-year, inventories have risen 1.0% while sales have tumbled 1.3% (massively helped by a dramatic seasonal adjustment from -2.9% actual YoY drop in sales).

Futures Levitate To Session Highs As ECB Enters The Bond Market; Crude Hits $51

In an overnight session dominated by the latest political developments out of the US where Hillary Clinton officially claimed the democratic nomination, the financial newsflow focused on China's trade data, where exports fell 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, but imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014, driven entire by soaring "imports" from Hong Kong - aka capital outflows - which soared by 243% y/y.  The other main news was the official launch of the ECB's corporate bond buying, which helped drive government bonds yields in German to new record lows, and the average yields on investment-grade corporate debt below 1%.

That Didn't Take Long: Fed's Brainard Goes Full Dove One Week After Yellen's Hawkstravaganza

Last Friday, stocks soared as Yellen dropped hawkish hints that The Fed would raise rates "because it was appropriate" implying everything is awesome. One week later - following a terrible Fed-narrative-imploding jobs print - Hillary Clinton-donor and Fed member Lael Brainard goes back to full dove-tard: BRAINARD: U.S. JOBS IN MAY REPORT SUGGESTS LABOR MKT HAS SLOWED, SEES BENEFITS TO FED WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DATA. Nothing would surprise us less to see stock go green today on this dovish news - just as they did last Friday on hawkish sentiment. If (Fed speaks) THEN (Buy).

Jamie Dimon Warns "Someone Will Get Hurt In Auto Lending" As Citi Sees No Rebound From Abysmal First Quarter

Jamie Dimon said the market for U.S. automobile lending is “a little stressed” and that he foresees higher losses ahead for some competitors. “Someone will get hurt in auto lending,” but not JPMorgan, Dimon said. Meanwhile, CEO Citigroup Mike Corbat indicated that the company's second-quarter net income will be roughly 25% lower than the same period a year earlier, roughly the same as the abysmal first quarter.