A non-bombastic analysis of the events and data in the week ahead, with insulting anyone or resorting to conspiracy theories.
Gold "Flash-Crashes" Again Amid Continued Commodity Liquidation As China Manufacturing Slumps To 15-Month LowsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2015 22:00 -0400
As Bridgewater talks back its now widely discussed bearish position on fallout from China's equity market collapse, Chinese stocks rose at the open (before fading after ugly manufacturing data). However, liquidations continue across the commodity complex in copper, gold, and silver. Though not on the scale to Sunday night's collapse, the China open brought another 'flash-crash' in precious metals. All signs point to CCFD unwinds, and forced liquidations as under the surface something smells rotten in China, which has just been confirmed by the lowest Manufacturing PMI print in 15 months.
You know your true level of inflation. You know it’s not 0.1%. You know it’s somewhere between 4% and 10%. You know your government is lying to you. You know the captured corporate media perpetuates the lies. You know those in control of the government must lie to keep their Ponzi scheme going. You know they are just following the Edward Bernays playbook: “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society." They want you to believe it’s for your own good. Do you think it’s for your own good?
Amid record auto loan ABS issuance, record loan terms, and record high average payments, it's no secret that the market for auto loans in the US has become dangerously stretched. Now, the NY Fed is out with what is perhaps the most shocking statistic yet on just how "darn easy" it is to get a car loan
One day after the Greek "pre-deal" was announced and the world breathed a sigh of relief, sending US stocks soaring and Greek halted stocks, well, tumbling (via ETFs and ADRs), things are oddly quiet and in fact quite red in Europe, with futures in the US modestly lower, following both China's first red close in several days (SHCOMP -1.2%), and a Europe which is hardly looking very euphoric at this moment: it is almost as if the algos finally got to read the fine print of the Greek deal after trading all day on just the headlines.
A week ago we exposed the massive number of cars piling up in GM's parking lots in China. A few days later, we note that Chinese auto sales have collapsed at the fastest rate in 3 years and an increasing number of new orders are being cancelled as the stock market crashes. But the triple whammy for US auto manufacturers - who have incessantly pitched China as their growth engine - is news from Huaxia Times that China's import car dealers saw inventory days reach a mind-blowing 143 days in May. For context, the normal average has been 24-36 days. Once again it appears the serial extrapolators at the automakers, excited by the serial extrapolators at the big banks have excitedly mal-invested right at the turn.
The Chinese economy is in an obvious deepening swoon and the median company on the Shanghai exchange had a PE ratio of 60X before the recent break. But no matter. Not only does everything financial race the skyscrapers to the sky in the land of red capitalism, but valuation upside is apparently whatever the comrades in Beijing want it to be. Says Goldman’s chief stock tout for China,“It’s not in a bubble yet.”. Why? Because “China’s government has a lot of tools to support the market.”
A week ago we warned of the odd build up in inventories in GM's parking lots in China. It appears those warning were spot on as WSJ reports, China’s new car sales recorded the first year-over-year decline in more than two years in June, as slowing economic growth and falling stock markets hit the world’s largest auto market. “2015 will be an off-year for the Chinese car market,” said Dong Yang, a vice president for the auto manufacturers’ association, and we note auto dealers are seeing orders cancelled at a frenetic pace as it appears stock margin calls are draining the liquidity car-buyers once had.
"With the drastic fall in share prices recently, social stability is clearly at stake," Credit Suisse says. With the bubble now finished it is only a matter of time before all the 'nouveau riche' farmers and grandparents see all their paper profits wiped out and hopefully go silently into that good night without starting mass riots or a revolution.
Despite broad and deep price cuts introduced earlier in the year, GM's sales in China were roughly flat in June continuing the streak of weakness since March (when GM changed its reporting to retail sales from wholesale delivery). This is the weakest start to a year for China auto sales since 2012 and GM's share price is now back notably below its 2012 IPO price. Judging by the massive volume of cars 'parked' in GM's Shenyang Liaoning lots, it is clear that automakers learned nothing from the last "if we build it, they will come" channel-stuffing inventory surging dysphoria that, among other things, led to their last bankruptcy... if only Chinese buyers would take up the credit terms like Americans.
Judging by the smiling Phil LeBeau who earlier opined of an 8.9% plunge in For F-Series sales that "I don't know if I'd Call that a slowdown," you would think the US Auto industry was killing it. Apart from the fact that all but the most luxurious brands missed expectations, we sum up the month of June's results by nothing the credit-spewed spike in May is now over and domestic car sales are continuing to trend lower. This is the biggest MoM drop since Sept 2014. As Ward's notes, they have now missed expectations for 6 of th elast 7 months...
This wasn't supposed to happen...