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The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.

What The Hell Is Going On?

"The dissonance between what I have been observing and what is being flogged by the establishment mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media has never been greater. I’m 53 years old. The older I get the less sure I am about things I was sure about when I was 25 years old... I find it exhausting. We’re lost in a blizzard of lies."

Fed's Beige Book Notes Decline In Optimism About The Outlook, Sharp Drop In Broadway Attendance

What was most interesting in the latest Beige Book was not the comprehensive summary but the anecdotes revealed by the various districts among them concerns about the stronger dollar, worries about Obamacare repeal, Atlantic City casino revenues, retailer fears about online competition, shipping container volumes, the impact of immigration policy on labor supply and even a sharp drop in Broadway theater attendance. 

EconMatters's picture

It appears the Federal Reserve took notice of the overheated stock market and realized they really must be behind the inflation curve. You don`t reach year end targets in the stock market already at all-time highs and haven`t even gotten out of February, and not wake up and realize that you are way behind the asset bubble inflation rate hiking curve.

US Household Debt Rose To $12.6 Trillion In 2016: Biggest Jump In A Decade

Total US household debt jumped in Q4 driven by increases in credit card debt, auto and student loans, and a Q4 surge in mortgage originations, and as of December 31, 2016, stood at $12.58 trillion. For the full year, total household debt rose by $460 billion, the biggest annual increase in a decade.

Key Events In The Coming Humphrey-Hawkish Week

The key economic releases this week are CPI, retail sales, and industrial production on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday (Humphrey-Hawkins).