• Pivotfarm
    04/17/2014 - 17:08
    You know when you want to read that last page of the book just before you fall off into the Land of Nod and the Sandman comes and sandbags you to fall asleep?

Auto Sales

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 7

  • China Stocks Drop Most in Two Weeks on Slumping Auto Sales, Property Curbs (Bloomberg)
  • Berlusconi’s Majority Unravel as Allies Turning (Bloomberg)
  • Greece to form coalition government (FT)
  • Wen Pledges Property Tightening Resolve (WSJ)
  • G20 seeks more talks on eurozone crisis (FT)
  • ECB Free to Stop Buying Italian Bonds, Mersch Tells La Stampa (Bloomberg)
  • Unloved Treasury Notes Becoming Investor Favorite in Fed’s Operation Twist (Bloomberg)

Tyler Durden's picture

Heading Into The Holiday Season, The US Consumer Is Worse Off Than Last Year

As so often happens, one of the biggest surprises of the recent period of broad economic weakness, has been the American consumer, who always somehow manages to come through (or so the official econometric authorities make us believe) and cross a chasm of economic stagnation with shopping bags full of stuff. But while the "consumer" (or his department of truth proxy) has sourced the US economic dynamo in the past several months as Europe imploded, and thus served as a supporting brace for the latest incarnation of the US decoupling thesis (where not just Europe, but also the economies of Japan and China have been deteriorating rapidly), the reality is that unless European problems are promptly fixed (which they won't be) the last ditch global economic support pillar, the US consumer, is about to roll over, because as Bank of America explains, "heading into the holiday shopping season; most [consumer statistics] measures are no better than they were last year. In fact, many are worse." And in what may be news to JP Morgan, "With home prices continuing to decline, a wealth driven consumption binge looks unlikely." In other words, while for now the bottom had managed not to fall off the global economy as the tapped out US consumer spent their last dollar to avoid a worldwide re-depression, if European problems are not rapidly resolved, and by that we mean well before the Thanksgiving sales begin, not even "record" corporate profits (which incidentally are rolling over and are purely at the expense of consumption capacity), will do much to prevent the market from finally catching up to reality.


Tyler Durden's picture

Retails Sales Beat Expectations On Levered Car And Gas Sales, As Inflation Picks Up Again In Import Prices

There is good and bad news in today's economic data release: on one hand retail sales in September beat expectations at 1.1%, on expectations of 0.7%, and up from an upward revised 0.3% in August. Retail sales less autos was a modest beat at 0.6% on expectations of 0.3%, although the previous number was revised substantially higher from 0.1% to 0.5%. Yet confirming that the bulk of the "beat" was in auto and associated gas sales, was that Retail Sales ex Autos and Gas (duh) came at 0.5% on expectations of 0.4%. Basically, surging subprime loans to autopurchasers and the resulting increase in gasoline sales was the reason for this "surprise" beat. And as for the bad news, import prices jumped to 0.3% in September, on expectations of -0.4%, a surge from August's revised -0.2%. And while fuel imports had dropped in August -1.4%, in September these jumped to a positive 0.1%, showing just how big the monthly sensitivity to any moves in the energy complex are. In other words, should inflation persist, don't expect for retail sales, which we expect to decline to recent deleveraging at the consumer level, to persist.


Tyler Durden's picture

Think An American Economic Resurgence Is Imminent? Don't Be Stupid, Warns Goldman

The recent brief uptick in economic high frequency indicators got you up? Feeling like suddenly the recession can be avoided because train traffic, whose sole goal is to stock up on even more soon to be liquidated inventory, hasn't yet collapsed? Happy by the beat in Non-farm payrolls, even though the beat was primarily a function of a one-time Verizon-strike boost, even as tax witholdings have hit an inflection point and are now declining? Amazed by the surge in car purchases, funded entirely by GM-targeted subprime loans issued by Uncle Sam, which have now declined for the first time in a year? Don't be silly, warns Goldman's Jan Hatzius, and presents a list why while the C-grade commentators out there may be caught off guard by the brief pick up in economic activity and proclaim the period of inverse economic growth over, it is all, quite, pardon the pun, "transitory."


testosteronepit's picture

The Ugly World Of Auto Sales

Down 20% from September 2006. Toyota and Honda got brutally slammed. But don't blame post-earthquake inventory shortages. They have been resolved. It's a shift in the market.


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse?

Americans pay 43 cents in taxes out of the $3.70 they pay at the pump for a gallon of gasoline. A driver in the UK is paying $4 per gallon in taxes out of the $9 per gallon cost. Gasoline costs between $8 and $9 per gallon across Europe today. The extreme level of gas taxes certainly reduces car sizes, consumption and traffic. Too bad the mad socialists across Europe spent the taxes on expanding their welfare states and promising even more to their populations. Maybe a $6 per gallon tax will do the trick. Forcing Americans to drive less by doubling the gas tax is a quaint idea, but it is too late in the game. Europe is still made up of small towns and cities with the populations still fairly consolidated. Biking, walking and small rail travel is easy and feasible. The sprawling suburban enclaves that proliferate across the American countryside, dotted by thousands of malls and McMansion communities, accessible only by automobiles, make it impossible to implement a rational energy efficient model for moving forward. We cannot reverse 60 years of irrationality. Even without higher gas taxes, the price of gasoline will move relentlessly higher due to the stealth tax of currency debasement.


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: One Death is a Tragedy, One Million is a Statistic

Another day of statistics, where the headlines are widely published, some details are somewhat explored, and in-depth analysis is next to nil...


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