Auto Sales

Frontrunning: April 4

  • Europe stocks rise but bond yield falls show investor caution (Reuters)
  • Danger of Sell-Off in U.S. Stocks Grows as Auto Sales Disappoint (BBG)
  • Battle Over Gorsuch Confirmation Is Set to Hit Senate Floor (WSJ)
  • U.S. business seeks action, not trade war, in Xi-Trump summit (Reuters)
  • Uncovering the Secret History of Wall Street’s Largest Oil Trade (BBG)

Futures Slide As Weak Start To Q2 Continues Amid Global Growth, Political Jitters

Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks, S&P futures fall and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks.

The Auto Industry Is About To Drive Off A Cliff, Again

We knew cheap money would be too much for auto executives to refuse and oversupply was a sure bet! So will be the industry's return to the Washington "substance abuse center".  Expect the industry to be back at the government feeding trough asking for help.

"A Lot Of News Over The Last 72 Hours But None Having A Dramatic Effect On Trading"

Markets seem more concerned about missing the upside associated w/a final tax deal than they are about being caught long on a tax disappointment, thus for the time being headlines such as “Trump and Ryan discuss taxes” or “tax plan makes progress in Washington” will help to buoy stocks more than “Trump has neither a clear WH tax plan nor adequate staff yet to see through a planned tax reform” will hurt them.

Are Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?

Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.

4 Factors Driving Oil Prices This Summer

Uncertainty is dominating today’s oil markets, with production cuts, ballooning inventories and a rising rig count all adding to oil price volatility. And as the summer driving season approaches and oil companies return to their projects here are four key factors to watch closely.

The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.

What The Hell Is Going On?

"The dissonance between what I have been observing and what is being flogged by the establishment mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media has never been greater. I’m 53 years old. The older I get the less sure I am about things I was sure about when I was 25 years old... I find it exhausting. We’re lost in a blizzard of lies."