• Sprott Money
    05/06/2016 - 06:03
    The US, in its own decline, is showing this same self-destructive tendency. The worse things get, the greater the inclination of the citizenry to say, “Carry on, everything’s fine.”

Auto Sales

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Here's Why Automaker Stocks Are Falling (Despite The Media's Exuberance)





How can it be that automaker stock prices are tumbling given that auto sales (if one listens to CNBC) are surging, that (if one listens to the CEOs) everything is awesome for automakers, and (if one listens to Phil LeBeau) there is no bubble in auto credit? The answer is simple... (you just don't want to admit it)

 
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Auto Sales Are About To Choke: Increase In Non-Revolving Credit Is Smallest In 4 Years





After rising by $15.5 billion in the month before, and a near-record $22 billion in September, the November increase in nonrevolving credit was a paltry $8.3 billion - this was the smallest monthly increase in this most important for US car makers data, since February of 2012!

 
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The Last Time Automakers Channel-Stuffed This Much, Lehman and GM Went Bankrupt





Don't show Phil LeBeau this chart!

 
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Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11





Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.

 
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US Auto Sales Plunge To 6-Month Lows - Biggest Miss Since Nov 2008





Despite the blustering propaganda from CNBC's Phil LeBeau, it appears the Auto-sales (and massive inventory build) party is over in America. December US domestic auto sales SAAR printed 13.46 mm - the lowest in 6 months (missing expectations of 14.15mm by the most since November 2008). With non-revolving credit growth slowing in December, and inventories at record highs, the wheels just fell off the credit-fueled auto 'recovery'.

 
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Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders





After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

 
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Byron Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting 15% Rise In 2015





"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."

 
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More Ominous Charts For 2016





If 2015 was the year in which no investment strategy worked, 2016 is looking like the year in which all economic policies fail.

 
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Another Bubble Pops: Used Boeing 777 Sells For 97% Off List Price





Ten days ago, Delta CEO Richard Anderson sent shockwaves through the aviation industry when he announced he had just purchased a used Boeing 777 for the paltry price of $7.7 million. Here is the punchline: Boeing’s list price for a new 777-200ER is $277.3 million, meaning Delta is buying a used 777 at a price 97.2% lower than the value of a new 777.

 
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"Core" Durables Goods Orders Plunge For 10th Consecutive Month As Defense Spending Soars Most In 8 Years





If it wasn't for America's war machine, the economy would be deep in recession. Defense spending (aircraft and parts) soared 148% in the last 3 months - biggest such rise since 2007 managing to squeeze Durable Goods Orders overall to unchanged in Nov (vs -0.6% exp). That's the good news. Everywhere else you look bad. Core Capex fell 1.93% YoY - the 10th consecutive YoY drop - something not seen before outside of recession.

 
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The Recession And Bear Market Of 2016, In Two Charts





Janet, where is your accelerating economy?

 
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The Great Disconnect Is Palpable





Taken together with the rather steep drop in US industrial production, the risks of a full-blown and perhaps severe recession have undoubtedly grown. Unlike what the FOMC is trying to project via the federal funds rate, a rate that isn’t being fully complemented, either, at this point, visible economic risk is not just rising it is exploding.

 
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People Are Finally Worried About People Being Worried





We won't be shocked if the Fed actually follows through and hikes rates this week. If they put off hiking every time the market has a little hissy fit, they’ll never get off zero. On the other hand, the stress in markets right now is real and growing. Raising interest rates doesn’t seem likely to improve those conditions. With a riot in the junk bond market, a complete lack of inflation and an already weakening economy, we won't be shocked if they pass either. For the first time in years, it appears people are actually worried about people being worried.

 
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Crushing The Auto-Makers' Dreams (In 2 Depressing Charts)





Earlier this morning we got another glimpse of reality behind the smoke-and-mirrors, mainstream-media-sponsored last-pillar-standing lovefest that is US auto sales when the business sales data showed a disheartening tumble in sales in October. So where are all the sales going that automakers report? The answer is simple... (and painful).

 
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Retail Sales Growth Tumbles To Weakest In 6 Years As Auto Sales Drop





Despite all the industry's exuberance over auto sales in America, the government's retail sales data shows vehicle sales dropped 0.4% in October (in other words, automakers are channel-stuffing). This rolled through the various headline data leaving a 4th miss in a row MoM and the weakest YoY growth for retail sales since Nov 2009 - deep in recession territory.

 
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