Auto Sales

No, Ben S. Bernanke will be someday remembered as the world’s most destructive battleship admiral. Not only was he fighting the last war, but his whole multi-trillion money printing campaign after September 15, 2008 was aimed at avoiding an historical Fed mistake that had never even happened!

With the second half of 2015 "grim" for Chinese auto sales, US automakers - who have field-of-dreams-like built inventories to record levels - have turned domestic for growth by extending credit for decades to anyone who can fog a mirror. That was all well and good until we discover this morning that the government's consumer confidence survey shows Americans auto-buying attitude is the lowest since Jan 2013. Automakers have two options, offer buy-one-get-one-free to all new Syrian refugees or cut production dramatically in hopes of easing inventory excess. Good luck.

In our Chinese stock market wrap following Friday's unexpected rate cut, which saw the Shanghai Composite storm out of the gate, we said that "we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs." Sure enough, with just minutes to go before the close, the SHCOMP wiped out all its daily gains and was set for a red close had it not been for the "national team" miraculous last minute intervention which was inevitable after Friday's PBOC rate cut, and which lifted the composite 0.5% into the green as the euphoria was rapidly evaporating.

Two recent surveys, along with numerous other studies and data, reveal most American households to be living on the brink of catastrophe, but continuing to act in a reckless and delusionary manner. Telling people the truth today is meaningless, as they don’t want their illusions destroyed. But destroyed they will be, when this teetering edifice of debt comes crashing down on their heads.

The fact of the matter is that year over year retail sales at these levels only happen during recessions. It’s really that simple. Without the crutch of subprime auto loans and student loan debt being spent by pretend University of Phoenix students on iGadgets, fitbits, hookers and blow, this economy would already be in free fall. Look no further than what happened to Wal-Mart today for confirmation we are in the midst of a worldwide recession, if not depression. The only people who refuse to acknowledge recession reality are the Wall Street hucksters, looking to fleece a few more muppets before their party is over. Propaganda and lies can’t stop this recession.

As Rousseff fights to keep the Presidency, and has the speaker of the House battles to have her impeached, the country's economy continues to crumble. Retail sales came in below expectations for August and as Bloomberg reports, Brazil's top bankers now fear the combination of overindebted households and soaring unemployment could spell doom.

Correction continues, but it is only a correction.

The reaction function of officials takes on added importance in the week ahead.

“We got a catered meal of hot dogs and hamburgers as our thanks while others, I’m sure, got big bonuses."

The global silver-coin market is in the grips of an unprecedented supply squeeze, forcing some mints to ration sales and step up overtime, sending U.S. buyers abroad to fulfill a sudden surge in demand.

• U.S., Allies Demand Russia Stop Attacks on Syria Opposition (BBG)
• Russian Airstrikes Defend Strategic Assad Regime Stronghold on Syria’s Coast (WSJ)
• Emerging Stocks Head for Weekly Advance Before U.S. Jobs Data (BBG)
• Wage Strife Clouds Car-Sales Boom (WSJ)
• Oregon town reels from classroom carnage (Reuters)
• Oregon shooter came from California, described as shy and skittish (Reuters)

News That Matters

The divergence theme is likely to strengthen in the week ahead.  

Some people will never learn... ever. What is happening today is nothing more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The iceberg has been struck, we’re taking on water, and this sucker is going to sink. Game Over.

The outlook for diesel looks grim after U.S. regulators found that the world’s second biggest car manufacturer cheated on its emission tests. Now that diesel is not as clean as it appeared (with stricter emissions tests and perhaps even stricter regulation to be expected), one has to ask; does this mean the end of diesel for light vehicles? This is not just alarming for the automotive industry, but could also lead to a structural demand shift in fuel products. That shift could not have come at a worse time for diesel.