Auto Sales

Jamie Dimon Warns "Someone Will Get Hurt In Auto Lending" As Citi Sees No Rebound From Abysmal First Quarter

Jamie Dimon said the market for U.S. automobile lending is “a little stressed” and that he foresees higher losses ahead for some competitors. “Someone will get hurt in auto lending,” but not JPMorgan, Dimon said. Meanwhile, CEO Citigroup Mike Corbat indicated that the company's second-quarter net income will be roughly 25% lower than the same period a year earlier, roughly the same as the abysmal first quarter.

How The "Rest" Of America Lives: Wanting For Work, Buried In Debt

The flyover zones of America are wanting for work and buried in debt. That’s the legacy of three decades of Washington/Wall Street Bubble Finance. The latter has exported jobs, crushed the purchasing power of main street wages and showered the bicoastal elites with the windfalls of financialization. In short, Wall Street loves financial repression because it inflates financial asset values and fuels debt-funded gambling in the casinos. But it’s the opposite of what’s needed in flyover America.

GM, Ford US Auto Sales Tumble In "Bellwether" Month Of May

You can't say we weren't warned. As reported over a month ago, before the surprising rebound in April retail sales, the biggest drag on consumer spending was auto sales.  One month later, this is finally starting to materialize when earlier today, both GM and Ford's US vehicle sales fell more than analysts had estimated in May. According to Bloomberg this "raises questions about stalling consumer demand." Not really: as we also warned a month ago when looking at stalling use car price changes, it was only a matter of time before the lack of demand for every low priced autos spilled over to new car sales, which it now has.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

3 Things: Auto Angst, Valuation Vulnerabilities, & Delusional Decouplings

Yes, the “bull market” is currently alive and well. However, there are mounting signs that a “cancer” has taken hold and will eventually reveal itself in the not so distant future. Unfortunately, for most investors, the inevitable outcome of chasing yield with a complete disregard of the underlying risk will be catastrophic.

What Rate Hike: Only 4 Regional Feds Support Discount Rate Increase Compared To 9 Back In November

While 4 is more than 2, recall that on November 24, one month before the Fed did hike rates by 25 bps, a whopping 9 regional Fed requested a Discount Rate hike: that took place less than a month before the Fed's first rate hike in nearly a decade. With only four regional Feds on the same page as of this moment, it is very unlikely that June is when the Fed's rate hike will take place, and with July missing a press conference, it remains to be seen just how the Fed can proceeds with the much touted rate hike in the coming 2 months.

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47

The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, and following Friday's disappointing new credit loan data, would sell off as the Chinese slowdown once again becomes a dominant concern. However, after some initial weakness, the risks were all but gone when first the USDJPY jumped on another round of deflationary Japanese economic data which led to renewed hopes of more BOJ easing and a jump in the USDJPY and thus US futures.

Another Headline Head Fake - The Consumer Can't Save The U.S. Economy

At the end of the day, the seasonally maladjusted data for April retail sales amounts to no more than a swiggle in the larger trend. To wit, consumption spending financed by the growth of transfer payments and household borrowing is coming up hard against Peak Debt, while tepid growth in wage and salary income remains hostage to a domestic economy plagued with structural barriers to growth, an aging business cycle and a gathering global recession from which it is not remotely decoupled. So contrary to Reuters and its Keynesian quote standbys, it is not true that “the demise of the U.S. consumer have been greatly exaggerated”. Actually, it can be hardly exaggerated enough.

April Retail Sales Soar Most In 13 Months Despite Retailers Slashing Guidance In May

Following March's plunge in retail sales (dragging YoY to just +1.6% - recessionary territory) as Auto sales tumbled, April retail sales printed a large 1.3% surge (versus expectations of a 0.8% rise). This is the 3rd biggest MoM rise since 2010, which is odd given the utter collapse in retailers earnings and most crucially outlooks! Soaring gas prices helped but auto sales rebounded as did Amazon non-store retailers.

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

Wholesale Inventories-Sales Ratio Holds Near Record Highs As Automakers Suffer

While wholesale sales rose modestly MoM, the continued stagnation in wholesale inventories (lowest since 2010) bodes poorly for Q2 GDP. At 1.36x, the wholesale inventories-to-sales remains near record highs, but Automotive inventories to sales soared to cycle highs at 1.83x (as Auto sales dropped 0.7% MoM but inventories rose 1.0% MoM).

Global Stocks Jump; Oil Rises As Yen Plunges After Another Japanese FX Intervention Threat

In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.

Key U.S. Events In The Coming Week

In the traditional post payrolls data lull, we’re kicking off what’s set to be a much quieter week for data this week with nothing of note due to be released in the US on Monday, however the week picks up with notable economic dataon NFIB small business cofidence, Import prices, PPI and culminates with Friday's retail sales report, UMichigan sentiment and business inventories.