Auto Sales

Another Bubble Pops: Used Boeing 777 Sells For 97% Off List Price

Ten days ago, Delta CEO Richard Anderson sent shockwaves through the aviation industry when he announced he had just purchased a used Boeing 777 for the paltry price of $7.7 million. Here is the punchline: Boeing’s list price for a new 777-200ER is $277.3 million, meaning Delta is buying a used 777 at a price 97.2% lower than the value of a new 777.

"Core" Durables Goods Orders Plunge For 10th Consecutive Month As Defense Spending Soars Most In 8 Years

If it wasn't for America's war machine, the economy would be deep in recession. Defense spending (aircraft and parts) soared 148% in the last 3 months - biggest such rise since 2007 managing to squeeze Durable Goods Orders overall to unchanged in Nov (vs -0.6% exp). That's the good news. Everywhere else you look bad. Core Capex fell 1.93% YoY - the 10th consecutive YoY drop - something not seen before outside of recession.

The Great Disconnect Is Palpable

Taken together with the rather steep drop in US industrial production, the risks of a full-blown and perhaps severe recession have undoubtedly grown. Unlike what the FOMC is trying to project via the federal funds rate, a rate that isn’t being fully complemented, either, at this point, visible economic risk is not just rising it is exploding.

People Are Finally Worried About People Being Worried

We won't be shocked if the Fed actually follows through and hikes rates this week. If they put off hiking every time the market has a little hissy fit, they’ll never get off zero. On the other hand, the stress in markets right now is real and growing. Raising interest rates doesn’t seem likely to improve those conditions. With a riot in the junk bond market, a complete lack of inflation and an already weakening economy, we won't be shocked if they pass either. For the first time in years, it appears people are actually worried about people being worried.

Retail Sales Growth Tumbles To Weakest In 6 Years As Auto Sales Drop

Despite all the industry's exuberance over auto sales in America, the government's retail sales data shows vehicle sales dropped 0.4% in October (in other words, automakers are channel-stuffing). This rolled through the various headline data leaving a 4th miss in a row MoM and the weakest YoY growth for retail sales since Nov 2009 - deep in recession territory.

Why To Fred Hickey These Are The "Last Gasps Of A Dying Bull Market (And Economy)"

"Deteriorating market breadth and herding into an ever-narrower number of stocks is classic market top behavior. Currently, there are many other warning signs that are also being ignored. The merger mania, the stock buyback frenzy, the year-over-year declines in corporate sales and falling earnings for the entire S&P 500 index, the plunges this year in the high-yield and leveraged loan markets, the topping and rolling over of the massive (record) level of stock margin debt... and I could go on."

Janet Yellen Explains To Congress How Devoted She Is To Americans' Interests - Live Feed

Having yesterday explained how The Fed is "devoted" to Americans' interests and how "excited" she is to raise rates, Janet Yellen is set to face the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today... to explain to them how - in her mind - everything is awesome enough to hike rates, despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (light vehicle incentives up 14% YoY). Following the renewed volatility in markets, thanks to Draghi, the question is will Yellen be a little more hawkish given the room the ECB has given her?

Janet Yellen Explains Why The Fed Will Raise Rates Amid A Revenue, Profit & Manufacturing Recession - Live Feed

Janet Yellen is set to begin the first part of her two-day excuse-fest for why The Fed will raise rates (market implied odds at 74%) in December despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (yes, read the facts here). Few expect her to rock the boat to change the market's perception, especially following Lockhart's confirmation that The Fed's job mandate has been met.

ADP Employment Rises, Beats By Most In 2015, Fed Confirms Job Mandate Has Been Met

From "pumping out lots of jobs" in September to "not slowing meaningfully" in October, and despite consistent job losses in manufacturing (which is odd because auto sales are so awesome, right?), ADP reports November a jump to 217k (against expectations of 190k and October's 182k). ADP has missed expectations 8 months so far in 2015, but November's beat is the biggest since 2014 which one could argue was just catch up from ADP's big miss relative to BLS data (182 ADP with an upward revision to 196K now, vs 271k BLS). Of course, none of this "data" matters apparently as Fed's Lockhart said just this morning that the Fed's "criterion of job market improvement has been met."

Despite LeBeau-gasms, Domestic Vehicle Sales Slide For 2nd Month In A Row, Miss By Most In 5 Months

Well this is a little awkward. After a day of exuberant unsubstantiated auto sales proclamations that a) it's not all subprime, b) 8-year credit terms do not pull forward demand, and c) it's totally sustainable; anyone could have been forgiven for being excited about the total vehicle sales of 18.12mm (according to Wards' data), just above expectations of 18.10mm and flat from October. However, Wards reported just 14.03mm domestic vehicles sold (missing expectations by the most since June) and dropping for the 2nd month in a row. Those darned facts do get in the way eh?