Everything is so wonderful that a rate hike would equate to saying the Fed has won. Seven years of ZIRP and a few selling periods when the Fed stopped POMO’s and QE injections, we can easily say with extreme confidence that the Fed won. And by won we mean didn’t ruin the system entirely. Except they did.
Liar loans are back from the dead which means that if you look under the hood, you might just have a shoddy credit or two hiding in the collateral pool of your triple-A mortgage-backed paper. Meanwhile, in a further sign that we've learned nothing since the crisis, non-Agency RMBS is set to stage a comeback.
News That Matters
A non-bombastic discussion of market forces and what to expect next
What happens when we roll back into the next official recession, unemployment soars, and consumers really stop spending? What is revealed when you look under the hood of this economic recovery is that it is a complete and utter fraud. The recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors, buoyed by subprime auto debt, really subprime student loan debt, corporate stock buybacks, and Fed financed bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds. The four retailers listed below are nothing but zombies, kept alive by the Fed’s ZIRP and QE, as they stumble towards their ultimate deaths. The coming recession will be the knife through their skulls, putting them out of their misery.
"Losses on car loans taken out by bad-credit borrowers are continuing to climb. What's driving the rise? Nomura has an idea."
Chinese Devaluation Extends To 3rd Day - Yuan Hits 4 Year Low, Japan Escalates Currency Race-To-The-Bottom RhetoricSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/12/2015 23:23 -0400
The "one-off" adjustment has now reached its 3rd day as The PBOC has now devalued the Yuan fix by 4.65% back to July 2011 lows.
PBOC tries to reassure: *CHINA PBOC SAYS YUAN REMAINS STRONG CURRENCY IN LONG-TERM
RANsquawk Week Ahead - 10th August 2015: US data is set to remain in focus as participants look ahead to the possibility of a Sep Fed rate lift-offSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/10/2015 06:26 -0400
· US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off
· Key data out of the Eurozone this week includes Q2 GDP as well as German ZEW
"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains EverythingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/09/2015 19:00 -0400
"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."
Here is an overview of next week's events and data placed in the larger context.
The demise of the dollar has been greatly exaggerated. Here is how I see the near-term outlook.
Yesterday afternoon's meltup short-squeeze in China - after regulators announced their latest restrictions on short-selling - has stalled in the early trading tonight following The IMF's decision to delay inclusion of Yuan in the SDR pending a review in September 2016. Though this will be a disappointment to the Chinese, the door is still open though given waringse from BMW and Toyota over "normalizing" auto sales, the market problems may be morphing quickly into economic problems.
"Fleet deliveries in July were down 20 percent year over year, as the company continues to execute its plan to reduce sales to rental customers and grow commercial and government deliveries. Government sales were up 38 percent, with deliveries to state and local governments up 59 percent."
A non-bombastic analysis of the events and data in the week ahead, with insulting anyone or resorting to conspiracy theories.
Gold "Flash-Crashes" Again Amid Continued Commodity Liquidation As China Manufacturing Slumps To 15-Month LowsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2015 22:00 -0400
As Bridgewater talks back its now widely discussed bearish position on fallout from China's equity market collapse, Chinese stocks rose at the open (before fading after ugly manufacturing data). However, liquidations continue across the commodity complex in copper, gold, and silver. Though not on the scale to Sunday night's collapse, the China open brought another 'flash-crash' in precious metals. All signs point to CCFD unwinds, and forced liquidations as under the surface something smells rotten in China, which has just been confirmed by the lowest Manufacturing PMI print in 15 months.