Corporate Finance

9 Lessons From The Reagan Tax Cuts

A close look at the ’86 tax reform shows why tax reform may not get done this year. As BofAML's Ethan Harris notes, "we are skeptical." Significant tax reform creates winners and losers, which may make it hard to find a "coalition of the willing."

New York Times Will Vacate 8 Floors In Its HQ To Generate "Significant Rental Revenue"

Remember when The NYT reported that its ad hoc campaign to boost revenue by selling subscriptions in response to the vicious back and forth with Donald Trump, was said to be a smashing success? It appears it was not smashing enough, and according to a just released note, the newspaper will vacate at least eight floors in its iconic building, allowing it to "generate significant rental income."

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47

The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, and following Friday's disappointing new credit loan data, would sell off as the Chinese slowdown once again becomes a dominant concern. However, after some initial weakness, the risks were all but gone when first the USDJPY jumped on another round of deflationary Japanese economic data which led to renewed hopes of more BOJ easing and a jump in the USDJPY and thus US futures.

China Sees First Offshore Default By State-Owned Firm In Two Decades

A Hong Kong unit of Guosen Securities is in technical default on a dim sum bond issued in 2014, marking the first offshore default by a Chinese SOE since the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment in 1999. The subsidiary says reports that it has violated a keepweel with its parent are "exaggerated."

Morons At The Precipice

Seven years of zero rates, massive monetary inflation and incessant market backstopping have desensitized and anesthetized. Rational thought ultimately succumbed to "perpetual money machine" quackery. And now all of this greatly increases vulnerability to destabilizing market dislocations, as senses are restored and nerves awakened. "A lot of this looks like late 2007 or early 2008," warns one manager, but today, market mispricing is systemic and global – virtually all securities classes at home and abroad.

Deutsche Bank Warns Bonuses Will Be Slashed As Much As 30%

A beleaguered Deutsche Bank is set to slash the investment bank bonus pool by some $566 million as John Cyran's effort to right a sinking ship continues. As Bloomberg reports, "no decision has been taken and the biggest reductions are likely to impact employees in the fixed-income business. Some managing directors may have their entire bonus scrapped, according to the person."

Frontrunning: October 19

  • Great News: China’s GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Stimulus Supports Spending (BBG)
  • Oh wait, maybe not: China GDP: Deflategate Comes to Beijing (WSJ)
  • Actually, definitely not: Shanghai rebar falls to record low after weak China GDP (Reuters)
  • But who cares: European Shares Gain on Earnings as Bonds Drop, Metals Decline (BBG)

Scandal-Plagued Deutsche Bank Terminates Head Of I-Banking As Part Of Sweeping Restructuring

Moments ago, Europe's largest bank by assets and by gross notional derivatives, announced a raft of high-level management changes as part of an anticipated and sweeping restructuring of key divisions and senior-level committees. As WSJ reports, Colin Fan, the investment-banking co-head responsible for securities trading, will resign effective Monday. But the most profound change is that Deutsche Bank will split its investment bank into two pieces: one, focused on mergers and other deals, corporate finance and transaction banking services such as cash management, and the other on trading and global markets.

The New World Financial Disorder

The global Bubble is bursting – hence financial conditions are tightening. Bubbles never provide a convenient time to tighten monetary policy. Best practices would require central bankers to tighten early before Bubble Dynamics take firm hold. Central bankers instead nurture and accommodate Bubble excess. It ensures a policy dead end -  the faltering global Bubble has progressed beyond the point where Fed rate policy has much impact.

Lying CEOs Crash Their Stocks (So Will The Fed)

CEOs are not the most trustworthy figures in society. They will lay off thousands of employees to beat analysts' estimates, and yet they have no trouble looting the stock to pay themselves millions while the company loses money. However, one theme that keeps coming up is that unethical behavior has a price tag. With this in mind, consider the implications when the New York Fed tells us that economic activity declined because of the weather. Now that it's summer, it's not clear how cold weather is interfering. Perhaps the Fed has a South Pole subsidiary? When will the market crash and the Fed be replaced for lying about poor performance?