The summer, thankfully, has been largely bereft of the dismal trend of bankers committing suicide, but as Bloomberg reports, Thierry Leyne, a French-Israeli banker and partner of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the disgraced former chief of the IMF, was found dead Thursday after apparently taking his own life by jumping off the 23rd floor of one of the Yoo towers, a prestigious residential complex in Tel Aviv. This is the 16th financial services executive death this year.
Mega-startups go parabolic. Flame-out already happening.
- Turkey says Syria town about to fall as Islamic State advances (Reuters)
- Only now? Growth worries grip stocks, oil (Reuters)
- Hong Kong Protest Leaders ‘Furious’ at Agenda for Talks (BBG)
- Earthquake Damages Thousands of Homes in Southern China (BBG)
- Keystone Be Darned: Canada Finds Oil Route Around Obama (BBG)
- Where Is North Korea's 31-Year-Old Leader? (BusinessWeek)
- Australia to Revise Employment Data (WSJ)
- Americans Living Longer as Fewer Die From Heart Disease, Cancer (BBG)
- A 401(k) Conundrum: Can You Make Cash Pile Last for Life? (BBG)
- China Services Sector Slows in September (WSJ)
- Liberian Rubber Farm Becomes Sanctuary Against Ebola (WSJ)
- The World’s Most Powerful Central Banker: Janet Who? (BBG)
- Islamic State moves into south west of Syrian Kurdish town (Reuters)
- Waldorf to Be Biggest Chinese Property Purchase in U.S. (BBG)
- Spain Seeks People in Contact With Ebola-Infected Nurse (BBG)
- Hong Kong protests at crossroads as traffic, frustration pile up (Reuters)
- Immigration: Grim Caseload at the Border (WSJ)
- China Cuts Thousands of ‘Phantom’ Workers From State Payroll (BBG)
- U.S., U.K. Regulators Push to Settle Deutsche Bank Libor Case This Year (WSJ)
- Wall Street Moles Go to NY’s Top Cop, Spurning SEC Cash (BBG)
- Pimco's outflow headaches only just beginning (Reuters)
- Japan Lawmakers Flag Need for Exit Strategy as Yen Falls (BBG)
- Ebola Patient Fights for Life as Contacts are Monitored (BBG)
- GPIF Unlikely To Announce New Portfolio Until November: Delay Could Rattle Investors Hoping Fund Will Invest More in Stocks (WSJ)
- High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate (Reuters)
- Neves to Face Rousseff in Brazil in Surprise Comeback (BBG)
- Hong Kong democracy protests fade, face test of stamina (Reuters); A Hong Kong Protest Run on Fumes and Instant Noodles (WSJ)
- Putin Clans Said Gridlocked Over Arrest as Sanctions Bite (BBG)
- Surging dollar may be triple whammy for U.S. earnings (Reuters)
- Lloyds Said to Cut Thousands of Jobs as CEO Cuts Costs (BBG)
- As we warned in May 2013... Gross Exposes $42 Trillion Bond Market’s Key Flaw in Exit (BBG).... hint: no liquidity
- WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months (BBG)
- Traders Thank Fed for Once-in-Decade Surge in Profit (BBG)
- Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report (Reuters)
- Philippine Islamist militants threaten to behead German on October 17 (Reuters)
- Draghi’s Buying Spree for the ECB Might Start Modestly (BBG)
- Russian Officials Say No Plans for Capital Controls (WSJ)
- Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S. (NYT)
- Leader of Mexican drugs cartel captured (FT)
- Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on way to hospital (Reuters)
We have now done the math and compiled the Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 and we can indeed confirm that (at least in the second quarter) the buyback part is not only over but has ended with a thud, with the total notional amount of buybacks completed in Q2 plunging by 27% in Q2 to "only" $117 billion - the lowest since Q1 of 2013!
With the Federal Reserve ending their support of the markets by October, and as discussed yesterday, corporate share buybacks on the decline; two of the biggest supports of asset prices over the last couple of years is fading. What does this mean for investors going forward?
"two landmark firsts have occurred only recently, with the S&P500 breaking above 2,000 and the 10y bund yield breaking below 1%. Our Ice Age thesis has long called for sub-1% bond yields and I see this extending to the US and UK in due course. It is the equity markets where I have been consistently surprised. QE has been an essential driver for the equity market, providing the fuel for the heavy corporate bond issuance being used for share buybacks. Companies themselves have been the only substantive buyers of equity, but the most recent data suggests that this party is over and as profits also stall out, the equity market is now running on fumes." - Albert Edwards
"Excess credit creation is at the heart of much of China’s GDP growth, and why this means that China must choose between a sharp slowdown in GDP growth as credit is constrained, or a continued unsustainable increase in debt. The key point is that we cannot simply put the bad debt behind us once the economy is “reformed” and project growth as if nothing happened. Earlier losses are still unrecognized and hidden in the country’s various balance sheets."
Here are the most notable news updates from overnight events in Iraq.
What is really going on in Iraq?
The relationship between high-yield credit spreads (the 'cost' of protecting the most equity-like of the credit-risky bond spectrum) and VIX (the 'cost' of protecting equities) tend to have a very stable and consistently correlated relationship driven by clear arbitrages between the two asset classes and corporate finance causation. Last July, VIX futures plunged while credit spreads remained less impressed... that ended badly for the penny-in-front-of-the-steamroller crowd who saw VIX spike back to credit's reality. May 2014 - as the chart below shows - is exhibiting the same kind of disconnect and VIX traders and credit market participants are concerned.
Nearly all of us……well, all except our benevolent dictators, appear to be permanently caught in the first four stages of the Kubler-Ross black hole of loss and grief........
- Ukraine forces kill up to five rebels, Putin warns of consequences (Reuters)
- Obama to Russia: More sanctions are 'teed up' (AP)
- Vienna Banks Bemoan Russia Sanctions Testing Cold War Neutrality (BBG)
- GE’s $57 Billion Cash Overseas Said to Fuel Alstom Deal (BBG)
- GM posts lower first-quarter profit after recall costs (Reuters)
- Apple Stock Split Removes Obstacle to Inclusion in Dow (BBG)
- U.S. regulators to propose new net neutrality rules in May (Reuters)