With the return of Federal Reserve Chair(wo)man odds at PaddyPower (leaving Summers a dreary 28% likelihood of winning) comes the Irish bettors' latest gamble... when will the US Fed initiate Tapering of QE? Based on the month during which the first reduction of QE bond-buying from the current $85bn per month, it seems (unlike the majority of prognosticators and standing blithely in the face of technical, political, and deficit reasons) that tapering will not begin until December at earliest with most believing 2014-or-later...
On the day when the 76.02-carat 'Archduke Joseph Diamond' sells for a record $21.5 million, we thought it intriguing how even these incredible high-end status symbols are seeing prices collapsing at the low-end...of the high-end. It seems the 'wealthy' just can't afford 1-carat diamonds anymore as the price has plunged by over 25% in the last 15 months. Perhaps it is only the 1% of the 1% that can now afford their baubles as like everywhere, there is a growing divide between the 'haves' and the 'have-mores' (in this case). Coincidentally, heading into the stock market slide of 2008, we saw Diamond prices plunge and Gold prices rise - but we are sure it's different this time...
Global economic fundamentals are awful, bearish divergences are occurring everywhere, investor sentiment is nearing bullish extremes, political risks remain high and last week's market performance can be summed up in four words - 'lack of follow through'. As Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg explains, more than two-thirds of the rally points the stock market has enjoyed since the summer-time lows occurred around central bank policy announcements. So the market is really a one-trick pony here, breathing in the fumes of central bank liquidity. What was supposed to happen, as the elites told us, was that the lagging hedge funds were going to throw in the towel and chase this market. Everyone expects this to be a major source of buying power. At the same time, what if the bulls who lucked out this year because they hung onto Ben Bernanke's arm decide to take profits or at the least lock in their gains? CRitically, as Rosie details, QE3 is occurring at a different point in the cycle this time and insomuch as it helps invogorate already rising 'animal spirits' we suspect it has missed the baot.
Why do Banks remain such lousy investments?
- Is the revenue model fundamentally broken?
- Is the capital model fundamentally broken?
- Is the risk model fundamentally broken?
- Is the compensation model fundamentally broken?
- None of the above?
- All of the above?
Do I REALLY have to give you the answers to these questions?
The 8:30 EDT press conference is due to start any minute. The key questions which Trichet will not answer this time around are i) whether the ECB will reactivate its secondary bond buying program or maybe even expand it and ii) why the ECB continues to sacrifice the peripheral countries courtesy of high rates just to keep so called "transitory" inflation in check. The rest will be anger-inducing mumbling and bureaucrat rhetoric.
Here are some of the first sell-side and media perspectives on the abysmal Q2 GDP. And of course, nobody could have foreseen this huge collapse in the US economy. Nobody.
Stocks ended higher for the third consecutive week as protests throughout the Middle East continue to spread like misinformation during a political campaign or
While it is fun to blame Cramer for all the problems, and worst stock calls in the world, we certainly would not want to leave his co-enablers out in the dark. Behold the four sell-side research "advisories" who have just confirmed that the only thing they know is to look for momentum stocks, goalseek their models, and do absolutely no diligence. We urge readers to completely ignore what the 4 analysts behind the below recommendations propose as target prices for their coverage universe going forward, and to actively do the opposite of what their stock advice is.
The August jobs report provided a ray of hope, but much more needs to be done to repair the devastation caused by the financial crisis.
In his testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out the possibility that deflation risks could revive. Is he worried about what's going on in Japan right now? Or maybe he's worried about what Bob Prechter is calling the biggest bubble in history...
Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. recently appeared on Tech Ticker claiming "it's dangerous to short this market".
For clues on inflation expectations in this carry-trade-crazed market, Tuesday’s auction of some $25 billion in 10-year treasury notes is something to pay attention to.