Word Cloud Of Trichet's Disappointing Jackson Hole Speech: "Inflation" Mentions: 10; "Deflation" And "Gold": ZeroSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2011 15:07 -0400
The 8:30 EDT press conference is due to start any minute. The key questions which Trichet will not answer this time around are i) whether the ECB will reactivate its secondary bond buying program or maybe even expand it and ii) why the ECB continues to sacrifice the peripheral countries courtesy of high rates just to keep so called "transitory" inflation in check. The rest will be anger-inducing mumbling and bureaucrat rhetoric.
Those who wonder what JC Trichet has to say about the future of ECB monetary policy can do so below. So far the euro is not happy, in line with expectations that future rate hikes now appear very much in doubt.
Trichet: Debt Crisis Is Flashing “Red” - Marc Faber Continues To Like Gold And Silver And AccumulatingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2011 07:16 -0400
The European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet, was not as optimistic as he usually is, when he raised the alarm level on the debt crisis to “red” late yesterday. After the meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt, Trichet who chairs the ESRB, said that risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are rising and flashing “red”. He said “on a personal basis I would say yes, it is red”. Trichet warned market participants that the crisis is nowhere close to be resolved. Trichet warned of “potential contagion effects across the union and beyond.” Overnight Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told Bloomberg this morning (see interview below) that he still favours gold and silver. He said there could be short term weakness but that he will keep accumulating gold. Faber warned against shorting the precious metals as they are likely to keep going up. He also warned regarding recent incidents of fraud and corruption by newly listed Chinese companies and said this was indicative a bubble. In his usual contrarian and witty manner, he said that “not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life.”
Trichet: "Strong Vigilance" Needed, ECB Raises 2011 Inflation Range From 2.0%-2.6% To 2.5% to 2.7%; July 1.50% Rate Hike ComingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2011 08:42 -0400
Soundbites from the Trichet conference:
- TRICHET: ECB SEES "UPWARD PRESSURE" ON EURO AREA INFLATION
- TRICHET: "STRONG VIGILANCE" NEEDED ON INFLATION RISKS; ECB WILL ACT IN FIRM AND TIMELY MANNER; ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY REMAINS "ELEVATED"
- SEES 2011 INFLATION AT 2.5% TO 2.7% VS PREV 2.0% TO 2.6% *TRICHET SAYS HIGHER INFLATION FORECASTS REFLECT ENERGY COSTS
- TRICHET: COMMODITY, ENERGY COSTS DRIVING PRICE PRESSURES; UNDERLYING PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION RECOVERING
- TRICHET: UNDERLYING PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION RECOVERING; MONETARY STANCE IS "ACCOMODATIVE"
- TRICEHT: GREECE NEEDING ABOUT EU45B OF NEW LOANS; GREECE WILL GET EU57B OF LOANS UNTAPPED FROM 2010; RAISE EU30B FROM ASSET SALES THRU '14
- TRICHET: ECB TO SECURE FIRM ANCHORING OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS; ECB "WILL DO ALL THAT IS NEEDED" ON INFLATION
- TRICHET: NON-STANDARD MEASURES ARE TEMPORARY
- TRICHET: ECB TO KEEP FIXED RATE ALLOTMENT TENDER FOR 3 MONTH LTRO OPERATIONS FOR Q3
- TRICHET: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT DAMPENED BY BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENT
The EURUSD chart looks like an EKG
Euro Jumps, Risk Is Bid, Following Strong Spanish Bond Auctions, Trichet Promises For EU Finance MinistrySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/02/2011 07:06 -0400
Risk is solidly bid this morning as the EURUSD has jumped to overnight highs of just under 1.45, and the DXY has just dropped to a one month low, following two Spanish bond auctions which saw yields surge yet came at far higher bids to cover than previously. From Reuters: "Spain saw strong demand for 3.95 billion euros ($5.67 billion) of medium-term bonds on Thursday, though a broad drop in risk appetite and lingering uncertainty over how talks on fresh aid for Greece will pan out kept yields high. In a litmus test of investor appetite for peripheral euro zone debt as policymakers thrash out a plan to avert a Greek default, the 2014 bond, with a 3.4 percent coupon, sold 2.75 billion euros at an average yield of 4.037 percent. That compared with 3.568 percent at the previous auction in April, while the bid to cover rate rose to 2.5 compared with 1.8. The 2015 bond, last issued in September of last year and with a coupon of 3 percent, sold 1.2 billion euros at an average yield of 4.230 percent, slightly lower than yields on the secondary market. The bond was 2.9 times subscribed after being 1.6 times subscribed at its last auction. "Since the (2014) launch early April, we've had an escalation on the peripheral side, so a firm selling since then, which is why (the yield) jumped so much," economist at 4Cast Jo Tomkins said. "You'll see plenty of buyers coming in at that level, especially since the Greek deal seems to be moving in a positive direction." Also adding to the risk appetite are statements from Trichet that in the longer term, he could suggest forming a finance ministry of the European Union, adding there is no crisis in the EUR. Lastly, he added that if aid programs fail, as a second stage he could consider deeper integration of economic policy, more central command of domestic policies. Of course they will: once all is plundered, the ECB will become the defacto "protector" of its colonies. And falling solidly into the trap is Greece where according to a government source the privatization plans may run faster than expected.
Euro Plunges On Dovish Trichet Comments, Says ECB Has Credibility Because Hiked First (What Does That Leave For The Chairsatan?)Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2011 08:41 -0400
- CPI rates likely to stay above 2% in coming months
- Risks on economy from Japan disaster
- Geopolitical tensions pose growth risks
- Paramount that rise in HICP inflation does not lead to second-round effects
- Risks to medium term inflation outlook are on upside
- Inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored
- Monetary analysis indicates underlying pace of monetary expansion picking up but moderate
- Confirm banks have continued to expand lending to private sector
- Governments need to achieve their fiscal consolidation targets in 2011
Most importantly: he says nothing about a June hike which was largely "priced in" by the Wall Street lemmingraty.
The ECB rate decision (unchanged) has come and gone, and now everyone is focusing on the follow up conference at 2:30 CET (in less than 40 minutes), at which Jean Claude is expected to announce whether he will continue at the current rate of tightening with a June rate hike, or, since the global economy is once again contracting, will declare all those who called his rate hike decision idiotic, correct, and proceed to keep liquidity flat, if not loosen once again.
Goldman's Natacha Valla has compiled this useful paraphrase of the Trichet press conference conference. In a surprising turn of events, the ECB head pulled a Greenspan and left many scratching their heads just what he means. We will take a quick stab at predicting the implications of today's rate hike: once the EFSF runs out of capital, or outright fails, the ECB will be back in loosening mode right fast.
EUR Surges After ECB Raises 2011 Inflation Outlook, Trichet Implies Only Unercapitalized Banks Prevent Rate Hike, May Raise Rates At Next MeetingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/03/2011 09:48 -0400
At least one central bank refuses to drink the Kool Aid: following today's announcement by the ECB which kept its interest rate as expected at 1%, JC Trichet is now making waves in the FX market after announcing, or rather not announcing, that "rates are appropriate" in his opening statement line, a traditional opener to the press conference that follows. Just as notable is that the ECB staff has now hiked the low-end of its inflation expectations for 2011 by about 40%, from a range of 1.3% -2.3% to 2.0%-2.6%, and 2012 from 0.7%-2.3% to 1%-2.4%. Trichet also adds that now very strong vigilance is now warranted and it is paramount to avoid second round effects. Most troubling is Trichet's admission that the latest staff forecasts exclude the impact of the most recent oil jump. And while it is very clear that Trichet is dying to hike rates, the reason he won't is, that's right, Europe's insolvent banks, about which he said that they "should retain earnings, turn to market to strengthened capital bases, and take full advantage of govt. support measures." In other words, it is once again the banks fault that in the inflationary cycle people will be forced to pay more, as the alternative would see the bankruptcy of numerous financial institutions.
One of the bigger news this morning is the so far unconfirmed report that Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who has been in the running to replace Jean Claude Trichet, has decided against an ECB future, and instead wants to make money at Deutsche Bank. The sudden about turn in the process has left many wondering why so late in the process, and just what about the ECB is it that makes Weber leery of affixing his fate to the central bank without a unified bond printing facility. From BusinessWeek: "Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber will step down and wants to join Deutsche Bank AG, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported today, without saying where it obtained the information."
Earlier today, the ECB decided to keep rates at 1.00%, as expected. There were no major or even minor moves in the EUR pairs following the announcement indicating that rumors of a rate hike by the ECB are still very preliminary. Yet the one issue everyone wants to hear more information on is when the latest "rescue" ponzi scheme, the EFSF, will become active, which will allow Europe to wash its hands of all direct monetization allegations, and blame it all on a CDO. Of course, when the CDO itself implodes it will be Europe, and mostly Germany left to pick up the pieces, which is why Merkel is so far the only party which has refused to endorse the outright monetization power of the EFSF. For an update of the ECB's views on the EFSF watch the press conference starting any minute now.
EURUSD Surges By 200 Pips (To China's Delight) On Trichet Comments That Inflation Cracks Starting To AppearSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2011 09:58 -0400
Those looking for vol in stocks really should shut down their E-Trade account and get some forex terminal. As we have been stating for well over 6 months now, with the Fed artificially ramping stocks, and making stock vol extinct, daytraders continue to be forced to find other avenues to day trade volatility. And the FX is just that market. The EURUSD has just done its daily 200 pip song and dance, putting yet another several hundred Japanese housewives using 50x leverage underwater by 10 times their capital amount. But at least China is happy. Oh and yes, with $4 trillion in FX turnover per day in 2010, this kind of mindblowing volatility is sure to end well.
Jean Claude Trichet has finally learned the Bernank's lesson #1 on Central Bankering: when all else fails, buy it all. The FT reports that according to traders the ECB was on Thursday buying Portuguese and Irish bonds in €100m tranches – four times bigger than previously, which in turn sharply brought down the cost of borrowing for Lisbon and Dublin and sparked a euro rally. Just like in the US, this means that virtually no assets reflect their true value, as the ECB is now monetizing debt, without even having formally announced it is doing so, either in a sterilized or unsterilized fashion. This means that next week's update of the ECB SNP programme will demonstrate a surge in bond buying. This is especially the case when factoring in that Trichet is currently out in the market waving every Portuguese Bond in. It is a sad day that the only way the ECB, just like the Fed, can create an upward move in an asset class only by forcing a short squeeze.
Just kidding. More importantly, it now appears that the $1,400 barrier in spot gold will be breached shortly.