Ireland

Frontrunning: July 25

  • Democrats in disarray on eve of convention to nominate Clinton (Reuters); After Gloating, Democrats Face Unity Problem of Their Own (BBG)
  • Florida nightclub shooting leaves two dead, up to 16 wounded (Reuters)
  • Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike (BBG)
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low as Drilling Increases Amid Surplus (BBG)
  • Fraud Investigation Ricochets Through Hedge Fund Known for Ties to Jewish Community (WSJ)

"It's Not Panicking If You're First" - China Devaluation Is Closer Than Anyone Thinks

People are assuming there’s only one way to fight a war today of global proportions. We're not in that camp. We believe it will come monetarily – not military. At least at first. For once it takes place all bets are off as to what happens next. The obvious first mover advantage for China (and all its current allies) would be to use the rhetoric coming out of the current U.S. political arena, along with current, as well as proposed monetary policies via the Fed, ECB, and Japan.

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner

The political and economic issues broadly discussed in the media usually revolve around political cycles, terrorism, foreign policy, rising debt levels, sluggish economic performance, academic underachievement, environmental problems, ageing demographics and so forth.  In our view, this all ties into a major cycle of history that has been with us for some time, and which has been gaining traction since the 1990s: the end of "Western Civilization" and the transition towards a globalized society.

Nigel Farage Announces European Referendum Tour

Proclaiming his support for new British PM Theresa May, former UKIP head Nigel Farage explained "she has said ‘Brexit means Brexit’ and I believe her," before announcing plans for his European Referendum Tour during a much at the Republican national convention yesterday. Farage told Politico that he would start a tour of European cities in September to help spread the appetite for referendums on EU membership beyond the UK.

Which Countries Have The Most Immigrants?

Immigration is now at the center of American and British politics. Trump and Farage see immigration as an existential threat. But do the United Kingdom and the United States have especially large foreign-born populations? Is the number of foreign-born residents in those countries rising at rates faster than in other countries? And how is the composition of the foreign-born population changing?

Netflix Plummets As Growth Story Comes To A Halt: Company Says "We Are Not Growing As Fast As We Would Lke"

While NFLX moments ago reported Q2 EPS of $0.09 that beat expectations $0.03, the reasons the stock is plunging after hours is because it appears that Netflix growth story is officially over, and not just because the company guided far lower on international net additions, but because as the Company itself admitted, "we are growing, but not as fast as we would like or have been. Disrupting a big market can be bumpy, but the opportunity ahead is as big as ever and we continue to improve every aspect of our business"

Frontrunning: July 18

  • Global stocks rise on SoftBank bid for ARM, dollar up vs yen after Turkey crushes coup (Reuters)
  • U.S. backs justice for coup plotters but urges Turkey to keep rule of law (Reuters)
  • Law and Order Will Be a Big Republican Convention Them (WSJ)
  • SoftBank to buy UK chip designer ARM in $32 billion cash deal (Reuters)
  • Rate-starved U.S. banks happily gobble mortgage business (Reuters)

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

How Did China's GDP Beat? By "Shoveling A Stunning Amount Of Cash Into The Economy"

China's modest GDP stabilization has come at a cost, a big one. Instead of tackling a debt pile estimated by Rabobank at a gargantuan 3.5x of the economy’s size, policy makers are only making it worse with a renewed credit binge. "The amount of cash Beijing is shoveling into the economy is stunning," said Andrew Collier.

Frontrunning: July 14

  • BoE surprises markets by keeping rates on hold, signals August move (Reuters)
  • Bank of England Signals August Stimulus as Rate Kept at 0.5% (BBG)
  • JPMorgan results boost futures, but BoE move trims gains (Reuters)
  • Bernanke Floated Japan Perpetual Debt Idea to Abe Aide Honda (BBG)
  • Oil bounces after big losses but glut persists (Reuters)

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)
  • Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)
  • Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)
  • U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

Spot The Year Of The Tax Inversion

"... the Irish growth numbers 'meaningless', and say nothing about state of domestic economy...we would be laughing if these numbers came out of China..."

Here's How Much Europe Depends On The UK

As the following charts show, Europe can’t afford a break-up with Britain. The EU and Britain, therefore, are likely to reach a trade deal and maintain close economic and military ties despite the Brexit vote.