Ireland

• N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
• N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
• N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
• N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities.

A poll by GPO on Mega TV gave 51.5% in favor of “no” and 48.5% in for “yes”
Metron Analysis on Antenna TV showed “no” leading with 49% vs 46% for “yes”
MRB on Star TV showed “no” leading with 49%-54% vs 46%-51% for “yes”
Marc opinion poll for Alpha TV shows “no” ahead with 49.5%-54.5% vs 45.5%-50.5%

Even if you never intended to offend anyone and you had no idea that your words were insulting, in some countries you can be detained without bail and sentenced to years in prison for such speech. Today, there are highly restrictive hate speech laws in Canada, in Mexico and in virtually every single European nation. The United States is still an exception, but the truth is that our liberties and freedoms are being eroded every single day, and it is only a matter of time until “hate speech laws” are used to take away our freedom of speech too.

"Could deposits below €100k be protected as it happened in Cyprus? The answer depends on the total amount of deposits above €100k. If there are enough of these large deposits above €100k, then most likely any required deposit haircut will be inflicted on these depositors only. There are no recent data on how big this universe of large deposits is. The most recent data from the European Commission suggest that at the end of 2012, covered (i.e. those below €100k) represented 75% of eligible Greek deposits. We suspect this number is now significantly higher leaving little room for depositors with less than €100k to be spared."

"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'." "No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later. "Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever. Choose wisely...

... at this very moment, politicians from Spain's Podemos to Italy Five Star movement are drafting memos demanding that the IMF evaluate their own debt sustainability. Or rather unsustainability.

"Greece is being 'hit', there's no doubt about it," exclaims John Perkins, author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, noting that "[Indebted countries] become servants to what I call the corporatocracy ... today we have a global empire, and it's not an American empire. It's not a national empire... It's a corporate empire, and the big corporations rule."

It appears the sovereign peoples of Europe would not go gently into a Federal States of Europe night. Investors need to prepare for the inevitable political solution: referendums across Europe on the constitution of the Federal States of Europe needed to sustain the Euro. Events this weekend will trigger the search for the democratic legitimacy for the single currency and the centralised constitution it requires... or the demise of the unelected 'king Juncker' and 'queen Lagarde' of the Federal States of Europe.

"...won’t a successful Greece show others that — much as many young people who cannot afford to pay their rent return home — they, too, can return to the way things used to be?..."

Simply put -  Europe can't 'afford' anything positive to come of Greece...

With the ECB reneging on its responsibility as lender of last resort – not the first time it has used its power to political ends in Greece – Greek banks may soon be forced to “bail-in” deposits – i.e. confiscate the cash of their customers.

European investors are increasing purchases of gold as Bloomberg reports, Greece’s turmoil boosts the appeal for an alternative to the euro. Demand from Greek customers for Sovereign gold coins was double the five-month average in June, the U.K. Royal Mint said in an e-mailed statement.As one Frankfurt-based bullion dealer noted, "most of our common gold coins are sold out, when people learned that the Greek banks will be closed, they started to think that it may not be such a bad idea to have some money in gold."

As that €126 billion or so of total ECB/Eurosystem claims on Greek banks were "charged off" in case of a terminal Greek "event" then the entire ECB capital buffer would also be wiped out, leaving the ECB with negative equity. Translated: dear Eurosystem members: we need more cash.

Presented with little comment aside to ask if someone is off-script?

NOONAN: THE CRISIS HAS COMMENCED
SCHAEUBLE SAYS `HELLISH DIFFICULT TASK' ON GREECE
NOONAN: I HAVE SYMPATHY FOR THE GREEK PEOPLE

But always remember, "Greece doesn't matter," which as Mohamed El-Erian explains, is somewhat true, since European leaders have two other existential issues to contend with also...