Ireland

Keynesian policy of manipulating economic “aggregates” through countercyclical macro-measures appeared to work when balance sheets were not stretched to the brink. The glaringly obvious result of such policies, gross capital consumption through malinvestments epitomized through a serial bubble economy, did not discourage our money masters. The best and brightest even suggest bubbles are the only remedy to what they believe is some sort of secular stagnation. Just as drugs, the abuser must increase the dosage to feel the same high and spend accordingly.

For a sense of what is driving sentiment this morning look no further than the Athens stock market which exploded higher yesterday on a Bloomberg story based on "two sources" that Germany was willing to compromise, only to close just as the IMF pulled a classis bad cop and announced it was halting work on Greece, and before further news from Bild that Germany was preparing for a Greek default while Europe had given Greece 24 hours to submit a final, workable proposal. As a result, it tumbled promptly at the open even as optimism persists and since the opening plunge, Greek stocks have continued to climb and are now back to yesterday's euphoric opening levels.

"An early election would be possible, but the least likely: the PM will likely be able to pass an agreement through parliament with opposition support, in turn generating strong incentives for a shift to a more moderate coalition within the existing parliament rather than a new electoral campaign following a painful compromise with European creditors," Deutsche Bank says, laying out the likely outcome if and when Greek PM Alexis Tsipras does finally accept an unpopular deal with creditors.

The “inconsequential” war certainly and drastically changed America, of that there is no doubt. Whether for the good, or bad, you’ll have to decide for yourself. On the positive side, the war did cement American independence. It proved that to defeat America on its home ground, a very, very large army, and a great commitment to prolonged and bloody war, was going to be needed. On the negative side; the war left the country with constitutional revisionism, centralized power, protectionism, mercantilism, expansionism, blind patriotism, and militarism. That decentralist small-government thingy conceived by the Founding Fathers didn’t last very long, did it? One must wonder “War, what is it good for? Was it all worth it?”

Just hours after being force to admit that they were hacked (by Russians apparently), an inspector general's report shows that The IRS has rather remarkably continued to pay refunds on hundreds of thousands of fraudulent tax returns in recent years, and sent dozens of checks to the same addresses, including in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. While some progress has been made, $2.3 billion of real US taxpayer's money was wrongfully refunded to fake US taxpayers... but with this new cyber-attack, we suspect that number will soar.

• FIFA Raided by Swiss Authorities in 2018, 2022 World Cup Probe (BBG)
• Companies Send More Cash Back to Shareholders (WSJ)
• Time Warner Cable Deal Stirs Debt Concerns (WSJ)
• Qatar $200 Billion World Cup Under More Scrutiny Amid FIFA Probe (BBG)
• Philippine, Vietnamese troops play soccer and sing on disputed island (Reuters)
• The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default? (BBG)
• SocGen Deal for Bache Illustrates Commodity-Trading Woe (WSJ)
• China’s Naval Abilities Test Asia’s Insecurities (WSJ)

"Europe faces the risk of a second revolt by Left-wing forces in the South after Portugal’s Socialist Party vowed to defy austerity demands from the country’s creditors and block any further sackings of public officials", The Telegraph reports. In sum, the reason why concessions (any concessions) to the Greeks are a non-starter in Athens' negotiations with creditors is that the IMF, the European Commission, and most especially Germany, want to send a clear message to any other 'leftist radicals' who may be thinking about using the "one move and the idea of EMU indissolubility gets it" routine as a way to negotiate for breathing room on austerity pledges, will get exactly nowhere and will have a very unpleasant time on the way.

Asked whether he would repeat an assurance he gave in late 2012 that Greece wouldn't default, Wolfgang Schäuble told The Wall Street Journal and French daily Les Echos that “I would have to think very hard before repeating this in the current situation.” To which Moody's had just one thing to add: "there is a high likelihood of an imposition of capital controls and a deposit freeze."

“When you have anti-English, pro-European nationalists in Scotland and anti-European, pro-British nationalists in England, spiced up with a few anti-English, pro-European nationalists in Wales and of course, the anti-each-other, pro-whatever your having yourself, British and Irish nationalists in that blissfully incoherent chunk of Ulster – Northern Ireland, you know you’re not in the old UK." Welcome to new Britain, Europe’s 21st century version of the Balkans!

"The borrowings of governments, households, companies and financial firms have risen in almost every big country around the world since the year 2000, relative to their GDP," The Economist notes. Here, graphed, is the evolution of the world's debt addiction from 2000 to 2014.

With each passing year the currency fell in value to ever more absurd depths until by November 1923 an ounce of gold - which had cost 170 Marks only five years previously - was trading at 87,000,000,000,000 Marks per ounce. Silver saw similar price gains (see chart) - or rather to put it more accurately silver too remained a store of value and maintained purchasing power as the currency collapsed.

With a global population of 7.3 billion this works out out at over $27,200 of debt for every man, woman and child alive today. 

How this will not end badly and ugly is hard to see. As we quoted in an earlier article, the number of foodbanks in Britain went from 66 to 421 in the first 5 years of Cameron rule. How many more need to be added before people start setting cities on fire? Or even just: how much more needs to happen before the Scots have had enough? Very much like the Greeks, the Scots unambiguously voted down austerity. And in very much the same fashion, they face an entity that claims to be more powerful and insists on forcing more austerity down their throats anyway. It seems inevitable that at some point these larger entities will start to crack and break down into smaller pieces. As empires always do. Now, the EU was of course never an empire, there’s just tons of bureaucrats dreaming of that, and Britain is a long-decayed empire.

• Fed's Yellen says met firm at heart of leak probes (Reuters)
• EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton Takes Hit in WSJ Poll, but Holds Edge Over GOP Rivals (WSJ)
• China stocks slump on tighter margin rules, IPOs; Hong Kong down (Reuters)
• McDonald’s Chief Promises Turnaround in a Restructuring (NYT)
• German Bond Market Selloff Continues (WSJ)
• Vanguard overtakes Pimco’s Total Return following outflows in wake of Bill Gross’s departure (WSJ)
• EU Demands Concessions as Greece Hurtles Toward Deadlines (BBG)
• Junk Bonds Are The New Haven Assets (BBG)

Gillian Tett, markets and finance commentator and an Assistant Editor and former U.S. Managing Editor of the Financial Times, wrote an important and little noticed article last week questioning complacency on the part of European policy makers regarding a Greek default and potential exit or ‘Grexit’. Tett argues that a Greek failure would lead, as Lehman’s did to “wider policy uncertainty: when Lehman failed, the entire paradigm for finance suddenly seemed unpredictable”.