Crude Oil

Recession Concerns Grow After Gasoline Demand Slides Most In 16 Years

Among the numbers in today's weekly update by the DOE, the most anticipated one was that of implied gasoline demand: what it revealed was troubling, with gasoline demand in the past 4 weeks sliding some 5.2% compared to last week, a level which as Goldman qualified recently, "would require a US recession."

Biggest Gasoline Glut In 27 Years Could Crash Oil Markets

It would be one thing if crude stocks were rising, perhaps because refiners were going offline for maintenance. But if that were the case, then gasoline stocks would draw down on lower refining runs. But if both crude and refined product inventories are going up at the same time, then there should be some reasons for worry.

Gartman Goes Long Crude Oil

"We wish to buy one unit each of Brent and WTI crude upon receipt of this commentary. We’ll risk no more than 3% from the current prices level and if nearby Brent were to trade above $57/barrel and if nearby WTI were trade above $55/barrel and were to remain there “For an hour or so to prove the merits of the moves."

US Futures, European Stocks Rise Despite HSBC Plunge; Dollar, Oil Jump

European stocks rose again with S&P futures higher, while Asian stocks were mixed. The dollar rose jumped on hawkish comments by Philly Fed's Harker, oil rose following optimistic OPEC comments, while gold dropped. Markets have largely ignored results by financial heavyweight HSBC, which posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% plunge in pretax profit.

US Shale Production To Soar By 3.5 Million Barrels/Day Over Next Five Years: BofA Explains Why

Shale oil output in the US may grow significantly over the next five years due to increased activity in oil rigs and fast productivity gains, Bank of America predicts. The key reason: breakeven costs for key major US plays now stand around the $55/bbl mark. Assuming a gradual recovery in oil prices, annual US shale oil growth is expected to rise by 700 thousand b/d annually by 2022: a total increase of 3.5mmbpd.

Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Long Crude Oil

Despite record gluts in crude and gasoline amid resurgent US crude production, hedge funds boosted their net long position in WTI last week to a new record high.  For the first time ever, hedge funds hold more than a billion barrels of bets that crude oil prices will rally.

Why Sub $50 Oil Is More Likely Than $70 Oil

Comparative inventory analysis suggests that the current ~$53 per barrel WTI oil price is at least $6 per barrel too high. Don’t hold your breath for $70 oil prices.