Crude Oil

The US Economy: Back On Track?

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads provides a great snapshot of US economic activity almost in real (weekly) time. Last July we noted that we were starting to witness some signals of a trend change, now suggesting a softening. But much has happened since then, including a broadly unexpected change in the political direction of the US. Have those signals been reversed as a result?

Oil Erases Saudi Jawbone Gains Amid China Glut Concerns

Oil prices rallied the last couple of days on the heels of Saudi jawboning about just how much they cut production, after concerns on US shale production surging. However, prices are falling back as despite near-record imports of crude reported overnight in China, it appears that historical demand has 'glutted' refiners (who exported record product in 2016) leaving a slew of oil tankers stranded off the Chinese coast.

US To Sell 8 Million Barrels Of Oil From The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The US will offer to sell some 8 million barrels from the petroleum reserve. According to the notice of sale, the Energy Department is accepting bids on sweet crude oil until 2pm CT Jan. 17. The contracts will then awarded by the end of January, with early deliveries expected in February and other deliveries in March, April.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead of today's release of the Fed's December minutes.

After Getting Almost Nothing Right In 2016, Here Are Byron Wien's "Ten Surprises" For 2017

After incorrectly predicting virtually every "surprise" for 2016 one year ago, the bulls better beware because in Byron Wien's list of "ten surprises" for 2017, the 83-year-old Blackstoner has turned decidedly bullish this time, and expects the S&P to surge to 2,500 while the US economy grows at a brisk 3%. With that, he may have just doomed any hope for a non-recession in 2017.

2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data.

Kunstler: 2017 Is When The Wheels Finally Come Off

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.