Crude Oil

US Futures, Global Stocks, Metals Rise On Economic Confidence, Upbeat Earnings

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.

5 Negative Factors For Oil Prices

With the value of crude oil price forecasting firmly established (as practically worthless), we will continue to monitor the global crude oil market to assess how events and trends will be impacting the crude oil price. At present we are bearish for crude oil, as we believe the following factors will be driving the oil prices in the short to medium term.

Goldman Cuts S&P500 Earnings Forecasts For The Next Three Years

"We cut our S&P 500 earnings estimates for each of the next several years. Our revised operating EPS forecasts now equal $105 (2016), $116 (2017), and $122 (2018) reflecting annual growth of 5%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. Low interest rates and peaking margins constrain profit growth in Information Technology, Financials, and Telecom and drive the reduction in our index-level EPS forecast." - Goldman Sachs

Global Stocks Jump On Mega Merger Monday, Buoyed By Earnings, PMIs, Politics

Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

'Subtle Forward Guidance' - Trying To Fool The Marginal Oil Investor Everything's Under Control

So-called "forward guidance" is aimed at trying to fool the marginal investor into believing “there is no need for worry, central bankers have everything under control”. Unsurprisingly, as with all psychological conditioning, forward guidance has lost its effect as more and more market participants lose confidence in central banks and their promise that everything will eventually mean revert to happier days... However, this unfortunate practice is making in-roads into the most important of commodity markets: crude oil.

US Futures, Global Stocks Mixed After Lackluster Chinese Economic Data; Oil Rises Over $51

US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.

Oil's Biggest Threat: 'Peak Demand' Within 15 Years?

For more than two years the oil industry has suffered through its worst down cycle since the 1980s; but while oil executives are focusing on survival for the next few years, a much bigger threat looms over the long-term: Peak oil demand.

Can The Market Hang On To Support Here?

It is critical for the markets to “hang on” to current support at the previous breakout highs. A failure to do so will put the markets back into the previous trading range that has existed going back to 2014.

"Big Oil" - The Crude Market Is Larger Than All Metals Markets Combined

The energy industry continues to have huge amounts of influence on our lives. Special interest groups with a focus on energy have influence on a domestic level. Meanwhile, from a foreign policy angle, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia wield additional geopolitical and economic power because of their natural resources. It's even arguable that everything from the Gulf War to the more recent Middle East interventions in Libya, Syria, and Iraq have been at least partially to do with oil.