Crude Oil

Game Theory Trading

The Federal Reserve's and Treasury's actions have become the new catalysts for market movement, as they flood and drain the system with liquidity. An analysis of their options looking forward, particularly in the realm of the high interest rates that QE and the constant equity market bid have left us with, may be a better indicator than any in regards to future market direction.

Daily Highlights: 8.24.09

  • Argentina to offer swap for $2.3B of inflation-linked debt, as export revenues slump.
  • Asian stocks advance on recovery hopes, strong earnings lend support.
  • Auto worker retirees may get help from $10 billion in U.S. Health Proposal
  • Average price of regular gasoline at filling stations slipped to $2.6417 a gallon
  • China commercial-property sales in H1 worth more than US, UK deals combined.
  • Crude oil futures in Asia continued to consolidate on Friday's gains

Daily Highlights: 8.20.09

  • Appliance makers counting on "cash for clunkers"-type rebate program to revive sales.
  • Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday. Shanghai's index rebounds 2.1%.
  • China's first-half current-account surplus reported down 32%.
  • Crude oil futures hit 2-month high as US inventories fell unexpectedly by 8.4M barrels.
  • Democrats prepare to go it alone on health care overhaul without GOP support.
  • GDP in OECD countries stabilized in Q2, with support from exporters Germany, Japan.
  • Obama administration to cut 2009 budget-deficit estimate to $1.58 trillion.
  • Obama administration developing plans to wind down clunker rebates program.

Anxiety Gripping Pai Gow Gamers

Another brutal selloff in the Shanghai last night left many retail stock speculators (aka Pai Gow players) stunned and in shock, frozen with fear.

Daily Highlights: 8.19.09

  • Asia stock markets mixed on uncertain Chinese outlook, improving US economic state.
  • Big retailers reported that American consumers are continuing to hunker down.
  • Crude oil falls, reversing gains, as Chinese equities decline
  • IMF has described a “nascent” global recovery, warns on ending fiscal stimulus.
  • Natural-gas futures fell to a fresh 7-yr low as a glut of the fuel and tepid demand.

These Bears Don't Hibernate

Many bears who accurately forecasted the financial crisis have been caught short in the green shoots rally. What are the bears who also predicted the bounce from March lows saying now, looking forward?

Daily Highlights: 8.14.09

  • Asian stocks gain on speculation improving earnings will extend a 5-month rally in equities.
  • China may boost spending on oil, mining acquisitions by half this year.
  • Crude Oil rises a third day as economic recovery to spur demand for fuels.
  • Hong Kong's yearlong recession may be over as China rebound bolsters trade.
  • India may spark $39B of share sales with cap on controlling stakes.
  • Japanese demand for services unexpectedly rose in June on stimulus measures.
  • US Industrial output probably rebounded in July as auto plants reopened.
Jack H Barnes's picture

In an opinion piece submitted to The Wall Street Journal, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy wrote that governments need to act to curb a "dangerously volatile" oil price that defies "the accepted rules of economics" and "could undermine confidence just as we are pushing for recovery."

Hours earlier in Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main futures-market regulator in the U.S., announced it would hold hearings on whether to introduce tougher regulation of oil-futures markets. The rules, which drew immediate criticism from traders, would seek to curb the influence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and investment banks by limiting how much money any single trader can bet on any one commodity at a given time.

Daily Highlights: 6.30.09

  • Asian stocks rose, with benchmark index set for a record gain.
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch named Erh Fei Liu as its China head of corporate and investment banking.
  • Bernie Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison for bilking investors ranging from hedge funds to charities to retirees of $60B.
  • Broadcom Corp. strengthened its unsolicited offer for Emulex Corp. by 19% to $912M
  • Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Air China Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd. can take some solace from the 43% surge in the price of jet fuel this year.
  • Daily Highlights: 6.26.09

  • Asian Stocks rise on growth optimism.
  • Crude oil rose, exceeding $70/barrel, as Asian equities extended a global stock market rally, raising expectations of fuel demand growth.
  • Initial jobless claims jumped 15,000 to 627,000 last week amid a pickup in layoffs related to the end of the school year.
  • US economy decreased at 5.5% in the 1Q09 after a 6.3% decline in 4Q08.
  • Yields on Fannie and Freddie mort. secs. declined to the lowest pt. in 3 weeks.
  • A common sense guide to investing

    Apologies for the lack of posting but I've been back home, on vacation the past couple of weeks. As you can imagine in this economy, being a "finance" guy in a group of "non-finance" people typically elicits a number of questions, but one that surprisingly came up over and over again was "What do I do?" (i.e. how should I invest). The buy-and-hold model has ruined many people and individual investors seem completely lost now that the standard go-to plan has clearly failed to meet the most basic of objectives: capital preservation in times of need.