Crude Oil

How To Invest In The New World Order

The boom turns to bust as the Eurodollar market breaks. If the cycle gets out of hand, as it did from 2008 onwards, banking solvency is not only limited to local emerging market banks, but to the international banking community at large. This is exactly where we are at now and if history repeats itself, which we believe it will, a new financial crisis is brewing just under the surface as the dollar moves into its second leg.

Goldman Sachs' 2016 Review (Crossword-Style)

The year began with a perfect storm of worries that had become all too familiar already in 2015. Oil prices plunged and fears of faltering growth and a sharp depreciation of China’s currency escalated, driving disruptive sell-offs in credit and other risk assets. Confidence in global growth faltered, particularly after an anemic US GDP report for Q1. But oh, how the world has changed...

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

10 Energy Surprises In 2017

It’s pointless to list the obvious. For oil and gas, pundits know that things like OPEC compliance, U.S. rig counts, pipeline angst, and Chinese consumption are on a long list of standard items that are obligatory to parse from our cluttered news feeds. But what are the nascent items that could lead to unforgiving surprises?

Global Stocks Decline As Trading Volumes Collapse Ahead Of Monte Paschi Nationalization

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all declined amid collapsing volumes, after the Wednesday drop in the S&P500, and after oil prices held losses amid an unexpected increase in supplies, as traders close out trades ahead of the holidays. European stocks edged lower, led by miners, and U.S. stock futures stagnated after the Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to make progress toward 20,000 Wednesday.

Is The Auto Industry Slowdown Signaling Trouble Ahead For The Overall Economy

"Altogether, it is likely that the greater use of incentives, availability of credit, and willingness of automakers to hold additional inventory above historical norms reflect a preference for quantity of sales over quality. These trends have limits, as automakers cannot sacrifice margins and earnings forever.  "As the saying goes, something’s gotta give. We think that time may be coming."

Who Won The 2016 Oil War?

Heading into the New Year with oil prices above US$50, both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry are claiming victory in the latest oil war battle - and both expect to benefit from higher prices, but there can really only be one winner here.

Trump's Oil Price Dilemma

It looks like the president-elect is beginning to assemble a team to deliver on at least part of his campaign promises of 'An America First Energy Plan'. But Trump’s promised rise of oil and gas production over the years could have several consequences...

Frontrunning: December 19

  • Electoral college expected to officially select Trump (Reuters)
  • China says discussing return of undersea drone with U.S. military (Reuters)
  • Neutral PBOC Sets Up First U.S.-China Tightening Since 2006 (BBG)
  • Wall St sleepwalking into Trump volatility surge (FT)
  • Ukraine's largest bank rescued by state, prompts call for calm (Reuters)