I strongly suspect that Ms. Holmes' delusions that she's going to pull herself out of this mess will, at long last, be dismissed when the reaction she gets to this "3 for 1" offer is the sound of crickets.
As is always the case, a ramping bull market hides investor mistakes – it is the bear market that reveals them. The meteoric rise in passive investing is one such 'strategy' sending an important and timely warning. Just remember, everyone is 'passive' until the selling begins.
Just as oil was set to test session lows after another massive oil build, sending US crude inventories to all time highs, many were wondering if the same exact algos that struck for the past weeks, would reappear sending oil surging on negative data would hit again. The answer: a resounding yes.
The global "risk on" melt-up continues. After a modestly hawkish Yellen warned that every meeting is live, and refused to take March off the table, sending the dollar and yield higher and the S&P to fresh record highs, world stocks rose hitting a 21-month high on Wednesday with the dollar rising for the 11th straight day, the longest positive streak since July 2015.
"I still hate crude oil and believe the next surprise will be lower rather than higher. But a little weekend thinking has forced me to re-evaluate the true extent of the supposed extreme speculative positioning..."
European and Asian stocks, S&P futures, bond yields, the dollar and commodity metals are rose, in some cases making new all time highs, lifted by the latest reemergence of the "Trump trades" as hopeful investors once again bet that the U.S. president's tax reform plans will boost economic growth and corporate profits, despite another warning from Goldman that the president's fiscal plan is about to be derailed.
The US Army Corps said in a court filing it has notified Congress that it has granted the final easement needed to finish the controversial Dakota Access pipeline. The easement was needed for Energy Transfer Partners to complete work on the last portion located under Lake Oahe on the 1,172-mile long pipeline.
The dollar rebounded from a key support level, strengthening against all major peers, pushing S&P futures higher as European shares rose, led by basic resources and real estate, while Asian stocks fall. Gold fell from its highest level since November as demand for some haven assets ebbed while global bonds declined. Oil dipped, pressured by a stronger dollar.
The Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL) is a bet on much higher oil prices several years from now. It will take at least $85 oil prices to develop the new oil sand projects needed to fill the pipeline. It is also a bet that U.S. tight oil output will continue to grow and will need heavy oil to blend for refining. Both bets are risky.
"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."
The Trump administration continues to sabre-rattle at global powers and threatens to disrupt the status-quo of international relations. Comments in just 24-hours by Donald Trump and his team have included attacking an Ivy League university, a nuclear power and two of the United States’ key trading partners.
"This is not the first time that an inexperienced person has threatened Iran ... the American government will understand that threatening Iran is useless," Ali Akbar Velayati said, without identifying any U.S. official specifically in his comments.