Crude Oil

Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Overnight, John Williams' latest uberdovish paper "Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World", which we profiled yesterday, and which suggests lower rates for far longer, made the rounds and has led to a steep 0.8% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index, which sank to its weakest since June while the yen strengthened 1.2 percent, slipping briefly below 100 against the greenback for the first time since June 24, pushing oil and gold higher, and Asian shares lower.

Morgan Stanley Says The Oil Squeeze Will End On August 17: Here's Why

"A large option position and delta hedging left the market vulnerable to a rally. Thus, bullish comments from OPEC and the IEA caught the market uniquely offside to reverse bearish positioning (see detail and calcs inside). Yet, once option expiry passes on Aug 17th, this issue should fade. Moreover, this move higher also brought in bullish buying from those who believe the worst is past, and the call skew is now shifted bullish for Sep."

Currency Wars Escalate As Fed Treasuries In Custody Tumble To 2012 Lows

The latest custody data from the Fed shows that reserve manager holdings of Treasuries has tumbled by $17 billion in the past week, to the lowest effective level since late 2012. The prevailing hypothesis is that smaller central banks and reserve managers sell US paper to defend their currencies, while OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia are quietly raising cash in an environment of low oil prices and acute budgetary tightness.

Funny Money Accounting - Why Social Security Will Be Bankrupt In 10 Years

In their most recent report, the so-called “trustees” of the social security system said that the trust fund’s near-term outlook had improved. So the stenographers of the financial press dutifully reported that the day of reckoning when the trust funds run dry has been put off another year - until 2034. The message was essentially take a breath and kick the can. That’s five Presidential elections away! Except that is not what the report really says...

What The Next Gold Confiscation Will Look Like (And How To Protect Yourself)

On April 5, 1933, under the pretext of a national emergency, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's government blatantly stole wealth from the American people. Many worry the U.S. government might confiscate gold again if it becomes desperate enough. Those fears are well-founded, as the U.S. government’s abysmal financial situation is only getting worse.

Thursday Humor: Crude Oil Futures

Forget facts (Saudi output at record high), F##k fundamentals (global growth slowing, global glut rising)... just set the algos to buy on every OPEC headline...

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Misunderstanding The Real Problem: An Updated Version Of The "Peak Oil" Story

The amount of oil (or for that matter, any other resource) isn’t a fixed amount. If the price can be made to rise to a very high level, the quantity that can be extracted will also tend to rise–in fact, by a rather large amount. The “catch” is that wages for the vast majority of workers don’t rise at the same time. As a result, goods made with high-priced oil soon become too expensive for workers to afford, and the economy falls into recession. The result is prices that fall below the cost of production. Thus, the limit on oil supply is not the amount of oil in the ground; instead, it is how high oil prices can rise, without causing serious recession.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks: Here's Why

Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson confirmed overnight that he isn't going to change his bearish oil call any time soon, with a warning that "very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation." Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Oil Surge Continues As Short Squeeze Accelerates

Despite a significant build at Cushing (Genscape +300k), tumbling China demand, and Libyan supply, the ever more financialized crude oil market is aoneway street higher of short-squeezing exuberance. As 2015's August explosion plays out again, WTI Crude just broke back over $43 as record shorts suffer...

Oil Spikes On Renewed OPEC Supply Cut Chatter, Just As Hedge Funds Turn Record Short

The key catalyst for today's spike is another convenient report by OPEC, according to which the oil exporting organization will hold informal talks at an energy conference in September. However. the biggest threat to oil's recent price decline is that, like in February, hedge funds are now massively short. In fact, according to Bloomberg, hedge funds have gone all-in on lower oil prices, counting on seasonal weakness to play out again this year. Specifically, money managers increased wagers on declining crude prices to a record as futures dropped to the lowest in more than three months.