Crude Oil

The winner of a currency war is the country that ends up with the most gold.

• Euro-Area Growth Eases Pressure on Draghi for Stimulus (BBG)
• Germany Beats Growth Estimates With France Amid Recovery (BBG)
• Argentina revises ‘bogus’ inflation figures (FT)
• Wells Fargo edges back into subprime as U.S. mortgage market thaws (Reuters)
• China Banks’ Bad Loans Reach Highest Since Financial Crisis (BBG)
• Time Warner Cable Deal to Test Comcast CEO's Washington Clout (WSJ)
• Risky Loans in Europe Banks’ Dark Corners to Be Exposed  (BBG) - yeah, right... sure
• Gold Extends Climb Above $1,300 as Investors Boost SPDR Holdings (BBG)
• SEC Takes Steps to Stem Courtroom Defeats (WSJ)

After initially sending the all important USDJPY carry pair - and thus all risk assets - into rally mode, the initial euphoria over manipulated Chinese trade data (see China Trade Puzzle Revived as Hong Kong Data Diverge), has all but fizzled and at last check the USDJPY was sliding to its LOD, approaching 102 from the wrong side. That, and a statement by the ECB's Coeure that the ECB is "very seriously" considering a negative deposit rate (and that the OMT is ready to be used even though it obviously isn't following the latest brewhaha from the German top court) have so far defined the overnight session, the latter having sent the EUR sliding across all major pairs.

The potential for a golden age of gas comes along with a big “if” regarding environmental and social impact. The International Energy Agency (IEA) - the "global energy authority" - believes that this age of gas can be golden, and that unconventional gas can be produced in an environmentally acceptable way.

BOTTOM LINE: Fed Chair Yellen's prepared remarks for her semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee were brief and did not contain any major surprises. The testimony itself will begin at 10:00am.

Sometimes, perhaps all too often; investors, traders, economists, and mainstream media anchors miss the forest and see only the trees (growing to the sky or crashing to the floor). To provide some context on the markets, we present the first of three posts of long-term chart series (and by long-term we mean more than a few decades of well-chosen trends) - stock, bond, gold, commodity, and US Dollar prices for the last 240 years...

Whether driven by real supply-demand issues, concerns over terrorism (sparked by the Sochi plane debacle), or hopes a renewed un-tapered QE on the basis of 2 piss-poor jobs reports in a row is unclear. What is clear is that WTI crude is having its best day in over 2 months - now at its highest in 2014, back above $100 a barrel and its most expensive in history for this time of year.

• Here is why AAPL bounced off $500: Apple Repurchases $14 Billion of Own Shares in Two Weeks (WSJ)
• German Court Refers OMT Decision to Europe's Top Court (WSJ)
• Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations (WSJ)
• U.S. job growth seen snapping back from winter chill (Reuters)
• Google to own $750 million Lenovo stake after Motorola deal closes: HK exchange (Reuters)
• Frigid Winter Spells Trouble for U.S. Economy (BBG)
• Winter Games to open, Putin keen to prove doubters wrong (Reuters)
• Regulators Ready to Proceed on Bank Leverage Limit (WSJ)
• Abe Eyes Window for Biggest Military-Rule Change Since WWII (BBG)

How long can economic growth continue in a finite world? In simplest terms, our problem is that we as a people are no longer getting richer. The reason we are getting poorer is because hidden parts of our economy are now absorbing more and more resources, leaving fewer resources to produce the goods and services we are used to buying. The promised collapse, from 1972's The Limits of Growth, is practically right around the corner, beginning in the next year or two. In fact, many aspects of the collapse appear already to be taking place, such as the 2008-2009 Great Recession and the collapse of the economies of smaller countries such as Greece and Spain. How could collapse be so close, with virtually no warning to the population?

It's snowing in New York so the market must be down. Just kidding - everyone know the only thing that matters for the state of global risk is the level of USDJPY and it is this that nearly caused a bump in the night after pushing the Nikkei as low as 13,995, before the Japanese PPT intervened and rammed the carry trade higher, and thus the Japanese index higher by 1.23% before the close of Japan trading. However, since then the USDJPY has failed to levitate as it usually does overnight and at last check was fluctuating within dangerous territory of 101.000, below which there be tigers. The earlier report of European retail sales tumbling by 1.6% on expectations of a modest 0.6% drop from a downward revised 0.9% only confirmed that the last traces of last year's illusionary European recovery have long gone. Then again, it's all the cold weather's fault. In Europe, not in the US that is.

The biggest fear the market currently has is not the ongoing crisis in the Emerging Markets, not the suddenly slowing economy, not even China's credit bubble popping: it is that Bernanke's successor may have suddenly reverted to the "Old Normal" - a regime in which the Fed is not there to provide the training wheels should the S&P suffer a 5%, 10% or 20% (or more) drop. Whether such fears are warranted will be tested as soon as there is indeed a bear market plunge in stocks - the first in nearly three years (incidentally the topic of the Fed's lack of vacalty was covered in a recent Reuters article). So, assuming that indeed the most dramatic change in market dynamics in the past five years has taken place, how does one trade this new world which is so unfamiliar to so many of today's "younger" (and forgotten by many of the older) traders? And, more importantly, how does one look for the signs of a bottom: an Old Normal bottom that is. Courtesy of Convergex' Nicholas Colas, here is a reminder of what to look forward to, for those who are so inclined, to time the next market inflection point.

A month ago, Nigeria's state-owned National Petroleum oil company (NNPC) said it had accounted for all of the $49.8 billion in revenues that were supposed to paid to the government explaining it had spent over $10 bn on subsidies, repairs, and losses on crude oil inventory - "no money is missing," they exclaimed. However, according to Bloomberg, Nigeria's Central Bank governor Lamido Sanusi (often seen at the footer of those emails everyone gets) proclaimed to the government's senate finance committee that NNPC hasn't accounted for $20 billion in revenue. "There is $20 billion that has not come back to us - the burden of proof is on NNPC." That is 8% of GDP! Perhaps dropping a line to some Western central bankers for a temporary bridge loan (because we are sure the money is there) would be appropriate.

Big Oil Is Gaming the System to RAISE Domestic U.S. Prices

Don’t you just hate the smuggish guys that sit behind desks and that say ‘I told you so’? There’s probably only one thing you hate more and that’s the racers that are running to predict the end of the world. Doom and gloom.