International Monetary Fund

Every great con game eventually comes to an end. 

• Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
• Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
• U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
• Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
• Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
• In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
• OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
• China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling  (Reuters)

And just like that, after effectively defaulting to the IMF a month ago, Greece has just re-effectively re-defaulted to the same IMF on its payment due tomorrow, which now will not be made, just as we said it won't. 

Update: GREEK FINANCE MINISTRY REJECTS CREDITORS' BAILOUT PROPOSAL

Anxiety over financial stability and shadow banking risks appear to have force Christine Lagarde and her fellow extrapolators to hit the panic button:

IMF CUTS U.S. 2015 GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.5% FROM 3.1%, URGES FED TO DELAY FIRST RATE INCREASE UNTIL 1H 2016

Adding that they viewed the Dollar as "moderately overvalued" and any more appreciation would be "harmful," it seems global disinflationary pressures have left the IMF no choice but to say publicly what everyone has uttered under their breath. Now Yellen is really cornered.. and just exactly how are the talking heads going to spin this as positive?

"Greece will not make a June 5 repayment to the International Monetary Fund if there is no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its international creditors soon," Reuters reports. PM Alexis Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Wednesday evening, but no deal is expected today.

“The US Congress is largely at fault for all that’s happening,” the former chairman of the Federal Reserve said in Hong Kong on Tuesday. What’s interesting here is the tendency for Americans to view the AIIB as something that was ultimately created by the US — even if only inadvertently.

Both Greece and the troika are said to have devised their own version of a 'final' offer in bailout negotiations, with WSJ saying creditors have prepared a draft agreement for PM Alexis Tsipras to either accept or not. The question now seems to be: how much will the Greek PM have to cede and what does that mean for the Greek government?

• Greece, creditors exchanging documents to reach deal - Commission (Reuters)
• Greece’s Creditors Reach Consensus on Proposal to Athensa (WSJ)
• Greece calls on lenders to accept 'realistic' plan sent on Monday (Reuters)
• Hundreds missing, many elderly tourists, after ship capsizes on China's Yangtze (Reuters)
• Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting as dollar slips (Reuters)
• U.S. Met Secretly With Yemen Rebels (WSJ)
• Euro zone back to inflation as May prices beat forecast (Reuters)
• Patients Get Extreme to Obtain Hepatitis Drug That's 1% the Cost Outside U.S. (BBG)

We have long argued that the most likely endgame for Greece is that PM Tsipras caves to the troika, compromises on the government’s ‘red lines’ and risks a government reshuffle on the way to a third program, thus averting a euro exit and keeping Greece from descending into a drachma death spiral, even as the “solution” effectively strips the Greek people of their right to choose how they want to be governed — a tragically absurd outcome in what is the birthplace of democracy. It now appears that scenario is set to unfold.

"Not only is it possible that we may need to see technical default and deposit blocks in order to come to a new programme, it may be necessary to do so in order to break the current impasse in negotiations," Goldman says, after indicating that a Greek government shakeup is now likely inevitable.

• Senate lets NSA spy program lapse, at least for now (Reuters)
• Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved (BBG)
• Tepid factory data add to Asian gloom (FT)
• Citigroup Likely to Close Banamex USA (WSJ)
• Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession (BBG)
• Greece’s Tsipras Warns Bell May Toll for Europe (BBG)
• Carnegie Mellon Reels After Uber Lures Away Researchers (WSJ)
• Romário leads drive for Brazilian probe into Fifa (FT)
• Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest (Reuters)

On Sunday, PM Alexis Tsipras penned a lengthy statement expressing his frustration at creditors’ insistence on presenting what he calls “absurd proposals” even as the Greek delegation has gone most of the way towards meeting the troika’s demands. "Judging from the present circumstances, it appears that this new European power is being constructed, with Greece being the first victim. To some, this represents a golden opportunity to make an example out of Greece. If some, however, think or want to believe that this decision concerns only Greece, they are making a grave mistake. I would suggest that they re-read Hemingway’s masterpiece, 'For Whom the Bell Tolls.'"

• Former House Speaker Hastert indicted on federal charges (Reuters)
• Blatter expected to win re-election despite soccer corruption scandal (Reuters)
• NYSE Looks to Ease Late-Day Pileup (WSJ)
• What Will Happen to a Generation of Wall Street Traders Who Have Never Seen a Rate Hike? (BBG)
• Japan spending slump casts doubt on central bank optimism  (Reuters)
• Unclear rules, market volatility take toll on bank capital  (Reuters)
• Greece Told Budget a Red Line for Creditors Venting at G-7 (BBG)
• The Economist Who Realized How Crazy We Are (Michael Lewis)
• Pimco Said to Have Considered Goldman’s Cohn for Top Job (BBG)

History has not been kind to major trade blunders. Just as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 sparked a global trade war that may well have put the “great” in the Great Depression, Congressional enactment of enforceable currency rules today could spark retaliatory actions that might devastate the free flow of trade that a sluggish global economy desperately needs.