International Monetary Fund

Broke nations are bailing out other broke nations with borrowed money.  Round and round we go - where we stop nobody knows.  As of April, 41 different countries had active financial "arrangements" with the IMF. Sometimes they are called "bailouts" and sometimes they are called other things, but in every single case they involve loans.  And most of the time, these loans come with very stringent conditions.  It is a form of "global governance" that most people don't even know about. For decades, the IMF has been able to use money as a way to force developing nations to do what it wants them to do.  But up until fairly recently, this had mostly only been done with poor nations.  But now an increasing number of wealthy nations are turning to the IMF for help... so what happens when the nations that primarily fund the IMF start failing themselves?

Is the global economic downturn going to accelerate as we roll into the second half of this year?  There is turmoil in the Middle East, we are seeing things happen in the bond markets that we have not seen happen in more than 30 years, and much of Europe has already plunged into a full-blown economic depression.  Sadly, most Americans will never understand what is happening until financial disaster strikes them personally.  As long as they can go to work during the day and eat frozen pizza and watch reality television at night, most of them will consider everything to be just fine. Unfortunately, the truth is that everything is not fine.

• Egypt Girds for Muslim Brotherhood Protests (WSJ)
• SAC Capital's Steven Cohen Expected to Avoid Criminal Charges (WSJ)
• SAC insider-trading probe could last years (Reuters)
• RBI seen selling dollars around 60.59 levels: dealers (Reuters)
• China signals will cut off credit to rebalance economy (Reuters)
• Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures (BBC)
• Rise in Steel Prices Alarms Buyers (WSJ)
• Draghi-Carney Seek Independence Day Break From Bernanke (BBG)
• Samsung Warns Results Will Miss Forecasts (WSJ)
• Russia Prosecutor Seeks 6 Years in Jail for Putin Critic Navalny (BBG)

And just like that things are going bump in the night once more. First, as previously reported, the $100+ WTI surge continues on fears over how the Egyptian coup will unfold, now that Mursi has a few short hours left until his army-given ultimatum runs out. But it is Europe where things are crashing fast and furious, with the EURUSD tumbling to under 1.2925 overnight and stocks sliding on renewed political risk, with particular underperformance observed over in Portugal, closely followed by its Iberian neighbor Spain, amid concerns that developments in Portugal, where according to some media reports all CDS-PP ministers will resign forcing early elections, will undermine country's ability to continue implementing the agreed bailout measures. As a result, Portuguese bond yields have spiked higher and the 10y bond yield spread are wider by over a whopping 100bps as austerity's "poster child" has rapidly become Europe's forgotten "dunce." The portu-litical crisis has finally arrived.

Yesterday it was the Egyptian military giving president Morsi a two day ultimatum before things "deteriorate", now it is the Eurozone giving Greece a three day ultimatum to "deliver on the conditions attached to its international bailout in order to receive the next tranche of aid" or else.  This links back to the FT report from June 20 that the IMF told Greece it has until the end of July to plug its budget holes, or else. In other words, simple escalation. Of course, maybe it should have been made apparent to Greece back in May 2010 at the time of the first (of many) bailouts that all those tens of billions in sunk costs are actually supposed to lead to economic reforms instead of perpetuating a broken and corrupt political system in which all in efficiencies and failures are blamed on evil (f)austerity.

The late 20th century was a jam-packed time for stock-market crashes that would change, shape and alter our lives in so many ways.

Europe is a disaster-zone. Here’s the round-up of what’s going wrong right now. The longest day? It would have been a long day, whatever happened, so you might as well enjoy it.

As we warned earlier in the week, Greece is notably missing its Troika goals and the issue just became a lot more critical. As The FT reports, the IMF is preparing to suspend aid payments to Greece over what it claims is a EUR 3-4 billion shortfall that has opened up. Between healthcare budget shortfalls, central banks refusing to roll-over Greek bonds, and amid signs that even the scaled-back privatization plans that Athens had agreed to being behind schedule, the IMF - following its own admissions of mistakes in the Greek bailout, has warned EU officials the shortfall will require it to stop aid payments by the end of July. The equity market is already reacting (as is EURJPY - EUR weakness against the big carry pair) to this re-awakening of EU event risk (and the awkward timing with Merkel's election so close) - with the Fed's comfort blanket somewhat removed.

Cyprus' President Nicos Anastasiades has realized (as we warned was inevitable), too late it seems for the thousands of domestic and foreign depositors who were sacrificed at the alter of monetary union, that the TROIKA's terms are "too onerous." Anastasiades has asked EU lenders to unwind the complex restructuring and partial merger of its two largest banks leaving EU officials "puzzled", according to a letter the FT has uncovered, as "essentially, he is asking for a complete reversal of the program." The EU officials claim that the failure to prepare for the bailout’s impact was partially the fault of Mr Anastasiades’ government, which voted down a first agreed rescue before succumbing to a similar deal nine days later. The FT goes on to note that although the letter does not request it explicitly, Mr Anastasiades is in effect asking for further eurozone loans on top of the existing EUR10bn sovereign bailout – something specifically ruled out by a German-led group of countries at the time. The return of beggars-can-be-choosers we presume - or just token gestures to recover some populist support as the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Why do the debt crisis in Cyprus and the subsequent "bail-in" confiscation of bank depositors' money matter? They matter for two reasons: 1. The banking/debt crisis in Cyprus shares many characteristics with other banking/debt crises. 2. The official Eurozone resolution of the crisis--the "bail-in" confiscation of 60% of bank depositors' cash in an involuntary exchange for shares in the bank (which are unlikely to have any future value)--may provide a template for future official resolutions of other banking/debt crises. In other words, since the banking/debt crisis in Cyprus is hardly unique, we can anticipate the resolution (confiscation of deposits) may be applied elsewhere.

• Obama prepares for chilly talks with Putin over Syria (Reuters)
• G8 opens amid dispute on Syria arms (FT)
• Economists Blame Fed for Higher Bond Yields (WSJ) - wait... what? Isn't the "stronger economy" to blame?
• What a novel concept - In the Czech Republic, a spying scandal has forced the PM to resign (BBG)
• Rigged-Benchmark Probes Proliferate From Singapore to UK (BBG)
• Economists Wary as Fed's Next Forecast Looms  (Hilsenleak)
• Banks Balk at New Rules for Small Loans (WSJ)
• Sporadic clashes in Turkey as Erdogan asserts authority (Reuters)

The International Monetary Fund analysts believe that if budgetary cuts are taken away, then it could trim a substantial slice off economic growth in the US. Forecasts could be lower by as much as 1.75%, meaning that growth prospects would be no better than 1.9% in total for this year. 

Paul Fisher Head of Markets at the Bank of England told the economic worriers of the UK that the BoE would not pull the stoppers out on the economic stimulus plan in the UK and that the “macroeconomic outlook here is not as bright as in the US, therefore we are some way behind them in terms of return to anything like trend growth”. Has Mr. Fisher been to the US recently?

Five Eurozone countries now have loans for half a trillion Euros. These members of the Euro currency union are receiving loans from the one of two bailout funds which are financed by the other 12 Eurozone members. Eurozone members receiving assistance from the two European rescue funds do not pay into it. That means the higher the assistance, the higher the obligations of the healthier countries. Germany already guarantees 27 percent of the loans, France 20 percent and Italy 18 percent. The rescue funds borrow capital, guaranteed by nations of the European Union, in the financial markets and then hand the money to the indebted countries. In doing this they engage in a kind of Quantitative Easing where money is printed based upon the various guarantees. None of these guarantees are counted against the liabilities of any country when the debt to GDP ratios are made public. There is a new scheme underway where bondholders would have to pay for the vast amount of any losses with the money of depositors also in question. There is no agreement yet on this plan. What can be said is that the playing field is being tilted with much more risk now placed in the hands of bond owners and depositors.

• S&P Revises U.S. Credit Outlook To "Stable" From Negative

• Fed's Bullard Details How QE Can Be Cut

• Fed Retreat From Bond Buying Expected By Fourth Quarter - Poll

• U.S., Japan Leading Recovery In Major Economies - OECD