International Monetary Fund

The Eurogroup agreed on Monday night to allow Cyprus to change the make up of its controversial deposit tax and President Nicos Anastasiades is now proposing that bank customers with deposits under 20,000 euros should not be taxed at all, while keeping the levy the same for the remaining depositors. However, what’s happened over the past few days and what’s likely to happen in the days and weeks to come has little to do with numbers. It is much more about perceptions. Even if capital flight from Cyprus as a result of this decision is less severe than many fear, even if Cypriot banks survive this real stress test, even if the island’s economy is not set back many years, even if savers in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy don’t panic, the idea of a deposit tax and the way it was adopted has released something poisonous in the air. It is difficult to see how these citizens will be able to trust the system - be it their governments, banks or eurozone partners - in the weeks to come. Belief in countries where the economy is contracting and unemployment growing is already vitreous and planting fears about a possible deposits grab in the future could shatter it completely.

Update: German chancellor, Cypriot president discussed Cyprus rescue, official says. Merkel told Anastasiades that Cyprus can negotiate on rescue     package only with troika: official.

To say that the tensions within the European "Union" are getting unbearable would be an understatement. According to Mega TV, Anastasiades is reported to have said to Rehn and Brok: “When I warned you that there would not be a parliamentary majority to pass the agreement, you didn’t want to listen. Give my regards to Mrs Merkel.” We eagerly wait to hear back what message Merkel has for the Cypriot leader now that the entire plan is falling apart.

• Cypriot Bank Levy Is ‘Ominous’ for Bondholders, Barclays Says (BBG)
• Euro, Stocks Drops; Gold, German Bonds Rally on Cyprus (BBG)
• Total chaos:Cyprus tries to rework divisive bank tax (Reuters)
• More total chaos: Cyprus Prepares New Deposit-Tax Proposal (WSJ)
• Euro Slides Most in 14 Months on Cyprus Turmoil; Yen Strengthens (BBG)
• Osborne to admit fresh blow to debt target (FT)
• Even the Finns are giving up: Finnish Government May Relinquish Deficit Target to Boost Growth (BBG)
• Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks (BBG)
• Australia Faces ‘Massive Hit’ to Government Revenue, Swan Says (BBG)
• Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy (Hilsenrath)
• Obama to Tap Perez for Labor Secretary (WSJ) - and with that the "minorities" quota is full
• Finally, this should be good: BuzzFeed to Launch Business Section (WSJ)

The root of the problem is the manufacture of counterfeit credit. Examples of counterfeit credit include Greek government bonds... Depositors are paid the lowest interest rate of all, and in return are promised to be made whole, even if it means every other class in the capital structure is utterly wiped out. In Cyprus, they were not. This reckless and politically-expedient decision has consequences.

As the President of Cyprus proclaims  to his people that "we' should all take responsibility as his historic decision will "lead to the permanent rescue of the economy," it appears that the settled-upon 9.9% haircut is a 'good deal' compared to the stunning 40% of total deposits that Germany's FinMin Schaeuble and the IMF demanded. This action, his statement notes, enables the rescue of 8,000 banking sector jobs and ensuring the liquidity of the banks, "allowing the economy to proceed decisively to a new beginning." Ekathimerini reports," this is the first time in the eurozone that a levy has been imposed not on the interest of bank accounts but on the capital itself," and was the only way to bridge most of the the gap between the EUR17bn Nicosia needed and the EUR10bn the ESM was offering, though tax on interest in Cypriot banks will also rise to 20-25%. It is the 40% haircut requirement that concerns us the most as clearly going forward that means other nations, starting Monday (or Tuesday given national holidays) see deposit outflows surge, as the willingness to take such steps is now painfully clear.

In August 2011, while undergoing cancer treatments that ultimately failed him, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez began withdrawing 160 tons of gold from U.S., European and Canadian banks. “It’s coming to the place it never should have left. ... The vaults of the central bank of Venezuela, not the bank of London or the bank of the United States. It’s our gold,” he said on national television as crowds cheered armored trucks carrying an initial bullion shipment to the central bank. The Caracas hoard would today be valued at around $9 billion, were it not for the fact that Venezuela has been selling it — about $550 million worth in the first eight months of 2012, according to the IMF. Did further sales follow over the past six months, with proceeds partly paying for the public largesse that helped fuel Chávez’s victorious up-from-the-sickbed presidential run? Thus, there is something less than $8.5 billion in untraceable gold bullion stashed in an extremely politicized city that’s simmering with grudges and dreams. Physical gold is modestly short of priceless to a criminal. What mala gente or dissident generals wouldn’t want some of Chávez’s rich legacy?

Here we go again. As we reported yesterday, Greece was due to present to the Troika "how to cut a massive 150,000 public sector jobs: a move which will result in an immediate surge in public unrest, and an exponential jump in strike activity.... Greece is locked in talks with international creditors in Athens about shrinking the government workforce by enough to keep bailout payments flowing. Identifying redundant positions and putting in place a system that will lead to mandatory exits for about 150,000 civil servants by 2015 is a so-called milestone that will determine whether the country gets a 2.8 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) aid installment due this month. More than a week of talks on that has so far failed to clinch an agreement." Fast forward to today when we learn that any hopes a last minute solution would materialize, allowing the monetary spice to flow and the €2.4 billion loan to be paid, were just dashed following a breakdown in talks between Greece and the Troika. Deja vu all over again.

Since a government austerity plan intended to reduce the risk of a debt crisis and ensure the backing of the ECB took hold last year, Italy's economy has tumbled into one of worst recessions of any euro zone country, and as NY Times reports, among Italy’s estimated six  million companies, businesses of all sizes have been going belly up at the rate of 1,000 a day over the  last year, especially among the small and midsize companies that  represent the backbone of Italy's shrinking economy. With policy "paralysis" now more likely following the recent inconclusive elections, Ken Rogoff warns, "this underscores the likelihood of Italy having a Japan-like decade with phenomenally slow growth," and adds that this raises concerns over "the long-run stability of  growth in the euro zone over all."  Italy’s longstanding problems have grown worse in the last year as tax increases and spending cuts were pressed by Mr. Monti. 50% of small companies - ones with fewer than 50 workers, which constitute the vast majority of Italy’s economy and long provided much of its vitality, that are buckling as banks halt lending and taxes rise - unable to pay their employees on time. With the European Union standing as America's largest trading partner, problems that plague Europe's economy will be felt across the Atlantic.

Yo Liz:  Subsidies for the zombie banks total more than $3 annually for every dollar in income reported by the industry... 

The European Commission is a little embarrassed over a leaked email that warns EC staffers of the threats of traveling in Europe (and most specifically Greece). As The WSJ reports, the note, among other things; encourages staffers to invent a fake life story; warns them not to stand near windows during a protest so as not to provoke “an aggressive reaction” from demonstrators: admonishes officials to avoid bringing sensitive documents to bars or restaurants; and observes that “even the mildest reaction can be misinterpreted by protestors.” The email, published on the To Vima website, has led to an uproar, with some in the Greek press accusing the Commission of scare-mongering and insulting Greek citizens. Seemingly taking a page out of a James Bond novel, the rage against the Troika appears very real as officials warn: people you meet "don't have to know that you work for the [troika], when asked, talk about your previous profession or the one of your best friend." Troika, shaken but not stirred.

China’s foreign currency reserves have surged more than 700% since 2004 and are now enough to buy every central bank’s official gold supply -- twice. The Bloomberg CHART OF THE DAY shows how China’s foreign reserves surpassed the value of all official bullion holdings in January 2004 and rose to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012. The price of gold has failed to keep pace with the surge in the value of Chinese and global foreign exchange holdings. Gold has increased just 263% from 2004 through to February 28, with the registered volume little changed, according to data based on International Monetary Fund and World Gold Council figures. By comparison, China’s reserves rose 721% through 2012, while the combined total among Brazil, Russia and India rose about 400% to $1.1 trillion.

No, American Banks DON'T Need to Be Big to Compete with Bigger Foreign Rivals

Waste and Fraud Are the Real Causes of the Deficit

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Lexington Partners; Tudor Investment, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Bank of Korea; BNP Paribas, Fidelity Investments, Deutsche Bank,, Freeman and Co., Bank America, National Bureau of Economic Research, FDIC, Interamerican Development Bank; 4 hedge funds, BTG Pactual, Gavea Investimentos; Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Einaudi Institute, Bank of Italy; Swiss National Bank; Pension Real Estate Association; Goodwin Proctor, Penn State University, Villanova University, Shroeder’s Investment Management, Premiere, Inc, Muira Global, Bidvest, NRUCF, BTG Asset Management, Futures Industry Association, ACLI, Handelsbanken, National Business Travel Association, Urban Land Institute, Deloitte, CME Group; Barclays Capiital, Treasury Mangement Association, International Monetary Fund; Kairos Investments, Deloitte and Touche, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empreserial de lat Argentina, Handelsbanken, Danske Capital, WIPRO, University of Calgary, Pictet & Cie, Zurich Insurance Company, Central Bank of Chile, and many, many more.

Day after day, whenever anyone challenges the TBTF banks' scale, they are slammed down with a mutually assured destruction message that limitations would impair profitability and weaken the country's position in global finance. So what if you were to discover, based on Bloomberg's calculations, that the largest banks aren't really profitable at all? What if the billions of dollars they allegedly earn for their shareholders were almost entirely a gift from U.S. taxpayers? The stunning truth is that the top-five banks account for $64 billion of an implicit subsidy based on the ludicrous (but entirely real) logic that: The banks that are potentially the most dangerous can borrow at lower rates, because creditors perceive them as too big to fail. Once shareholders fully recognized how poorly the biggest banks perform without government support, they would be motivated to demand better. The market discipline might not please executives, but it would certainly be an improvement over paying banks to put us in danger.