General Motors

One thing that was not mentioned in the otherwise blemish-free GM sales report, is that the biggest reason for the surge in GM "deliveries" was because the car company once again resorted to that old faithful gimmick: dealer channel stuffing. At 728K units in dealer inventory at month end, or 87 days supply, this was the highest number since March 2013, but more troublingly, the monthly rate of increase was the highest since GM's emergency as a "new" company from bankruptcy.

Confused how to trade the second coming of the dot com bubble and a world in which irrational exuberance has hit irrationally exuberant levels? You are not alone. Here is some insight from none other than David Einhorn originating in his latest letter to investors.

In addition to the bevy of ugly European unemployment and inflation news just reported, the overnight session had a dollop of more ugly macro data for the algos to kneejerkingly react to and ramp stocks to fresh time highs on. First it was China, where the PBOC did another reverse repo, however this time at a fixed 4.3% rate, 0.2% higher than the Monday iteration and well above the 3%-handle from early October, indicating that China is truly intent on tightening its monetary conditions. Then Japan confirmed that despite the soaring imported food and energy inflation, wages just refuse to rise, and have declined now for nearly 1.5 years. Then, adding core insult to peripheral injury, Germany reported retail sales that missed expectations of a +0.4% print wildly, declining -0.4% from a prior downward revised 0.5% to -0.2%. And so on: more below. However, as usual what does matter is how the market digests the FOMC news, and for now the sense is that the risk of a December taper has risen based on the FOMC statement language, whether warranted or not, which as a result is pushing futures modestly lower following an epic move higher in the month of October on nothing but pure balance sheet and multiple expansion.  The big data week in the US rolls on with the highlights being the Chicago PMI and initial jobless claims, which are expected to print their first accurate, non-impaired reading since August.

The overnight fireworks out of China's interbank market, which saw a surge in repo and Shibor rates (O/N +78 to 5.23%, 1 Week +64.6 to 5.59%) once more following the lack of a follow through reverse repo as described previously, and once again exposed the rogue gallery of sellside "analysts" as clueless penguins all of whom predicted a quick resumption of Chinese interbank normalcy, did absolutely nothing to make the San Diego's weatherman's forecast of the overnight Fed-driven futures any more difficult: "stocks will be... up. back to you." And so they were, despite as DB puts it, "yesterday saw another round of slightly softer US data that helped drive the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to fresh highs" and "the release of weaker than expected Japanese IP numbers hasn’t dampened sentiment in Japanese equities" or for that matter megacorp Japan Tobacco firing 20% of its workforce - thanks Abenomics. Ah, remember when data mattered? Nevermind - long live and prosper in the New Normal. Heading into US trading, today the markets will be transfixed by the FOMC announcement at 2 pm, which will likely say nothing at all (although there is a chance for a surprise - more shortly), and to a lesser extent the ADP Private Payrolls number, which as many have suggested, that if it prints at 0 or goes negative, 1800 on the S&P is assured as early as today.

Just as it is easy being a weatherman in San Diego ("the weather will be... nice. Back to you"), so the same inductive analysis can be applied to another week of stocks in Bernanke's centrally planned market: "stocks will be... up." Sure enough, as we enter October's last week where the key events will be the conclusion of the S&P earnings season and the October FOMC announcement (not much prop bets on a surprise tapering announcement this time), overnight futures have experienced the latest off the gates, JPY momentum ignition driven melt up.

In what is the most remarkable news of the day, which has so far passed very quietly under the radar, Fosun International, China's largest private-owned conglomerate which invests in commodities, properties and pharmaceuticals also known as "Shanghai's Hutchison Whampoa", announced in a statement filed just as quietly with the Hong Kong stock exchange, that it had purchased JPM's iconic former headquarters, the tower built by none other than David Rockefeller, at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza for a measly $725 million. None of this is particularly newsworthy What is, however, is what Zero Hedge exclusively reported back in March, namely that the very same former JPM HQ at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza is also the building that houses the firm's commercial gold vault: incidentally, the largest in the world. Why? We don't know. We do know that China's gross gold imports from Hong Kong alone have amounted to over 2000 tons in the past two years. This excludes imports from other sources, and certainly internal gold mining and production.  One guess: China has decided it has its fill of domestically held gold and is starting to acquire gold warehouses in the banking capitals of the world. For now the reason why is unclear but we are confident the answer will present itself shortly.

• Headline of the day: U.S. Risks Joining 1933 Germany in Pantheon of Deadbeat Defaults (BBG)
• As Senate wrestles over debt ceiling, Obama stays out of sight (Reuters)
• The "Truckers Ride for the Constitution" that threatened to gum up traffic in the capital was a dud as of Friday afternoon (WSJ)
• China New Yuan Loans Top Estimates as Money-Supply Growth Slows (BBG)
• Vegetable prices fuel Chinese inflation (FT)
• China Slowing Power Use Growth Points To Weaker Output Data (MNI)
• London Wealthy Leave for Country Life as Prices Rise (BBG)
• Gulf oil production hits record (FT)
• Every year like clockwork, analysts start out bizarrely optimistic about future results, then “walk down” their forecasts  (WSJ)
• Weak Exports Show Limits of China’s Growth Model (WSJ)

• Hilsenrath: Tense Negotiations Inside the Fed Produced Muddled Signals to Markets (WSJ)
• Biggest US Foreign Creditors Show Concern on Default Risk (BBG)
• Shutdown Costs at $1.6 Billion With $160 Million Each Day (BBG)
• What default? Republicans downplay impact of U.S. debt limit (Reuters)
• Top Bankers Warn on U.S. Debt Proposal (WSJ)
• India to stick with austerity despite looming election (Reuters)
• Japan's Current-Account Surplus Plunges (WSJ)
• Amazon Wins Ruling for $600 Million CIA Cloud Contract (BBG)
• German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Weak Recovery (BBG)
• Britain's Higgs, Belgium's Englert win 2013 physics Nobel prize (Reuters)
• Supreme Owner Made a Billionaire Feeding U.S. War Machine (BBG)

• Government Shuts Down as Congress Misses Deadline (WSJ); Shutdown starts, 1 million workers on unpaid leave (Reuters); Government Shutdown Begins as Deadlocked Congress Flails (BBG)
• This is not The Onion: Stocks Rise on U.S. Government Shutdown (BBG)
• Pentagon chief says shutdown hurts U.S. credibility with allies (Reuters)
• In historic step, Japan PM hikes tax; will cushion blow to economy (Reuters)
• Obama Says He Won’t Give Into ‘Ideological’ Budget Demand (BBG)
• More part-time warehouse workers: Amazon to Hire 70,000 Workers for the Holidays (WSJ)
• Less full-time legitimate workers: Merck to fire 8,500 workers  (BBG)
• Education cuts hit America’s poor (FT)
• Euro-Zone Factory Growth Slows (WSJ)
• Watchdog Warns EU Not to Water Down Insurance Rules (Reuters)

Every year there seems to be a few momentum stocks defying logic, reality while bleeding all shorts getting in the way.  This year, Tesla Motor is one such stock. 

A few days ago we noted a major Senate demand of the Treasury Secretary that foreign nations' currency manipulations should be punished (supported by American Manufacturers Associations). Today we find out that Eric Holder and his DoJ crew have found that nine Japanese car parts makers have colluded to raise prices. As part of the scheme, more than $5 billion in auto parts were sold to U.S. car manufacturers and installed in cars sold in the United States and elsewhere. The companies will pay more than $1.6bn in criminal fines. Seems like a small price to pay for the Japan being allowed to devalue its currency boosting its own car exports?

• JPMorgan eyes $4bn ‘pay for peace’ deal (FT)
• Prosecutors Pursue Big SAC Settlement (WSJ) - in the US if you are rich enough, no crime is bad enough
• Cruz's Defiant Stand Is Also a Lonely One (WSJ); Texas senator speaks for more than 14 hours (FT)
• Iran Applies Brakes to U.S. Mideast Plans (WSJ)
• Americans in Poll Doubt Economy Rebound in Defiance of Forecasts (BBG)
• Big Banks Cut Basel III Shortfall by $112 Billion at End of 2012 (BBG) - the equivalent of 10 bridges to the Kalahari desert
• Obama’s Jabs at Russia on Syria Shows Diplomacy Tensions (BBG)
• ICAP Staff Face Criminal Charges Tied to Libor  (WSJ)
• Alibaba Is Said to Shift Target for I.P.O. to U.S. From Hong Kong (NYT)
• Home gold rush is over (Reuters)
• Conoco in landmark Alaska drone flight (FT)

Early weakness in Asia driven by US-follow thru selling and ongoing concerns about the us fiscal showdowns as well as the debt ceiling, if not by actual news, resulted in a red close in both the Nikkei and SHCOMP, as well as other regional indices such as the Sensex. This then shifted to Europe, where however stocks reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. There was little in terms of fresh EU related macroeconomic commentary, but according to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU’s biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the “fully loaded” 2019 Basel III requirements to €70.4bln as of December 2012. This is amusing since not one European bank has actually raised capital, but merely redefined what constitutes capital courtesy of a liberal expansion of RWA, Tier 1 and various other meaningless definition which works until such time as the perilous European balance kept together by the non-existent OMT, is tipped over.

• Triumph Confirms 'Era of Merkelism' (Spiegel)
• Merkel must reach out to leftist rivals after poll triumph (Reuters)
• Norwegian Air says both its Dreamliners hit by technical issues (Reuters)
• Chinese court gives Bo Xilai life sentence (CBS)
• Social Dems Deflect Talk of Merkel Alliance (Spiegel)
• Blasts shake Nairobi mall, smoke pours from building (Reuters)
• Open-Government Laws Fuel Hedge-Fund Profits (WSJ)
• Forbes Calls Goldman CEO Holier Than Mother Teresa (Matt Taibbi)
• BlackBerry move away from consumers unlikely to stem decline (Reuters)
• And another Greek strike: Greek teachers, civil servants to strike against layoffs (Reuters)

In a long and proud tradition started by Solyndra and A123, and going through such Tesla ancestors as the Fisker Karma and Coda, the US government continues to demonstrate that when it comes to misallocating capital, albeit in (or due to) the pursuit of noble "green" causes, it has no peer. Fast forward to today, when we find that the latest casualty of a world in which ridiculous business models and lack of cash flows does not result in an Amazon-esque happy ending, is Eco(fa)tality, a maker of batteries and Blink charging stations for electric cars, which overnight filed for bankruptcy. If fact, do not pass go, do not pretend to have anything even remotely close to a sustainable business mode, and go straight to a liquidation auction.