Bank of England

The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets." And following the abysmal data releases from the past three days confirming that the latest centrally-planned attempt to kickstart the global economy has failed, overnight we got even more bad data, first in the form of Australia's trade deficit, and then Germany's factory orders which bombed, and which as Goldman said "seems to reflect genuine weakness in China and emerging markets in general and this will weigh on the German manufacturing sector."

The reaction function of officials takes on added importance in the week ahead.

The poor jobs report weighed on the dollar, but the greenback recovered as the session progressed.  It is not clear the jobs report was a game changer.  Stay tuned.  

Whereas some central banks have become more forthcoming on where they claim their official gold reserves are stored, many of the world’s central banks remain secretive in this regard, with some central bank staff saying that they are not allowed to provide this information, and some central banks just ignoring the question when asked.

News That Matters

Good news! Bad news is again great for stocks, and overnight we had just the right amount of bad news from Japan, China and Europe to send stocks surging on the first day of the final quarter.

• Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
• Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
• Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
• Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
• China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
• German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
• Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)

In yet another indication that manipulation may well be unspoken (or perhaps even spoken) policy at the BOE, new details regarding the UK Serious Fraud Office's investigation into emergency liquidity auctions conducted during the crisis suggest the central bank may have played a direct role in rigging the bids.

This is an important story and shows how China and Russia are increasingly close and strong allies who are flexing their muscles and asserting themselves as rival superpowers to the U.S.

• Commodities in crisis as Asian shares tumble and shipper files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
• Global Rout Eases as S&P 500 Futures Advance With Oil, Glencore (BBG)
• Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy (BBG)
• India cuts interest rates by more than expected (BBC)
• Glencore Rebounds as $50 Billion Plunge Is Seen as Excessive (BBG)
• How Congress May Have Saved Goldman Sachs From Itself (BBG)

The divergence theme is likely to strengthen in the week ahead.  

In considering NIRP, Central bankers are failing to address an even greater potential problem, which could easily become cataclysmic. By forcing people into paying to maintain cash and bank deposits, central bankers are playing fast-and-loose with the public’s patient acceptance that state-issued money actually has any value at all. There is a tension between this cavalier macroeconomic attitude and what amounts to a prospective tax on personal liquidity. Furthermore, NIRP makes the hidden tax of monetary inflation, of which the public is generally unaware, suddenly very visible. We should be in no doubt that increasing public awareness of the true cost to ordinary people of monetary policies, by way of the debate that would be created by the introduction of NIRP, could have very dangerous consequences for the currency.

Earlier today yet another "very serious policy maker" confirmed that cash as we know it, may be on the endangered species list - again, a necessary precondition to make global NIRP effective - when overnight former Bank of England central banker, Charles Goodhart, told a London audience that bills such as the Swiss National Bank’s 1,000-franc note and the European Central Bank’s 500-euro note should be abolished, adding this "move that might also prove beneficial by trimming interest rates."

• Global Markets Rebound on Yellen Speech (WSJ)
• Obama and Putin to meet; Syria and Ukraine vie for attention (Reuters)
• Obama to host China's President Xi amid simmering tensions (Reuters)
• Don't Fall for It, Xi! Chinese Take to Web to Scorn U.S.—and China, Too (BBG)
• Yellen Confirms Fed Still on Track to Raise Rates This Year (BBG)... but is still China dependent?
• Abe's New Economic Plan Confounds Analysts (BBG)
• It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero (BBG)

When risk sold off last week in the wake of the Fed’s so-called “clean relent,” it signalled at best a policy mistake and at worst the loss of any and all credibility. Tonight, Yellen gets a do-over.