The Matrix

Exactly two years ago, some of the more politically biased progressive media outlets (who are quite adept at creating and taking down their own strawmen arguments, if not quite as adept at using an abacus, let alone a calculator) took offense at our article "In Entitlement America, The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year." In it we merely explained what has become the painful reality in America: for increasingly more it is now more lucrative - in the form of actual disposable income - to sit, do nothing, and collect various welfare entitlements, than to work. This is graphically, and very painfully confirmed, in the below chart from Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (a state best known for its broke capital Harrisburg). As quantitied, and explained by Alexander, "the single mom is better off earnings gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045."

While some believe tonight is critical to the future of our nation - and well could be - we believe some will need placating as the results roll across the bottom of their screens and are manipulated in an ever-increasing multitude of 10-dimensional holographic charts that we fully expect to work incorrectly at some point. To fulfil that 'need for numbing', we have found three drinking games of varying suspected quantity that we hope will prove useful. From simple and stand-alone, to team-based and punish-your-friends focused, we believe there is a fair-and-balanced approach here for everyone.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? aka Obama Activates Skynet

No, it is not a glitch in the matrix: we previously used the same title about a month ago when showing the relative imports of crude in the US vs China. This time the topic is slightly different, but the players are the same. The premise: "Japan, US call off joint drill to 'retake' disputed islands fearing backlash from China." At least it is now clear who calls the shots from not only a tactical (see China starts drilling for crude in a US-protected Afghanistan yesterday), but strategic standpoint as well.

As we have explained recently, the US fiscal cliff is a far more important issue 'fundamentally' than the Fed's economic impotence. While most market participants believe some kind of compromise will be reached - in the lame-duck session but not before the election - the possibility of a 3.5% drag on GDP growth is dramatic to say the least in our new normal stagnation. As Goldman notes, the window to address the fiscal cliff ahead of the election has all but closed, the 40% chance of a short-term extension of most current policies is only marginally better than the probability they assign to 'falling off the cliff' at 35%. The base case assumptions and good, bad, and ugly charts of what is possible are concerning especially when a recent survey of asset managers assigned only a 17% chance of congress failing to compromise before year-end. Critically, and not helped by Bernanke's helping hand (in direct opposition to his hopes), resolution of the fiscal cliff will look harder, not easier, to address as we approach the end of the year - and its likely only the market can dictate that direction - as the "consequence is terrible, but bad enough to force a deal."

Over the past months (and particularly in the last weeks), we have increasingly read negative comments on the ongoing zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and in some instances, negative-interest rate policy (NIRP). Today, we want to examine the origins of the idea that ultra-low rates of interest can exist, how this idea came about, why it was flawed and how it leads to an informal economic system. It was a fallacy based on misunderstanding of the rate of interest and human action. Another way of examining this is the following: The zero interest rate indicates that time is free. And as anything that is free is wasted, time will also be wasted. It should be clear that there is an inconsistency in simultaneously believing that investment demand and savings are mainly driven by income but that it is necessary to lower the interest rate to boost investment, as the Fed does... and the Fed is Keynesian! Finally, we note one last thing: As productivity, employment and production decrease, even a steady and low rate of inflation has the potential to morph into hyperinflation.

We have discussed the broad divergences between high-yield credit and equity markets (the former not enjoying the ebullience of the latter) and noted the dismal volume and average trade size of the most recent surge to new highs. Barclays points out one more concerning factor in the rally - the very unusual underperformance of lower quality, higher beta credit. Typically, the B-rated-and-below credits will majorly outperform in any real risk-on rally (just as they did in the first quarter of the year), however, in the last 2-3 months of equity exuberance, this has not been the case at all - as it seems the rally has been used to position in higher quality names (and remain liquid). Just another glimpse of the matrix under the surface.

Just as Germany was warming its "Nein, Nein, Nein" machine, now that Merkel is solidly back from vacation and has caught up with all the desperation emails in the inbox, as reported yesterday, the ECB, in a furious attempt to preempt the unwind of every innuendo, speculation, "unsourced rumor", and everything else the ex-Goldman controlled printer of European currency (which however now and always is powerless without German support) has done in the past month to keep sovereign rates low, has just resorted to yet another deja vu preemption tactic: rate caps on sovereign bonds. Spiegel reports the based on unsourced data, "The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering to establish in its future bond purchases interest rate levels for each country. Thus, it would buy sovereign debt of the crisis countries whenever interest rates exceed a certain spread to German Bunds... At its next meeting in early September, the Governing Council will decide whether the interest rate target is actually installed." Which of course it won't for one simple reason: the same reason the ECB has done lots of talking in the past 3 months, and implemented absolutely nothing: the Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann, and the fact that as Danske (see below) and everyone else already explained when this idea was floated unsuccessfully the first few times, it would require an infinite balance sheet, something the ECB does not have, especially not when Germans are 'consulted.'

Most of you that are taking the time to read this have already experienced some level of "waking up" over the past several years or longer.  Most of you have also probably felt from time to time that the knowledge you possess is a burden and have fully appreciated the meaning of "ignorance is bliss."  We know this because we have felt these very same emotions at times.  The most important thing to remember; however, is that we are just awake individuals within a wave or cycle of awakening.  There were those that came before us and there will be many, many more to come after us. Most importantly, once you are truly awakened you never go back to sleep.

Now even the beggars (Gollum, Barosso, Juncker, Monti and lately Draghi) appear to have given up hope they can be choosers. While on Monday the press was abuzz with speculation that Van Rompuy was about to unveil yet another epic (and completely impractical) plan of future Eurozone integration, the FT now reports that just 24 hours later, "Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, on Tuesday published a significantly scaled-back version of the highly-anticipated plan for the future of the eurozone to be debated at a summit meeting this week. The seven-page plan, which calls for progress towards commonly issued eurozone bonds and the eventual establishment of central EU treasury, is less ambitious and less detailed than earlier drafts, including a 10-page version circulated as recently as Monday." At this rate, the final draft will consist of three pages... of blank checks. And the glitch in the matrix will be complete if the first entity this plan is presented to will be US congress. Which would be oddly fitting: after all someone has to pay for other people's socialism.

When Ron Paul stands up in front of a crowd and explains the fictional-reserve banking system's unreality, some listen, many shrug and bury their heads. When ZeroHedge does the same, comments are heavy but change is slow to come. But when a 12-year-old girl, in a little over five minutes can explain the total farce that is our monetary system, surely people have to listen and break free of the matrix. Victoria Grant, 12, explains how "The banks and the government have colluded to financially enslave the people of Canada," and as CTV notes, 'Grant lays out a brief history of the Canadian banking system, referencing obscure historical figures such as former Vancouver mayor Gerald McGeer and explaining that the Bank of Canada held primary control over government lending until the 1970's. Starting then, she says, governments began borrowing from private banks instead at considerably higher interest rates than those available through the central bank. The result, Grant argues, is a rapidly increasing national debt. The pint-sized pundit is quick to offer a solution. "If the Canadian Government needs money, they can borrow it directly from the Bank of Canada," she says. " ... Canadians would again prosper with real money as the foundation of our economic structure." The truth is out there - whether it comes from Alan Simpson, Ron Paul, ZeroHedge, or a 12-year-old Canadian young lady.

So what did happen in Spain today?  What is causing Spanish bonds to go down so much? The first answer is relatively easy.  Nothing much new happened in Spain today, just variations of the same theme that has been out there for weeks if not months.  What we have is a struggling country with many banks that would view struggling as a compliment. So why are bonds down so much?  Bonds are down because someone had some bonds to sell and that started the cascade.

Just for a moment imagine you are a market maker in the Spanish bond market.  You aren’t even an aggressive market maker, so you just make markets on the 5 year and 10 year bond.... You look up at the street screens and they just went offered.  Cr*p, no street bid. Now what to do? 

Geithner April 2011: Q: “Is there a risk that the United States could lose its AAA credit rating? Yes or no?” - Tim Geithner: “No risk of that.”

....

Geithner April 2012: Q: “If we don't deal with these debt problems we are going to be Greece in two years” - Tim Geithner: “No risk of that.”

Earlier today, the Chinese Internet (yes, it is its own category) experienced a glitch in the matrix. Whether this is due to further potential confusion over the fate of Bo Xilai (and/or any rumors of a concurrent/past/future military coup), or just overall confusion as to what is actually happening in the country, or simply mere censorship gone uber-wild is unclear. As the WSJ explains it, "At around 11 a.m. local time Thursday, China’s Internet suddenly began behaving very strangely. People inside China reported being unable to access some Chinese web sites like Sina’s Corp’s portals as well as popular foreign web sites not normally blocked by China’s firewall. Simultaneously, Internet users outside China, including in Hong Kong, reported difficulties accessing key Chinese sites, like search engine Baidu and the website of the People’s Bank of China." And while we have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes, we are fairly confident what isn't. Such as the country growing at a 9% as has been wildly speculated all day in what some suggest is a leak of Chinese official data. For a glimpse of what is going on, we went to get some local color such as this message board posting at CND.org. Is this the full story? Of course not. But neither are the endless lies peddled by the PBOC and the CCP. Our advice: keep the below in mind while reading any economic data coming out of the country Ministry of Truth and Bureau of Propaganda in the coming weeks and months. Because if today's Internet glitch is any indication, things behind the scenes are truly starting to heat up.

let's be WILDLY positive in our forecasts. lets take this thing to the extreme. if we get wacked [sic] on the ride down-who gives a shit. THE TIME TO GET RADICAL IS NOW. WE HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE.