Testimony

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.

Mass surveillance at home and endless military projection abroad are the twin sides of the same coin of national security, which must simply be maximized as much as possible. Conspicuously missing from President Hollande’s decisive declaration of war however, was any mention of the biggest elephant in the room: state-sponsorship. A senior Western official familiar with a large cache of intelligence obtained this summer told the Guardian that “direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking ISIS members was now ‘undeniable.’”

There’s an old adage among veteran stock traders that goes something like his, “If I told you the news before it were made public – it’s still a 50/50 bet you would guess the market’s reaction correctly.” That was when the markets had some resemblance of normalcy. Today, normalcy has been replaced with sheer lunacy as to the speculation and interpretations for where these markets go from here.

The ECB has real policy choices they will have to choose between, and the implications are real. A further foray into negative deposit rates, extension and enlargement of QE, even a less likely change to the main financing rate. Each choice has externalities internally and is also likely to provoke a reaction from other affected countries. The Riksbank and SNB will be watching as closely as EGB traders. The ECB is in easing mode. The Fed plans to tighten. Relative value trades have further to play out

Once you examine the finer details, it quickly becomes clear that there are five key reasons that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon.

The biggest event overnight came from Europe, where Draghi managed to once again jawbone the Euro lower by ober 50 pips when he told European lawmakers in a prepared testimony that downside economic risks are "clearly visible," repeating his October press conference statement, adding that the ECB will reexamine degree of accommodation in December as "inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened." And the statement that crushed the Euro: "If we were to conclude that our medium-term price stability objective is at risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained." I.e., another "whatever it takes" moment.

• Fed speakers are likely to take focus in the US this week as market participants attempt to forecast the likelihood of a December FOMC rate lift off
• Eurozone GDP release is the most notable Eurozone data of the week, with a possible downbeat reading increasing the possibility of further easing by the ECB

The funds have flowed in a torrent into stocks, bonds, and real estate, just as 1940's NY Fed President Allan Sproul predicted. That flood of easy-money created the delta of plenty in which we live today. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to continue, because funny things happen when you do funny things to money.

The US military-intelligence complex is engaged in systematic preparations for World War III. As far as the Pentagon is concerned, a military conflict with China and/or Russia is inevitable, and this prospect has become the driving force of its tactical and strategic planning. Three congressional hearings Tuesday demonstrated this reality. Contrary to the media portrayal of Washington as deeply divided between parties with intransigently opposed political outlooks, there was bipartisan agreement on this most fundamental of issues, the preparation of a new imperialist world war.

The self-inflicted wounds of Hillary Rodham Clinton just keep manifesting themselves. She has two serious issues that have arisen in the past week; one is political and the other is legal. Both have deception at their root.

There were a few different stories coming out over the last few days that reveal the true nature of government and the apparatchiks who use disinformation, devious machinations, fraudulent accounting, and taxpayer money to cover up their criminality, lies, and the true state of the American economy. The use of government accounting tricks to obscure the truth about our dire financial straits is designed to keep the masses sedated and confused.

For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.

The story behind Malaysia PM Najib Razak's Goldman-backed slush fund just got even stranger as it now appears some $2.3 billion in mystery money tied to an ill-fated investment with the Saudis ended up being managed by an Australian penny stock pusher via a shady Cayman Islands account. 

"As more information has come to light, we have become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device."

"God's plan is not for things to rise in the autumn, that is why it is called fall... If you want to be good with The Almighty, you might want to delay until May."