Bear Stearns

Witches Brew: Part 4 - Reality Bites

• The Specter of Things to Come

The road to ruin is on plain display and the playbook is easily seen at this juncture. Let’s take a look at how that playbook will unfold. Contrary to popular outrage of the SOLUTION being IMPOSED it is the correct one once the insured depositors where PROTECTED.  In this edition the elites suffered FIRST followed by the private sector depositors who foolishly believed false BALANCE sheets which were POLITICALLY CORRECT but PRACTICALLY incorrect fictions approved by fiduciarily (regulations and regulators allowed ONGOING insolvent operations rather than protect the public by ending and prohibiting them) challenged governments (work for the banks and crony capitalists not for the public at large).

50% In Favor of Directly Breaking Them Up ... Many More In Favor of Stopping Artificial Support and Letting them Shrink On Their Own

What is the meaning of the markets hitting new all-time highs.  The general consensus of the analysts and economists is that the rise in capital markets, given weak current economic data and a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, is clearly a sign of economic strength; and, combined with rising corporate profitability, makes stocks the only investment worth having. There is, however, a more pragmatic perspective. Suppressed wage growth, layoffs, cost-cutting, productivity increases, accounting gimmickry and stock buybacks have been the primary factors in surging profitability.  However, these actions are finite in nature and inevitably it will come down to topline revenue growth.  However, since consumer incomes have been cannibalized by suppressed wages and interest rates - there is nowhere left to generate further sales gains from in excess of population growth. The reality is that all the stimulus and financial support available from the Fed, and the government, can't put a broken financial transmission system back together again.  Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge.  Our bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one.

It begins here: Introduction of cold, hard evidence of bank shenanigans (with complete documentation) that A) should be prosecuted & B) cause enough concern to make you worry about your bank's integrity. 

By manipulating the price of money through sustained and historically low interest rates, Greenspan and Bernanke created an era of asset mis-pricing that inevitably would need to correct.  And when market forces attempted to do so in 2008, Paulson et al hoodwinked the world into believing the repercussions would be so calamitous for all that the institutions responsible for the bad actions that instigated the problem needed to be rescued -- in full -- at all costs. David Stockman, former director of the OMB under President Reagan, lays out how we have devolved from a free market economy into a managed one that operates for the benefit of a privileged few.

It's not just Cyprus, and no - it's not just Canada either. I'm preparing a list of specific banks that I have 1st hand knowledge that would prevent me from keeping my money in them. Get "Cyprus'd"!!!

This is precisely what I feared would happen: that any basic rules or laws would be tossed out the window during times of extreme crisis. This has unfortunately proven to be the case.

The IMF offered Cyprus a bailout with no specific amount or even range and no time period while in the process gutting confidence in the banking system by robbing depositors and imposing losses on bondholders. A Damn good plan if I ever heard one!!

Choice excerpts: "Have we forgotten what a bank is & what they are used for?" "The rules haven't been changed, they've been revealed!" Liar... Liar... Ass on Fire!!!

I was a little early, but just as I promised, those European bank runs are coming as expected. Wait until I release my newest EU crash analysis, Lehman x 3, nearly guaranteed!!!

You could even make a case that QE is part of TBTF. Chew on that for a while Shirley.

As is now confirmed, at least one of many JPMorgan margin calls directed at Lehman in the days before the world's biggest bankruptcy became fact, were based on glaringly erroneous information and an error so profound one wonders if this was not a premeditated "hit" on one bank by another bank. Yet a purposeful "hit" orchestrated by one bank, even JPMorgan, would require the involvement of the highest echelons of the US government. So was the US government complicit and give its blessing in this historic liquidation? The Abu Dhabi Investment Council would like to know.

No, American Banks DON'T Need to Be Big to Compete with Bigger Foreign Rivals

The 2011 changes by the FDIC to the safe harbor for "true sales" may have been the end of "Too Big To Fail."

From the "Bear Stearns is fine" man himself, circa 7 hours ago: "It is a monster move. A lot of people being left behind. A lot of shorts. This thing won't die. There is a show, again, very good ratings, The walking dead. You know, you can't shoot this thing. Shoot it in the head and nobody's been able to do it. This thing has legs.... Can't talk enough about it"