Gambling

When we first detailed the link between a devaluing currency, increasing restrictions on outflows of China capital, and Bitcoin, the virtual currency soared (driven by Chinese flows, just as predicted). The last few days, as China has once again started devaluing its currency, authorities once again moved to tighten capital outflows - this time through caps on credit-card withdrawals (as warned here) - and sure enough, Bitcoin has been soaring recently. Specifically, a nationwide crackdown on illegal UnionPay point-of-sale devices, has sparked capital flight (on heavy volume) through the vurtual currrency.

Now that the first casualty in the junk bond space has spilled its blood in the water, the hungry sharks are circling. And perhaps the best place to look for the chum is where Third Avenue itself was discovered: dead last in the morningstar list of worst (and best) performing High Yield funds of 2015...

Gold is one of the few investments that every investor should have in their portfolio. We are now at the dangerous end-game period of a very bold but very reckless & disappointing experiment with the world's fiat (unbacked) currencies. If this experiment fails -- and we observe it's in the process of failing -- gold will provide one of the best forms of wealth insurance. But like all insurance products, it only works if you buy it before you need to rely on it.

"How does all this play out? Timing is the key because as gamblers know there isn’t an endless stream of Martingale chips – even for central bankers acting in unison. One day the negative feedback loop on the real economy will halt the ascent of stock and bond prices and investors will look around like Wile E. Coyote wondering how far is down. But when? When does Martingale meet its inevitable fate? I really don’t know; I’m just certain it will."

In Part I , readers were presented with the inherent criminality and fraud of the crime-euphemism known as “fractional-reserve banking.” In Part II , readers saw how the banking crime syndicate has exploited the opportunities that this institutionalized fraud presents and turned our entire financial system into a teetering Ponzi scheme about to suffer its final collapse.

Even despite the saturation criminality that readers have already seen, many will still argue that we “need” these Big Banks, and that we even “need” fractional-reserve (no reserve) fraud.

Scott Sumner said he had a “modest” proposal: there should be a highly liquid futures market in Nominal Gross Domestic Product. Let's look at that.

• Russia Takes Aim at Turkish Economy Amid Fighter-Jet Spat (WSJ)
• ‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes (RT)
• Russia-Turkey Ties Are Headed Into a Deep Freeze (WSJ)
• France signals softer stance on Assad after Russia talks (FT)
• China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks (BBG)
• China Stock Bulls Hit Breaking Point as State Dials Back Support (BBG)
• China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns (BBG)

“Disregarding these warnings, both planes, at an altitude of 19,000 feet, violated Turkish national airspace to a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length for 17 seconds from 9:24:05 local time."

This is a commentary which should never have needed to be written. 

Roughly 21 tonnes, or 685,652 troy ounces of gold in .999 fine kilo bars, was withdrawn, net of a small deposit of 27,328 ounces, from the Brinks warehouse in Hong Kong yesterday. To put that into some perspective, that is the same amount of all gold in the entire JPM warehouse in the US. The point of this is that the price discovery in New York is becoming increasingly distinct from the actual physical supply and demand flows of bullion which are taking place in Asia... And that is a potentially dangerous development, especially with respect to a commodity that is being traded at a leverage in excess of 200:1.

• GOP debate winners and losers (Hill)
• European Stocks Rise as Dollar Weakens; Metals Decline on China (BBG)
• Global shares shrug off mixed China data, copper teeters near six-year low (Reuters)
• Fed's Evans: Looking forward to time when Fed can raise rates (Reuters)
• Alibaba’s Global Ambitions Face Counterfeit Challenge (WSJ)
• China Rebalancing Takes Hold as Output Slows, Retail Jumps (BBG)

For the third day in a row, China dominated the overnight newsflow with the latest industrial output data, which printed at 5.6% missing expectations of a 5.8% increase, and was tied with March for the lowest print since late 2008.

"All. Bets. Are. Off"...