Poland

Yesterday, the S&P and Nasdaq bounced hard off the pre-payrolls level from Aug 1st. From the moment US cash equity markets closed yesterday, stocks have been dropping back. But now, thanks to this:

SIKORSKI: RUSSIAN UNITS POISED TO PRESSURE OR INVADE UKRAINE

The Dow, S&P and now Nasdaq have tumbled below yesterday's lows, eradicating all the post-payrolls gains in stocks. Treasury yields are tumbling (5bps off highs) and gold and silver and rising.

• New War Risk on Russia Fringes Amid Armenia-Azeri Clashes (BBG)
• Palestinians accuse Israel of breaking seven-hour Gaza truce (Reuters)
• Argentine Default Sours Outlook for Peso as Talks Ordered (BBG)
• Espírito Santo Saga Entangles Swiss Company (WSJ)
• Booming African Lion Economies Gear Up to Emulate Asians (BBG)
• CME Profit Falls as Trading Volume Declines (WSJ)
• Why Recalled Cars Stay on the Road (WSJ)
• London Renters Win in Billionaire Backyard as Prices Soar (BBG)
• Junk-Debt Liquidity Concerns Bring Sales (WSJ)
• Rescuers race to find survivors after 400 die in China quake (AFP)

The 100th anniversary of the beginning of World War I is upon us. Well we should mourn this cataclysmic event and continue to draw lessons from it. We see the same dangers today in the petty but growing conflict over Ukraine between the US and its European satraps and Russia. A conflict over a quasi-nation of absolutely no strategic interest to the United States. American neocons and their Congressional mouthpieces are now calling for NATO to take control of Moldova and Georgia. Conrad von Hotzendorf would have approved. No one in the west is ready to die for Luhansk or Donetsk, but few in 1914 Europe were ready to die for Verdun or Ypres – but millions did.

For reasons that have no rational explanations at this time, the US and Europe have embarked on a concerted program to demonize Putin, ostracize Russia, and bring the world as close to a major conflict as it's been since the Cold War, a time hardly memorable to many in the current crop of our elected officials. A dangerous dynamic is brewing between the West and Russia/Putin. We are seeing a rush to war very similar to the one that led up to Saddam's ouster, but this time, we have much less justification (hard to believe) and the opponent is tremendously more capable. There is little sense in the course the West is currently pursuing, little to gain, and much to lose. The main conclusion here is that not only is the US poking the bear, but it is doing so with increasing frequency and upping the ante dangerously with each step.

Revelations of US secret torture sites overseas and a new Senate investigation revealing widespread horrific CIA torture practices should finally lead to the abolishment of this agency. Far from keeping us safer, CIA covert actions across the globe have led to destruction of countries and societies and unprecedented resentment toward the United States. For our own safety, end the CIA!

In just 800 words Pat Buchanan exposes the sheer juvenile delinquency embodied in Washington’s current Ukrainian fiasco.
What motivates Putin seems simple and understandable. He wants the respect due a world power. He sees himself as protector of the Russians left behind in his “near abroad.” He relishes playing Big Power politics. History is full of such men. But what motivates those on our side who seek every opportunity to restart the Cold War? Is it not a desperate desire to appear once again Churchillian, once again heroic, once again relevant, as they saw themselves in the Cold War that ended so long ago? Who is the real problem here?

Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, Isis, Syria and Turkey are all just pawns in a grotesque geopolitical game. All sides have their narratives. But in all cases, innocents must die ...

Now that the World Cup is over, and following last week's global macro reporting slumber (aside for the Portuguese risk flaring episode of course), things pick up quite a bit in the coming week. Here are the key events.

A look at key events and data in the week ahead.  

Overview of the price action in the forward exchange market and a look ahead.  

The first big wave of embracing a liberal international economic order - relatively free trade, rising international capital flows and rapidly growing global economic integration - resulted in something remarkable. Between 1870 and 1914, there was a 45-year span of rising living standards, stable prices, massive capital investment and prolific technological progress. In terms of overall progress, these four-plus decades have never been equaled — either before or since. Then came the Great War. It involved a scale of total industrial mobilization and financial mayhem that was unlike any that had gone before. In the case of Great Britain, for example, its national debt increased 14-fold.

If We Don't Learn Our History, We're Doomed to  ... "KaBoom!"

• BELKA `REJECTS' NOTION TAPED COMMENTS SHOW HIM CUTTING ANY DEAL
• BELKA SAYS POLISH CENTRAL BANK ISN'T COZY WITH GOVT
• BELKA REITERATES HE DOESN'T PLAN TO RESIGN
• BELKA: RESIGNATION FROM C.BANK WOULD CREATE DANGEROUS PRECEDENT

The holiday shortened, and very busy, week includes the following highlights: [on Monday] US Chicago PMI; [on Tuesday] US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Vehicle Sales, in addition to a host of PMI Manufacturing in various countries; [on Wednesday] US ADP Employment, Factory Orders; [on Thursday] US Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment, MP Decisions by ECB and Riksbank, in addition to various Services and Composite PMIs; [on Friday] US holiday, Germany Factory Orders and Sweden IP.

One hundred years ago today the world was shook loose of its moorings. Every school boy knows that the assassination of the archduke of Austria at Sarajevo was the trigger that incited the bloody, destructive conflagration of the world’s nations known as the Great War. But this senseless eruption of unprecedented industrial state violence did not end with the armistice four years later. In fact, 1914 is the fulcrum of modern history. It is the year the Fed opened-up for business just as the carnage in northern France closed-down the prior magnificent half-century era of liberal internationalism and honest gold-backed money. So it was the Great War’s terrible aftermath - a century of drift toward statism, militarism and fiat money - that was actually triggered by the events at Sarajevo.