Nomura

• Egypt protests continue in crisis over Mursi powers (Reuters)
• Greece hires Deutsche, Morgan Stanley to run Greek voluntary debt buy back, sources say (Kathimerini)
• Executives' Good Luck in Trading Own Stock (WSJ)
• Hollande Presents Mittal Nationalization Among Site Options (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone states face losses on Greek debt (FT)
• Spain's rescued banks to shrink, slash jobs (Reuters)
• EU Approves Spanish Banks' Restructuring Plans (WSJ)
• At SAC, Portfolio Managers Are Treated Like Stocks (BBG)
• China considers easing family planning rules (Reuters)
• European Court to Rule Over ECB’s Secret Greek File (BusinessWeek)
• And another top tick indicator: Asia Funds Buy London Offices in Bet Volatility Is Past (Bloomberg)
• Harvard Doctor Turns Felon After Lure of Insider Trading (BBG)
• Zucker Is Lead Candidate to Head CNN (WSJ) - it's not true until CNN misreports it
• Iran "will press on with enrichment:" nuclear chief (Reuters)

This EU juggler simply has too many balls in the air...

• More QE could distort rather than deliver (FT)
• Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus (BBG)
• EU Leaders Face Greek Aid Gap in Brinkmanship With IMF (BBG)
• Weak data point to bigger economic drag from Sandy (Reuters)
• Shirakawa Pushes Back With Criticism of Abe Unlimited Easing (BBG) But... but... Bernanke??
• French Downgrade Widens Gulf With Germany as Talks Loom (BBG)
• Japanese Poll Shows LDP Advantage Ahead of Election (WSJ)
• BOJ in the Balance as Next Government Picks Top Posts (BBG)
• Exchanges Get Closer Inspection (WSJ)
• Greece edges closer to €44bn bailout (FT)
• Japan Government to Spend 1 Trillion Yen on Next Stimulus (BBG)
• China’s Richest Woman Divorces Husband, Fortune Declines (BBG)

From buy French bonds and the EUR, to sell French bonds and the EUR, every possible opinion is included in the list below.

• Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
• FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
• On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
• Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
• Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
• EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
• Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
• Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
• Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
• Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
• China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
• China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
• Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
• Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
• The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)

In a shining example of the law of unintended consequences, when 2012 started Wall Street bankers had expected that all it would take for bonuses to surge and offset 2011's deplorable comp, is another round of QE. Well, QE came and went, not only in the US, but virtually everywhere else, and sure enough the market traded up to new 5 year highs (and just why of all time highs as well), yet something was not going according to plan: bank revenues. Another side-effect of the Fed buying the long end is everyone piling in and frontrunning Bernanke in the 10-30 Year segment, flattening the curve, and making Net Interest Margin profitability a thing of the past. The result has been a year in which despite stocks rising, banker pay is set to tumble even more (for those lucky enough to still even have a job that is, which for UBS and Nomura means about 80% of the employees a year ago) with traders of cash equities and derivatives set to see another 20% drop in comp from 2011 according to Options Group. The end result: 2012 all in comp will be half of what it was in 2007. Say goodbye to the Master of the Universe - they will now have to settle for a galaxy or two at most.

Perhaps those sage English philosophers 'The Vapors' were on to something 32 years ago when they asked if we were "Turning Japanese" for it seems the following charts from Nomura certainly suggest the US bond market is heading in that direction. From demographics to monetary policy; from investor allocations to flows; and from bond bubbles and volatility to long-term interest-rate paths, it seems we share a lot more than a love for sushi and pachinko with our neigbours across the ocean as we seem to be chasing after many Japanese models (of asset allocation and macro-economics).

Starving a skinny man doesn't make him healthy, but then again neither does shoving 30lbs of food down his throat. When will TPTB start using their heads? As long as policy mistakes are made, contrarian profits can be made as well.

• U.S. Super Storm’s Record Flooding Lands Blackout Blow (Bloomberg)
• Sandy Carves a Path of Destruction Across the U.S. East Coast (WSJ)
• Losses May Exceed Those of 2011 Storm (WSJ)
• Hurricane Sandy Threatens $20 Billion in Economic Damage (Bloomberg)
• Huge fire in Sandy's wake destroys dozens of NYC homes (Reuters)
• Possible levee break in New Jersey floods three towns (Reuters)
• Apple Mobile Software Head Forstall Refused to Sign Apology (WSJ)
• Stagflation in Spain (Bloomberg)
• German Oct. Unemployment Rose Twice as Much as Forecast (Bloomberg)
• A declining Japan loses its once-hopeful champions (WaPo)
• Unable to copy it, China tries building own jet engine (Reuters)
• Obama Signs Disaster Declarations for NY, NJ (YNN)

It was only yesterday that we pointed out the ever decreasing halflives of central bank interventions. We are grateful that none other than the biggest intervention basket case of all came out and proved us 100% correct, when the BOJ announced none other than QE 9 just one month after the impact from QE 8 fizzled about 8 hours after it was disclosed. This time around, the destructive "benefit" to the JPY was negative from the first second, resulting in the first instance of monetary easing that.. wasn't. Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections.

...or not! As can be seen in the chart below showing the change in Spanish retail sales, there is nothing like a tax hike, in this case "Value Added", to completely obliterate any hope of increased economic transactions, monetary velocity or, well, general prosperity. In the least surprising data point of the day, Spanish retail sales plunged at their fastest rate on record (12.6% YoY) to complete the 27th month in a row of YoY drops. This nation whose economy is struggling through its second recession in three years and plagued by chronically high unemployment, has seen only three months of positive YoY comps for retail spending since November 2007. Whether this is a nation retrenching pure-and-simple on the back of anti-growth policies or an increasing amount of retail sales are completed in the gray market is unclear (as we discussed here); one thing is clear, Spain is bad and getting worse (bailout or no bailout), and as Reuters reports: "It's clear there are no signs the crisis is abating," economist at Nomura Silvio Peruzzo said. "The headline (retail) figures show a sharp drop and indicate that domestic demand is not going to be anywhere near what the government is anticipating."

• China May Forgo Easing as Economy Rebounds, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)... or as food and house inflation has never gone away
• China Edges Out U.S. as Top Foreign-Investment Draw Amid World Decline (WSJ)
• Fed to keep buying bonds despite firmer U.S. growth (Reuters)
• Bernanke Seen Attacking Jobless Rate With QE Until His Term Ends (Bloomberg)
• Mortgage applications plunge 12%, down for third week in a row (Dow Jones)
• Exchanges Retreat on Trading Tools - Fund Managers, Regulators Say Certain Orders Are Risky, Aid High-Speed Firms (WSJ)
• Europe Bank Chief to Defend Bond-Buying Plan (WSJ)
• Japan, China Envoys Met Last Week for Talks on Island Feud (Bloomberg)
• Goldman’s Pill Says ‘Guerrilla’ ECB to Impose Losses on Skeptics (BBG)
• Chance rise of an Obama defeat (FT)
• King Says BOE Is Ready to Add to QE If U.K. Recovery Fades (Bloomberg)
• Rajoy Sees Case for Slowing Spain’s Austerity as Economy Shrinks (BusinessWeek)
• Hong Kong Intervenes to Defend Peg as Upper Limit Tested (Bloomberg)

Dow Jones down 250, and a new bearish letter from Bob Janjuah? Lucky coincidence? Or conspiracy? You decide. From Bob: "How to play it? The SPX is the obvious pure risk short because of how rich it is against other equity markets. Outright is fine, so are options. Take a look at January 1350 puts for example currently trading at 20. If doing outright we would recommend a stop just above the recent highs at 1475. We also like the USD and Treasuries because the market has seen time and time again US problems do not lead to selling of (safe) US assets and it can and we think will be the same again."

• Germany will pay Greek aid (Spiegel)
• Spain Banks Face More Pain as Worst-Case Scenario Turns Real (Bloomberg)
• China’s Growth Continues to Slow (WSJ)
• Executives Lack Confidence in U.S. Competitiveness (WSJ)
• Poor Market Conditions will See 180 Solar Manufacturers Fail by 2015 (OilPrice)
• Wen upbeat on China’s economy (FT)
• Gold remains popular, despite the doubts of economists (Economist)
• Armstrong Stands to Lose $30 Million as Sponsors Flee (Bloomberg)
• IMF urges aid for Italy, Spain but Rome baulking (Reuters)
• EU Summit Highlights Financial Divide (WSJ)
• FOMC Straying on Price Target, Former Fed Officials Say (Bloomberg)
• Putin defiant over weapons sales (FT)

• OECD: Japan Public Debt in 'Uncharted Territory' (WSJ)
• Germany holds firm on Greece as IMF pressure mounts (Reuters)
• Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity (FT) - it would be great if someone actually implemented austerity...
• Merkel hints at tax cuts for growth boost (FT)
• Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment (BBG)
• Romney Narrows Gap With Obama in Swing State Polling (BBG)
• Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year (WSJ)
• Softbank Founder Has 300-Year Plan in Wooing Sprint Nextel (BBG)
• Singapore Forgoes Currency Stimulus on Inflation Risk (Bloomberg) - as does China day after day
• Sharp Jabs Dominate Combative Vice-Presidential Debate (WSJ)
• Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Rift After Noda Call (Bloomberg)